The 2016 NFL season is finally here.
With opening kickoff just hours away, the NFL expert panel at Sportsnet has provided its Super Bowl predictions along with all of their picks for the major awards.
The panel includes NFL editor Craig Battle, Sportsnet magazine deputy editor Jordan Heath-Rawlings, associate editor Geoff Lowe, and staff writers Donnovan Bennett, Mike Johnston and Jeff Simmons.
FOOTBALL STREAK presented by Ford: Sign up now to win great prizes!
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
BATTLE: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
He’s the most important player on a great team with a crazy-good track record, and he took a statistical leap last year despite major hurdles. Tom Brady will get consideration, too, after he rips off a string of 300- and 400-yard games in his Deflategate-suspension revenge tour, but he’ll have only 12 games to do damage.
BENNETT: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Let’s not forget how good Rodgers was last year with a bunch of receivers nobody recognized. His best plays were Hail Mary passes to Richard Rodgers and Jeff Janis. James Jones literally got off his couch and became Rodgers’s most reliable target while wearing a hoodie. What is he going to do with Jordy Nelson back for a full year and a healthy Randall Cobb? Put up MVP-like numbers. Plus, his brother Jordan’s performance on The Bachelorette and in the tabloids will serve as added motivation.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: Aaron Rodgers Jordy Nelson is back and healthy. Eddie Lacy looks more spry than ever. Randall Cobb should benefit greatly from Nelson’s return and A-Rod finally has a legit athletic weapon at tight end for the first time in a while. The Packers also have a defence that will require the offence scores in bunches and a division that looks ripe for the picking after Teddy Bridgewater’s injury and Calvin Johnson’s retirement. All the pieces are there for a stunning statistical season.
JOHNSTON: Russell Wilson During the final seven weeks of the 2015 regular season Wilson threw for 1,906 yards (70.97-percent completion percentage), 24 touchdowns and just one interception for a passer rating of 132.8. He won’t put up numbers like that, but he will set new career highs behind centre in a Seahawks offence that will rely more heavily on the passing game.
LOWE: Aaron Rodgers After somewhat of a down year in 2015 (he still had 31 TDs and just eight INTs), Rodgers bounces back this season, reinvigorated by the return of his favourite receiver, Jordy Nelson.
SIMMONS: Aaron Rodgers Rodgers came back down to earth in a trying year without No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson. With a full slate of weapons back in order and a skinnier Eddie Lacy, Rodgers rediscovers his greatness and brings the Packers back into legit contention. Being humbled can do wonders for great players. Russell Wilson and Cam Newton challenge him as well.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
BATTLE: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
First, the counterpoint: If he couldn’t do it last year (136 catches, 1,834 yards, 10 TDs), how is he going to this year? I’m thinking of it like a career-achievement award. It’s borderline criminal he hasn’t been recognized yet, but this year he’ll have buzz from Week 1.
BENNETT: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Not sure if you heard, but they just traded draft picks for Sam Bradford, but Shaun Hill is still the only QB they have who has a grasp of their system. Yeah, he will see eight-man boxes, but he might also see 40 carries a week. If the Vikings are trying to win now and leverage Peterson’s prime they aren’t going to be judicious in their use of him.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
I’m taking Julio because it’s no fun to double up with Rodgers here. And besides, when you break the single-season receiving yardage mark, you automatically get this trophy, right? Because that’s what exactly Jones is going to do this season.
JOHNSTON: Todd Gurley, L.A. Rams
He won’t be in the MVP conversation because the Rams are still a fledgling group in a tough division, however Gurley will cement himself as the clear-cut best running back in the game, surpassing 2,000 yards from scrimmage and averaging at least one touchdown per game.
LOWE: Antonio Brown In all likelihood, the MVP will also be the OPOY but because that would be boring let’s go with Antonio Brown here. He’s the most important player on an offence that’ll put up a lot of points in 2016.
SIMMONS: Antonio Brown No Martavis Bryant. No Le’Veon Bell for three weeks. Injured Ladarius Green. Brown is gonna be a target monster and should put up even better numbers than last season.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
BATTLE: J.J. Watt, Houston Texans
Boring pick every year. Correct pick three out of the last four years. He’s healthy and looks ready to go for Week 1, so that’s enough for me.
BENNETT: Von Miller, Denver Broncos
He has his contract, he has a bunch of new endorsements and he is primed for a big year. What’s more, his toughest competitors have question marks: J.J. Watt is hurt and Josh Norman is no longer in a prime situation. Miller won’t just be dancing in commercials—he’ll be doing many sack dances around fallen quarterbacks.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: Aaron Donald, L.A. Rams Yeah, yeah, JJ Watt. Uh huh, uh huh, Khalil Mack. I hear you on both of those, but Donald seems primed to be an absolute beast on defence for a team that simply won’t win with their offence. LA is going to be under lots of scrutiny this season, and anyone who watches a single half of one of their games will come away noticing the most dominant tackle in football.
JOHNSTON: Khalil Mack, Oakland Raiders
He doesn’t get the type of attention J.J. Watt or even Aaron Donald does even though he’s just as dangerous as them on the line. Mack finished 2015 with 15 sacks (only Watt’s 17.5 was more) and he’ll be even better in 2016.
LOWE: Aaron Donald Even dealing with injuries, it’s completely reasonable to believe J.J. Watt wins this award for the third straight season. But Donald has been an absolute monster since his rookie year, and with the L.A. Spotlight shining on the Rams, No. 99 finally gets the recognition he deserves.
SIMMONS: Khalil Mack Picking him for the second year in a row, so one could say “It’s the Return of the Mack.” The stud pass rusher broke out last season and now has Bruce Irvin on the other side to take some pressure off of him as the Raiders emerge into a playoff-calibre team.
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
BATTLE: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Elliott’s one of a surprisingly small group of clear-cut No. 1 RBs in the league, and the Cowboys’ offensive line is so good that they got Darren McFadden to 1,089 yards (on 4.6 yards per carry) last year. That’s Elliott’s floor. And it’ll be good enough to cake-walk to OROY.
BENNETT: Ezekiel Elliott This pick is starting to become so consensus that is almost certain not to happen. Yet and still I can’t go against the best offensive rookie running behind one of the best offensive lines in football. And with Romo hurt they’ll be running it more than normal.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
For a draft class thought to be relatively weak, there sure are a bunch of options here. But yet, Cowboys back Ezekiel Elliot is somehow the automatic consensus pick. Listen, Elliot is great but he’s not even the rookie most important to his own team’s success. That would be Dak Prescott. All things being equal, this is an award for the most competent rookie quarterback who starts, and I’m betting that’s Wentz, who has the chutzpah to wing the ball downfield from day one.
JOHNSTON: Ezekiel Elliott No, it’s not a sexy or surprising pick. But you saw what he did to Kam Chancellor in the pre-season, right?
LOWE: Ezekiel Elliott Even I would have some success behind that Cowboys offensive line, so you can only imagine what a running back with the all-around talent Elliott has will be able to do.
SIMMONS: Ezekiel Elliott No brainer. Playing behind the best offensive line in football by a large margin, Elliott puts up better numbers across the board than Todd Gurley did last season. Elliott is in position to be one of the most productive rookie runners in league history.
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
BATTLE: Emmanuel Ogbah, Cleveland Browns
One, the outside linebacker is good. Two, he’s about the only linebacker left on the roster after the Browns gutted the defence this off-season, letting go of Karlos Dansby and Paul Kruger, among others. The defence has to accumulate some stats this season, and Ogbah will get more than his fair share as the No. 1 guy on the depth chart from the get-go.
BENNETT: A Jacksonville Jaguar
In 20 or 25 years we could see Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack go into the Hall of Fame together. They’ll be the pillars of a crazy-good defence with a new-age nickname like the “millennial mashers” or the “Snapchat sackers.” Gus Bradley groomed great defensive players as the coordinator in Seattle, so expect him to do the same in Jacksonville.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: Deion Jones, Atlanta Falcons Think Luke Kuechly when you think of Jones. Fast and versatile, he arrives to anchor a defence that has been adrift in the linebacking corps for years. He’ll start from day one and have a chance at triple-digit tackle numbers. That’s usually a recipe for rookie defender success.
JOHNSTON: Jalen Ramsey, Jacksonville Jaguars The Jaguars have a handful of exciting players on defence making their NFL debuts this year—Myles Jack and Dante Fowler Jr., to name a couple—and Ramsey is the best of the bunch. It won’t take long for him to establish himself as a true shutdown corner.
LOWE: Jalen Ramsey A year after Chiefs cornerback Marcus Smith took home these honours, Ramsey makes it two years in a row at the position after playing a crucial role this season on a much-improved Jaguars defence.
SIMMONS: DeForest Buckner, San Francisco 49ers
Chip Kelly’s offensive scheme will create a lot of quick three-and-outs, meaning San Francisco’s defence will be on the field way too frequently and Buckner will have plenty of time to run up his statistics. He’s one of the few bright spots an otherwise terrible team.
COACH OF THE YEAR
BATTLE: Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
The only thing keeping Belichick from winning this award every year is the lack of narrative/sufficiently mitigating circumstances. This year? He’s losing Tom Brady for four games. That’ll make their 12 or 13 wins more noteworthy than usual, and earn him the hardware.
BENNETT: Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings Winning this award is about narrative. Who is perceived to have done the most with the least? (Otherwise Bill Belichick would win it every year.) With Teddy Bridgewater injured, the Vikings are perceived to be a wounded animal. The truth is Bridgewater didn’t throw that much or that accurately when the Vikings made the playoffs last year. The Vikings will be better than expected and Zimmer will be praised as the miracle worker.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks I have no idea how Carroll has been stiffed by voters during his second NFL stint, but the man who rebuilt the Seahawks into a perennial Super Bowl threat finally gets his due this year—as the ‘Hawks get the top seed in the NFC.
JOHNSTON: Jack Del Rio, Oakland Raiders The Raiders are my dark horse team this year. Look for them to go from a seven-win team to a 10-win squad, make the playoffs and challenge for the AFC West title.
LOWE: Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings Despite losing Teddy Bridgewater, the Vikings go on to make the playoffs and Zimmer takes home this well-deserved award.
SIMMONS: Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans Despite making the playoffs with terrible quarterbacking last season, this is the year where Houston transitions into a legit Super Bowl contender. The defence should be money again and with all the speed on offence and a new quarterback, Houston has a chance to be great in an improved division.
AFC CHAMPION
BATTLE: New England I want to say Cincinnati. I just can’t their loss in the 2015 playoffs out of my head long enough to do it.
BENNETT: Cincinnati
If Andy Dalton hadn’t broken his thumb there is a good chance this could have happened a year ago. They lost depth at receiver but the one that matters, A.J. Green, is still around and entering his prime. If Marvin Lewis breaks the curse (five straight playoff appearances without a win), it will be in a big way.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: Houston I’m out on a limb here, I realize, but all it takes is one competent season from Brock Osweiler to take the Texans to the promised land. They already have the defence, the receivers and the running back to do it. If their offensive line is solid and their new QB can find DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, why can’t they topple the Patriots? Right? …Right?
JOHNSTON: Houston Bill O’Brien’s group finally has what looks to be a dangerous offence to go with their top-five defence. Add that to the fact they play in what should still be a weak division and a strong regular season record will lead to an easier playoff schedule.
LOWE: Pittsburgh Despite some big questions on defence (especially in the secondary), the Pittsburgh offence does some major damage this season. Boasting the NFL’s top-scoring unit, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers outduel Tom Brady and the Patriots in the AFC championship.
SIMMONS: New England Thought long and hard about Pittsburgh or Houston here, but New England will have a fresh Tom Brady down the stretch with improved weapons (Martellus Bennett and Chris Hogan), and it’s tough for an otherwise-mediocre AFC to match that.
NFC CHAMPION
BATTLE: Carolina
Scary to think of what Newton will do with his No. 1 receiving option back, and I have faith that Ron Rivera and the coaching staff will get past the losses on defence.
BENNETT: Carolina See below.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: Seattle Russell Wilson is emerging as the best quarterback in football, the defence looks as good as ever and instead of Marshawn Lynch there are there backs on the sidelines just waiting for their chance to run away with the gig. Oh and Tyler Lockett is ridiculous, and the team is as well-coached as any in football.
JOHNSTON: Green Bay This was a tossup between Seattle and Green Bay, but I’ll give the edge to Mike McCarthy’s group led by the best quarterback in football, a healthy stable of receivers, a slimmed-down Eddie Lacy and an impressive secondary.
LOWE: Seattle At this point it’s almost guaranteed the Seahawks will have one of the NFL’s top defences, but this season Russell Wilson and the offence steal the show. The combination of a top-10 offence and a stout defence takes Seattle to its third Super Bowl in four years.
SIMMONS: Seattle Last year was a down year for Seattle but they rebound as Russell Wilson continues his transition into an elite passer and the team rediscovers their swagger after being humbled over the last year. Wilson is surrounded by the best group of weapons of his career so the defence doesn’t need to carry the team this time around. Arizona, Green Bay, and Carolina are right in the mix, however.
SUPER BOWL CHAMPION
BATTLE: New England It’s the epitome of safe bets, but they’ll benefit from a lack of elite, playoff-tested teams at the top of the AFC, and they’ll have a psychological edge over whoever they play in the Super Bowl. Health permitting, the Lombardi Trophy could be heading back to Boston.
BENNETT: Carolina You often need to go through championship heartbreak before you break through (see the 2014 and 2015 Broncos). Their defence takes a hit with the loss of Josh Norman, but a healthy Kelvin Benjamin boosts their offensive potential considerably. On paper they’re still the class of the league.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: Seattle See above. It’s hard to find a weakness on this team. Their only flaw a few years ago was a lack of sudden playmakers. Lockett—one of the league’s most dynamic return men as well as a versatile pass-catcher–as well as field stretcher Paul Richardson give them those options, and while they might not boast as many All-Pros as they did in their previous title run, they’re deeper almost everywhere on the roster.
JOHNSTON: Green Bay Get ready to celebrate, cheeseheads! Aaron Rodgers will pick up his second Super Bowl MVP by throwing for 300+ yards, three touchdowns and rushing one in for good measure.
LOWE: Seattle In a rematch of Super Bowl 40, the Seahawks get their revenge over Big Ben and the Steelers with Wilson taking home MVP honours.
SIMMONS: New England A rematch of Super Bowl 49 would be awesome, especially if it includes soundbites from the Bennett brothers. But this time, Wilson doesn’t throw the game away on the goal line. It’s the defence that is unable to contain New England’s tight end duo and the Seahawks come up short for the second time in three years.