Every Sunday morning Sportsnet’s NFL experts will serve up a playbook containing the 10 things you need to know as of a few hours before kickoff. Whether you play fantasy football, like to wager or just want to sound smart at your local watering hole, we’ve got you covered.
1. The Game Of The Week
The AFC MVP Championship Game: There are plenty of divisional battles this week, and a few more obvious choices for this spot–and we’ll get to them later. But here’s what you’ll get with this one: A divisional game that offers the favourite a chance to clinch a spot, sure, but also a direct matchup between, really, the two best players in the entire AFC this year. Aaron Rodgers might be the favourite to win the Most Valuable Player award, but his chief rival is either JJ Watt or Andrew Luck, and probably whichever one has the better game Sunday. If Watt can somehow lead the Texans to a win, which would put them just one game back with two to play, the clamour for the lineman to get the trophy over the quarterbacks would only get louder. At some point in this game, Luck will be holding the football, avoiding the blitz, waiting for TY Hilton to get open, and Watt will shed a block and come at him full speed. Luck will have less than two seconds to get rid of the ball. That’s the best one-on-one matchup you’ll see on any football field today.
There’s also a hidden bonus in this tilt, which is the emergence of…
The Fantasy Sleepers
2. Donte Moncrief, WR, IND: Reggie Wayne’s shoulder is in bad shape. Hakeem Nicks has been terrible for years now. Moncrief, a six-foot-two, 221 lb. rookie with blazing speed and getting-better-quickly hands, has been making great strides the last few weeks. Now Wayne may not be able to go at all, and we may see the full explosion. Are you a severe underdog who needs an unexpected 25 points? Go get ‘im.
3. James Starks, RB, GB: Eddie Lacy’s probably going to play, but he’s far from 100 percent, and Starks will no doubt handle multiple series of work with the chance for more. After disappointing a couple of years ago in his shot at the starting gig, Starks has quietly become one of the best backup running backs in all of football. The Bills front seven is exceedingly tough, which caps his upside somewhat–but the Broncos ran on them last week and the Packers are built similarly: With Rodgers under centre you simply can’t sell out to stop the run. The holes will be there. Starks can hit them.
4. Harry Douglas, WR, ATL: In what should be a shootout against the Steelers, Douglas projects to see a big chunk of targets. Julio Jones will reportedly be no more than a decoy even if he suits up. Douglas, like Starks, is one of those players who excels in a lesser role. He’ll never be a top-two receiver, but every time Julio or Roddy White hit the sidelines–as White did two weeks ago, when Douglas caught nine balls for 116 yards–he fills in more than admirably.
The Numbers
5. 22.2: The quarterback rating allowed by Vikings’ emerging shutdown corner Xavier Rhodes on passes thrown in his direction over the last four games, a number second only to Richard Sherman in that time span. On paper, the Lions-Vikings game looks like a solid matchup for the Lions offence, but Rhodes may–just may–be able to neutralize Calvin Johnson, and when that happens Detroit’s unit has a tendency to implode.
6. 7-4: Peyton Manning’s touchdown-to-interception ratio over the past four weeks. Previously, it was 4.14: 1, or roughly 16 TDs for every four picks. So what’s wrong? Nothing. The past month has seen the Broncos face the Rams, Dolphins, Chiefs and Bills–four of the league’s best defences–and for three of those weeks, Manning was missing his favourite red zone target in TE Julius Thomas. Julius returns today, and the Chargers might not be a doormat, but their secondary is banged up and they’ve given up 30-plus points in three of their last six games.
7. 2: Johnny Manziel’s jersey number. What, you thought we’d go without a single Johnny Football point?! Never. The change should have come weeks ago–the Browns have an aversion to taking risks that could come with big rewards, which is why Isiah Crowell sat on the sidelines so long and Miles Austin was a starting receiver this season. But regardless, it’s here now and fantastic or flame-out it will be something to see. If you’re looking for a real number here, how about 1:8—Brian Hoyer’s TD:INT ratio in the month leading up to Johnny’s debut.
The Plotlines
1 p.m.
8. Steelers at Falcons: Yeah the Falcons are just 5-8 and the Steelers are 8-5. So what? This is still somehow a clash of two teams battling for their respective division leads. Anytime you can throw some of the league’s best playmakers (with the potential absence of Julio Jones) up against defences that can best be described as disinterested, we’re watching. A win here would give the Falcons sole possession (at 6-8!) of the NFC South lead, at least until the Saints get the chance to embarrass this division further on Monday Night Football tomorrow.
4:05 p.m.
9. Broncos at Chargers: If the Chargers want a shot at a playoff home game, this is a must-win. Of course, a must-win against the Broncos, who are 11-0 in recent division play, is a terrible place to be. This is a great test for San Diego, though, as the Bills demonstrated last week that it’s possible to slow Denver’s passing offence down–the Bills lost that game, mind you, but it was closer than it looked. The Chargers might have coverage problems, but their pass rush has been picking up the pace lately and needs to get to Peyton Manning quickly in order to give Philip Rivers and company a low score to shoot for.
Sunday Night
10. Cowboys at Eagles: Oh Football Gods, thank you for the glorious opportunity to watch a Philly-Dallas high-stakes game in prime time in which a Dallas loss will all but eliminate them for the NFC East race. The potential for everything is on the table here: A Dez Bryant classic featuring 150 yards and two TDs, or a Dez Bryant classic featuring multiple shots of him on the sideline screaming at his teammates. The key to this game will be pass protection. If the Cowboys can get it–and they didn’t, at all, a few weeks ago when the Eagles humiliated them in Dallas on Thanksgiving–then this should be a crazily entertaining shootout. If they can’t, then the Eagles could run away with it early and we can all watch the Cowboys implode on the sidelines. Either way, kind of a win-win.