What do C.J. Spiller, Marcell Dareus, Stephon Gilmore, EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins have in common? Each player was selected in the first-round by the Buffalo Bills, and in the lead-up to their respective drafts all went on official visits to One Bills Drive.
That makes five straight drafts in which Buffalo has made a first-round choice from among the group of players who stopped by Orchard Park in advance.
GM Doug Whaley estimated that 25 or 26 prospects came to Western New York before the April 20 deadline this season, the last day teams could bring players in. Of that group 22 names have been reported by various media outlets, which should provide a strong idea of who the Bills could target with the No. 19 pick Thursday night.
“We don’t bring guys in just to bring them in,” said team director of player personnel Jim Monos at the Bills’ pre-draft press conference.
Armed with that knowledge, let’s break down the Bills’ biggest areas of need—and biggest challenges—heading into the 2016 NFL Draft.
Pivotal position
Heading into the NFL Draft, the Bills have just two quarterbacks on the roster, Tyrod Taylor and 2013 first-round pick EJ Manuel. Just based off that, Buffalo could use at least one more signal caller and Whaley knows it, too.
“I would say there is a very, very good possibility we will be drafting a quarterback,” Whaley said.
Michigan State’s Connor Cook, Ohio State’s Cardale Jones and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott all went on visits to Orchard Park. And Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg has been linked to the Bills too. Each prospect is built like a prototypical NFL QB. Prescott is the most mobile and capable runner of the group by far.
Taking a quarterback in round one would surprise a lot of draftniks, but Buffalo’s GM hasn’t ruled out the possibility.
“It might be a first-round guy,” Whaley said. “You just never know.”
Defensive upgrades
With head coach Rex Ryan admitting his Bills defence was terrible in 2015, reinforcements on that side of the ball would make sense—especially players capable of stepping in and being productive instantly with the departures of starters Mario Williams (Dolphins) and Nigel Bradham (Eagles). Also, after recording a franchise-record-low 21 sacks in 2015, Buffalo needs pass-rush help.
Sixteen of the known prospects who visited Buffalo were defensive players, and that group included six D-linemen—Jarran Reed, Sheldon Rankins, Vernon Butler, Emmanuel Ogbah, Adolphus Washington and Bronson Kaufusi—and five linebackers—Darron Lee, Reggie Ragland, Leonard Floyd, Su’a Cravens and Antonio Morrison.
Along the D-line, Reed, who was a two-year starter at Alabama, could fit well in Ryan’s defensive scheme because he can play tackle and end while being stout against the run with the ability to push the pocket on passing downs.
Ohio State’s Lee is undersized, but his speed and instincts would give the Bills a cover linebacker and explosive blitzer. Meanwhile Ragland, out of Alabama, can be a thumper at inside ’backer.
If Whaley and Ryan feel like going outside the group they brought in, Ole Miss defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche might be available when they pick at No. 19. He possesses all the physical ability to be a top-five pick, but lack of production and effort, plus off-field concerns have caused the polarizing big man to fall. That said, Buffalo has not been afraid to give players like Richie Incognito an opportunity.
No. 2 receiver
Whether or not trading up for Sammy Watkins in the 2014 draft was worth it, he instantly proved to be the Bills’ best threat in the passing game and has piled up 2,029 yards and 15 touchdowns in two NFL seasons. A bonafide second receiver could help take Buffalo’s passing game to the next level—like during the Eric Moulds/Peerless Price era.
TCU speedster Kolby Listenbee made a pre-draft stop with the Bills. And quarterback-turned-receiver Braxton Miller has caught the eye of talent evaluators in Buffalo.
“I think [Miller] is ready to play,” Monos said. “That guy is a competitor.”
Even if Listenbee or Miller aren’t picked by the Bills, expect at least one receiver to be added through the draft.
Poor drafting record
One of the main reasons Buffalo has failed to reach the playoffs since 1999—the longest active drought in the NFL if you haven’t heard—is a terrible drafting history through the last 20 years.
According to an in-depth Washington Post study, the Bills rank third-worst among all 32 NFL teams based on picks made since 1996.
On the other end of the spectrum, Pittsburgh, New England, Green Bay and Seattle have made themselves perennial contenders by building through the draft. If Buffalo wants to finally reach the post-season, they need to do the same.
Five core players have been selected in the past two years: Sammy Watkins, Preston Brown, Seantrel Henderson, Ronald Darby and Karlos Williams. Armed with eight selections in the 2016 pick-fest, the Bills need to continue finding starting-calibre prospects at a similar rate to 2014 and 2015. That will make the “p” word a much more realistic possibility in Buffalo.