The NFL season has now hit the quarter mark for all teams, so it feels like a good time to look back at the many QB quandaries so many teams faced this off-season.
It’s no coincidence that the teams that have charted the best plans for their precarious QB situations are ones led by former QBs:
- Denver is run by a Hall of Fame QB in John Elway and coached by his former backup, Gary Kubiak.
- Philadelphia’s head coach is former NFL backup Doug Pederson and their offensive coordinator is Frank Reich, longtime NFL QB and author of The Comeback.
- In Dallas, former NFL backup Jason Garrett and former NFL QB draft pick Scott Linehan run the team and call the plays respectively.
But not all teams are so well set up, and not everyone had the same type of success. The returns on the many QB decisions made last winter have been vastly different despite organizations facing similar scenarios.
First they drafted a guy that Cleveland—a team in desperate need of a QB for the past 17 years—didn’t want. Then they handed the keys to him in Week 1. And despite being hurt and not playing much in the pre-season, Carson Wentz has quickly made both choices look like evidence of football genius.
It was controversial at the time to turn the franchise over to Wentz instead of Chase Daniel, who had run Doug Pederson’s offensive system in Kansas City. But as of today the Eagles rookie has no turnovers in Philly’s three wins, and the team has succeeded in bringing him along slowly—he currently leads the league in passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.
And though the North Dakota St. product lost his first game as a starter last week, if you project his stats over the course of the entire season, he’s on pace to pass for 4,028 yards with a 103.5 passer rating and 67.4 completion percentage.
The other move they made was to acquire two high draft picks for Bradford on the eve of the season while getting out from under some of the money they owe him. So add it all up and Philadelphia has got their QB of the future and acquired future assets for their past QB.
Denver Broncos: A+
The Broncos made three critical decisions this past off-season, and they’ve all come up roses. First, they let Brock Osweiler go when he became too expensive for their taste, even though they invested resources developing him. Second, they cut Mark Sanchez in training camp even though he was the only option they had with meaningful game experience. And third, they turned the keys over to Trevor Siemian, feeling no need to rush first round draft pick Paxton Lynch.
The results have been that the Broncos offence is more explosive than it was last year under Peyton Manning, and Siemian was undefeated as a starter before losing to San Diego Thursday night.
Despite limited reps, Lynch has looked promising when pressed to play but struggled in his sole start versus Atlanta when Siemian was injured. That just reinforced that Siemian was the right choice as Week 1 starter.
| Trevor Siemian, Through Week 4 | |
|---|---|
| Completion Percentage | 67.0 (9th in NFL) |
| Yards Per Attempt | 8.2 (3rd) |
| Total QBR | 66.0 (13th) |
The Cowboys knew they needed to address their QB situation—and lacking succession plan—when the oft-injured Tony Romo spent much of 2015 on the bench. But they failed in their attempts to trade up in the draft for Paxton Lynch or Connor Cook.
That said, they lucked out by grabbing Prescott 135th overall in the fourth round.
Then when Romo went down again on the eve of the season, they trusted their young star to take the ball in Week 1, believing his impressive pre-season performance wasn’t a mirage. It wasn’t. Prescott’s 155 (and counting) pass attempts before his first career interception is second to only Tom Brady. His 1,239 passing yards are the most among rookies.
This grade will go even higher if Jerry Jones resists the temptation to bench Dak when Tony Romo returns to health. Romo has played in only four of the Cowboys’ last 20 games. Prescott has made the job his for the present and the future and has his 86.7 Total QBR is second in the NFL.
| Dak Prescott, 2016 | |
|---|---|
| Completion Percentage | 69.0 (3rd in NFL) |
| Interceptions | 0 (1st) |
| Total QBR | 86.7 (2nd) |
How does an undefeated team not get a higher grade? The cost of acquisition for their success is too high.
The decision to trade for Sam Bradford after Teddy Bridgewater was lost for the year has proven to be the right one. Bradford was once seen as a bust but now is the only QB drafted number one overall with a winning record this season.
That said, a younger Bradford was traded to Philadelphia for fourth- and sixth-round picks by the St. Louis Rams in March of 2015. To trade a first and fourth little more than a year later makes no sense. The Vikings also have to pay $7 million of Bradford’s salary. So as well as he’s played, that amount of draft capital and financial commitment would only be worthwhile if they finished the job and won the Super Bowl.
They rewarded Tyrod Taylor with a reported $92 million over six years, but they can cut him after this season or next, which limits any real risk for the team.
Taylor has run the team well and played his best football of late. And they still have the flexibility to go in a different direction in the future should a truly elite passer become available.
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Washington Redskins: C+
Washington hit Kirk Cousins with a one-year QB tag for $20 million. It was a decent, economical move buying them time for further evaluation.
First-overall pick Jared Goff has yet to dress—never mind start—and looked bad both in the pre-season and on HBO’s Hard Knocks.
While the team waits for Goff to be ready, Case Keenum has manned the position as the Rams have tried to stay in contention in a tough division. However, they are winning in spite of him—not because of him. When you look at the success young QBs are having around the league, it is rather embarrassing the No.1-overall pick is not even in uniform on Sundays.
| Case Keenum, 2016 | |
|---|---|
| Completion Percentage | 57.9 (28th in NFL) |
| TD-Int Ratio | 0.8-1 (30th) |
| Total QBR | 33.5 (Last) |
This off-season the Niners seemed willing to move Colin Kaepernick, but his contract made it hard to find a suitor. By default Blaine Gabbert was named the starter coming out of camp and he was a disaster—throwing just five TDs to six interceptions. He’s been far worse than a league-average QB despite playing in a QB-friendly system.
The team is currently reeling with a four-game losing streak, and now Kaepernick has been 1) named the starter, and 2) given a two-year deal with a player option.
If Kaepernick plays well he’ll opt out and test the free-agent waters. If he struggles he’ll stay put and San Fran will be stuck with another year of an unproductive QB. The plus is the team gets out from under the injury guarantee that Kaepernick previously had.
If Kaepernick struggles on the field, where does Chip Kelly turn next? Christian Ponder is the only other in-house option.
| Blaine Gabbert, 2016 | |
|---|---|
| Completion Percentage | 58 (26th in NFL) |
| Pass Yards | 890 (28th) |
| Yards Per Attempt | 5.9 (Last) |
Houston: D
You have to question why the Broncos were so quick to give up on Brock Osweiler. The Texans gave him $37 million guaranteed, believing he was the missing piece. However, despite the money spent the production isn’t much better than it was a year ago. When you pay your QB $18 million a year, you expect more than 58-percent passing, good for 27th in the league.
Sure, he has just 12 NFL starts under his belt, but many less-experienced QBs are already having big success. Houston might have buyers’ remorse if Osweiler can’t buck the current trend.
| Texans QB Ranks, Through Week 5 | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Attempt | 28th | 30th |
| TD-Int Ratio | 19th | 29th |
| Total QBR | 17th | 25th |
Cleveland Browns: D-
It’s been a revolving door at QB for the last two decades. That trend has continued and been accelerated this season. All four QBs that have played thus far—not counting Tyrelle Pryor—have gotten hurt. None of them has played particularly well and the team has yet to win a game.
Cody Kessler is expected to start this week after he left the game in the first quarter last week versus the Patriots with a rib injury. Next man up would be Kevin Hogan, on a promotion from the practice roster.
The team seems cursed when it comes to QBs, but the organization does bear some responsibility. Their worst decision might have been to trade out of the No. 2 spot in the draft rather than staying put and selecting Carson Wentz. They do have two-first round draft picks next year so hopefully they don’t pass on yet another QB.
The Jets spent $12 million for Ryan Fitzpatrick when nobody else was interested. Maybe the fact they were bidding against themselves should have been a sign they should have let him walk altogether.
Fitzpatrick has proven to be the prototypical player who over-achieves in a contract year. Fitzpatrick leads the league with 10 interceptions, six of which have come in the fourth quarter. He missed much of training camp holding out due to contract talks and it shows.
If they bench him they’ll have a backup making $12 million. The saving grace is they did hold firm with just paying for one year of the Fitzpatrick experience.
And, besides, they don’t have a lot of options behind him anyway. They clearly they have no faith in Geno Smith or else he would have taken the field by now. Another 2016 draft pick, Christian Hackenberg, is on the roster but not ready.
The Jets are in QB purgatory as they have three healthy QBs, but no reason to have faith in any of them. Unless Hackenberg makes great strides, they’ll be back where they started this off-season looking for a QB either on the free-agent market or through the draft.
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|
| Completion Percentage | 59.6 | 57.8 |
| TD-Interception Ratio | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| Total QBR | 66.7 | 52.1 |