So close, yet so far. That is what the eight remaining teams are all thinking on the eve of this weekend’s Divisional Playoffs. No matter how many games you might have won in the regular season, winning those final two games to get to the Super Bowl can be a monumental task for a lot of teams. Last weekend’s Wild Card games were, for the most part, lacking in drama and excitement, but I highly doubt there will be any complaints from football fans this time around.
The Broncos host the Ravens
Saturday 4:30PM EST
Since we live in a world filled with skeptics and pessimists, there are those who have dismissed the Broncos 11-game winning streak heading into the playoffs because of the quality (or lack thereof) of their opponents. Yes, the Broncos only faced two playoff teams during their streak (beating the Bengals and the Ravens), but the Broncos also won seven of those games by at least 10 points. In Week 15, Peyton Manning and the Broncos beat the Ravens by 17 points in a game played in Baltimore. Now the Ravens will not only have to deal with the altitude, they have to deal with their old nemesis, Peyton. One of the top candidates for the MVP and the comeback player of the year award, Manning has been reborn in Denver and is surrounded by a very deep and talented team.
The Broncos win if: the Broncos continue to stick with their offensive game plan. If given the time to sit back in the pocket, Peyton Manning will methodically pick apart the Ravens secondary as he spreads the ball around to the weapons at his disposal. Manning has made stars out of receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas and doesn’t look anything like a quarterback who was forced to take a year off with a neck injury. Unlike some of the Colts team’s Manning used to play for, the Broncos have a reliable running game. In their win over the Ravens back in Week 15, Knowshon Moreno ran 21 times for 115 yards and one touchdown. If the Ravens sell out to take away the Broncos passing game, Manning will gladly hand it off to one of his running backs. If the Ravens focus too much on stopping the run, then Manning will burn them through the air.
The Ravens win if: Ray Rice doesn’t fumble the ball. If the Ravens can’t run the ball and Joe Flacco is forced to throw it 40 times, they’re in big trouble. Back in their loss to the Broncos in Week 15, Flacco was forced to throw all game and the results were disastrous. Flacco only completed 50 per cent of his passes and threw a pick six and the Ravens were unable to establish any kind of running game. If the Ravens can’t run the ball, Flacco will spend all day running for his life from the Broncos pass rush. Led by the relentless Von Miller, the Broncos paced the AFC with 52 sacks and allowed the fewest points of any team in the conference.
Keep an eye on: Broncos linebacker Von Miller. If it wasn’t for J.J. Watt then Miller would be considered the best defensive player in the AFC. Miller is much more than just a pass-rushing specialist. Not only did he have 18 and a half sacks, but he also had 68 tackles, one pick six and six forced fumbles. If the Ravens offensive line can’t find a way to neutralize Miller, then Flacco can forget about throwing deep.
Intangibles: Forget about the high altitude of Denver Saturday, the biggest concern for both teams will be the freezing cold weather. Forecasters are calling for wind chills upwards of minus 16 Celsius at game time.
Who wins: Once upon a time it would be considered blasphemous to even suggest this, but facts are facts; the Broncos have a better defence than the Ravens. The Broncos allowed fewer points this season, they’re better in run defence and they’re far better at putting pressure on the quarterback. On top of that the Broncos have scored at least 30 points nine times during their 11-game winning streak. The Broncos are talented, balanced and led by one of the greatest quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen. Yes, I am aware that Manning has been "one and done" in the post-season seven times in his career, but that was with the Colts. In Denver, John Fox has built a Broncos team that has a superior defence, a solid running game AND Peyton Manning. I’m glad that Ray Lewis was victorious in his final game in Baltimore – the City, the organization and all Ravens fans were deserving of that kind of moment. Lewis, Flacco and the rest of the Ravens will leave it all on the field, but facing a stacked Broncos team that can beat you in many different ways, their playoff run will come to a screeching halt.
Broncos 27, Ravens 16
The Patriots host the Texans
Sunday 4:30PM EST
Back in Week 14, New England didn’t just beat the Texans, they blew them out of the water. This was supposed to be a "statement" game for the Texans to show the world they can beat the mighty Patriots and announce their presence with authority. The Texans should have kept their mouth shut this week and went about their business. Incensed by a scathing column written by Boston legend Dan Shaughnessy, Arian Foster posted a chunk of it as his Twitter avatar. If that helps motivate Foster and the Texans then fill your boots; Tom Brady and the Patriots don’t resort to those kinds of gimmicks to motivate themselves. That isn’t the way the Patriots go about their business. Bill Belichick was able to coach a Patriots team with a mediocre defence to the brink of a Super Bowl win last year. This year, he has a better team and he is darn sure not going to let anything stand in the way of his team from having a chance to erase the painful memories of last year’s loss to the Giants.
The Patriots win if: Tom Brady is upright. Led by Brady, the Patriots scored 557 points this season making them far and away the most prolific offence in the NFL. If Brady is given too much time he can pick apart any defence in the NFL. Standing in Brady’s way is the odds-on favourite to win the Defensive Player of the year award; Texans defensive lineman J.J. Watt. It was vintage performance by Watt in the Texans win over the Bengals; one sack, two quarterback hits and he batted down two passes. Belichick’s biggest priority on offence will be to establish a blocking scheme that keeps Watt out of Brady’s face. If that happens the Texans could be in for a long day.
The Texans win if: Arian Foster has 35 or more carries. Foster has run for at least 100 yards in three straight playoff games and Gary Kubiak will need him to make it four straight for the Texans to have a chance. If you can’t possess the ball for long stretches of time against the Patriots you have almost no chance of winning. The Ravens in 2009 and the Jets in 2010 provided the blueprint for how to beat the Patriots in the playoff and at the very top of the list is running the football. You pound the ball on the ground, you get touchdowns instead of field goals and you hit Tom Brady every chance you get. If the Texans can get Foster and the running game going early it will help take the crowd out of the game and more importantly; it will keep Brady on the sideline.
Keep an eye on: Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. After missing five games with a broken forearm, Gronk made his return to the Patriots lineup in Week 17. The best red zone tight end in the NFL, Gronkowski scored 11 touchdowns this season despite missing those five games and is still a nightmare for any safety in the league to cover. Last week, Jermaine Gresham was easy for the Texans to cover because he dropped so many passes. The Texans won’t have that same luxury this week trying to cover the sure handed Gronkowski. Don’t forget, the Patriots hung 42 points on the Texans back in Week 14 without Gronk in the lineup.
Intangibles: Brady enters the game with a career 16-6 record in the post-season. A win over the Texans would move Brady past his childhood idol Joe Montana and into sole possession of the most playoff wins by a quarterback. One of the big differences with this year’s Patriots team is their ability to run the ball. Stevan Ridley ran for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns as the Patriots put together the third best running game in the AFC; even better than the Texans running game.
Who wins: Even if Arian Foster runs for over 100 yards I don’t see how the Texans offence will be able to score enough points to keep up with the Patriots. The last team to beat New England (The 49ers) had to score 41 points to do it. The Texans have scored 40 points only once in their past nine games; and that was in over-time against the Jaguars. The Patriots led the AFC with 41 takeaways this year (20 interceptions and 21 fumbles). Ultimately their ability to create turnovers will give Brady enough opportunities to score the points that the Patriots need to come away with the win.
Patriots 31, Texans 23
The 49ers host the Packers
Saturday 8:00PM EST
This game is a re-match of their meeting in Week 1 in which the 49ers won 30-22. A lot has changed between then and now; most noticeably San Francisco’s starting quarterback. Alex Smith was still running the 49ers offence back then; now he stands on the sideline and watches Colin Kaepernick. Since Jim Harbaugh made the decision to switch, the 49ers went 5-2, a run that included a win over the Patriots in New England.
The 49ers win if: Colin Kaeperick plays like he did against the Patriots. Back in Week 15, Kaepernick had his finest game as a NFL quarterback when he burned the Patriots defence with four touchdown passes. Kaepernick also possesses excellent speed and averaged 6.6 yards every time he decided to run. He is a part of the new breed of quarterback that is evolving in the NFL; they can throw it deep and they can reel off big chunks of yardage with their running ability. With Frank Gore in the backfield the 49ers are going to run the ball, but eventually it will come down to whether or not Kaepernick can make some plays with his arm and his legs. If he can avoid any costly turnovers and play like he did against the Patriots, the 49ers can win this game.
The Packers win if: The Packers offensive line can contain the 49ers front seven. San Francisco boast one of the top defences in the league and they also know that if you can get to Aaron Rodgers, you can beat the Packers; and the 49ers definitely have the horses on defense to get the job done. The 49ers are ranked first in the NFC in passing yards allowed and second in the entire NFL in points allowed. Rodgers led the Packers to victory last week despite being sacked three times by the Vikings defence and was hit another five times. Rodgers likes to hold on to the ball longer than most quarterbacks so he can allow the play to unfold and his receivers to run their routes. If the Packers offensive line can do their job against the 49ers front seven, then Rodgers can overwhelm any defence even as good as theirs.
Keep an eye on: 49ers defensive lineman Justin Smith. A key cog in their defence, Smith won’t be close to 100 per cent healthy as he fights through the pain of a triceps tendon injury. If he is limited in the amount of snaps he can play because of the injury, that is a huge advantage for the Packers.
Intangibles: First off, Huey Lewis and the News are going to sing the National Anthem, so there’s that. Aaron Rodgers grew up in Chico, California, a town roughly three hours north of San Francisco. Oddly enough this will be Rodgers’s first ever start at Candlestick Park. I never knew this before this week, but the 49ers mascot is called "Sourdough Sam".
Who wins: Of all the games this weekend, this is far and away the toughest to pick a winner. The 49ers possess one of the best defences in the NFL. They also have a superb power running game that they love to use like a sledge hammer. Meanwhile the Packers have a tremendous passing game that is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field at anytime in the game. The Packers are also as healthy as they’ve been all year and the return of Charles Woodson makes their defence a lot tougher than people think. The 49ers are coming off of a bye week and will have home field advantage working for them. Then again, Aaron Rodgers has the highest career passer rating of any quarterback in NFL history and has three road playoff wins on his resume. Here is something else to keep in mind. When the Packers went on their run to the Super Bowl in the 2010 playoffs, a then unknown back by the name of James Starks gave them a running game that they so desperately needed. Last week, DuJuan Harris came out of nowhere to give the Packers 47 yards rushing and 100 yards of total offence. This will be a real Slobberknocker of a game that we might be talking about for years to come. But it a game that Aaron Rodgers will find a way to lead the Packers to victory.
Packers 20, 49ers 19
The Falcons host the Seahawks
Sunday 1:00PM EST
You want to know why Pete Carroll seems to be smiling all of the time. It is because the longer the season goes on the better his Seahawks are playing. Seattle has now won their past three road games by a combined score of 97-48. Including the post-season, Russell Wilson has thrown 27 touchdowns, the most ever by a rookie in a single season. The Seahawks are about the last team the Falcons wanted to face this week. Seattle is physical, they can pound the ball on the ground and Wilson is a dangerous young quarterback. Meanwhile in Atlanta, fans are still waiting for the Falcons to win a playoff game in the Thomas Dimitroff/Mike Smith regime. Until the Falcons can find a way to win a playoff game, everyone will keep downplaying their 13-3 record in the regular season and not respecting them as a true contender. A win over the red hot Seahawks would go a long way to changing the perception of the Falcons as a team that can’t get it done when it matters most.
The Falcons win if: They can stop Marshawn Lynch. If you can’t stop Lynch then you can’t beat the Seahawks. Lynch has run for over 100 yards in five straight games and can either run over you, or run by you. In their three losses this year, the opposing team was able to run on the Falcons and wear down their defence. Even after falling behind 14-0 last week to the Redskins, the Seahawks never abandoned the run and kept feeding it to Lynch. Falcons Head Coach Mike Smith told reporters this week that Lynch is a special back; "He’s guy that when he has to lower his pads and punch a hole in the defence he can do that. He’s also got the innate ability to cut the ball back. He’ll come out the back door, so we’ve got to do a good job in leveraging the football. In my mind, he’s one of the top two or three running backs in the League." In football terms the Seahawks love the fact that Lynch runs "downhill". Lynch doesn’t dance around, when he sees the hole he powers through the line of scrimmage. It is imperative the Falcons defence can shed their blocks, stay disciplined in their gaps and above all else, make the tackle.
The Seahawks win if: Richard Sherman and the Seahawks secondary can handle the Falcons receivers. With talent like Julio Jones (1,198 yards and 10 touchdowns) and Roddy White (1,351 yards and seven touchdowns) the Falcons receivers will provide a much bigger challenge for Sherman and the Seahawks secondary than what they faced last week against the Redskins. With Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan at the controls, the Falcons passing attack averaged close to 282 yards per game this season. The Falcons duo combined to catch 35 passes over 20 yards and in the case of Jones and his explosive speed, he had five catches over 40 yards in length. This was far and away the best season of Ryan’s career and the main reason for that is that he has two game breaking receivers to throw to. Sherman loves to talk trash but he also has the game to back it up. Much like the Redskins did last week, expect the Falcons to try and avoid throwing in the direction of Sherman. That means fellow cornerback Brandon Browner will be in for a long day. But as safety Earl Thomas proved last week, the Seahawks boast a ton of talent in their secondary and take a team approach to pass coverage.
Keep an eye on: Tight end Tony Gonzalez. If Sherman and Browner are locked up trying to cover White and Jones, then Ryan’s prime target will become Gonzalez. At the age of 36, Gonzalez enjoyed his best season (93 catches for 930 yards and eight touchdowns.) since joining the Falcons. Since the Falcons don’t have a great running game, Gonzalez becomes the focal point of the offence when they get down in the red zone. Gonzalez is also one of the most respected players in the league and the Falcons would love nothing more than to see him get to a Super Bowl in what is the final chapter to a brilliant career.
Intangibles: One of the top quarterbacks in the NFC, Matt Ryan is still looking to win his first playoff game. The arrival of Ryan marked a significant paradigm shift in the fortunes of the Falcons; during the regular season. But while the Falcons have won 56 regular season games in the past five seasons with Ryan at the helm of their offence, they have yet to win in three trips to the post season. The other thing to watch out for in this game is Seahawks kicker Ryan Longwell. Because of an injury to Steven Hauschka the Seahawks were forced to sign Longwell this week. He is a good kicker, but he hasn’t played since Week 17 of the 2011 season.
Who wins: The Falcons have done everything necessary to build a winning program. They even hired new coordinators on both sides of the ball this year to help get the team over the hump. But the fact they haven’t had a back run for 100 yards in their past eight games concerns me facing a defence like Seattle’s. If they take away White and Jones from Ryan, how are the Falcons going to score any points? Here is the most worrisome thing about the Falcons; you can run on their defende. The Falcons are ranked 21st in the league stopping the run and they are about to face a Seahawks team that will unleash Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson on them. A good defence and a good running game will always travel well in the NFL. That is why the Seahawks will make sure the Falcons are one and done in the post season.
Seahawks 24, Falcons 17