Every Sunday morning Sportsnet’s NFL experts will serve up a playbook containing the 10 things you need to know as of a few hours before kickoff. Whether you play fantasy football, like to wager or just want to sound smart at your local watering hole, we’ve got you covered.
Game Of The Week (it’s not the one you think!)
Real recognize real: Which would probably be why the Patriots don’t recognize the Lions. Not yet, at least. The Pats are 8-2, leading the AFC East, as usual. The Lions are 7-3, leading the NFC North, as far from usual as things get for the Detroit Lions. On the surface, this is a clash of two teams that could both end up representing their respective conferences in Phoenix at the Super Bowl. Anywhere below the surface though, it’s a matchup of a tried and tested team versus a club that perhaps can’t handle the expectations that come with success. While it’s true that the Lions boast a truly elite defence, a quarterback with a 5,000-yard resume and one of the game’s all-time great offensive weapons, it’s also not a stretch to say this is a very flawed football team. Kicking problems. Turnovers. An offence that vanishes against any staunch defensive resistance. The Patriots, on the other hand, have a collection of elite players—Tom Brady, Darrelle Revis, Rob Gronkowski–but otherwise rely on ever-shifting gameplans that adjust to whatever their opponent gives them. That’s a really hard thing for the Lions, a team still growing into its talent, to cope with.
The pick: The line on this game was seven most of the week, and has moved to 7.5 this morning. That’s usually a sign that a blowout is a possibility. Patriots 31, Lions 17.
Three Fantasy Sleepers
Theo Riddick, RB, DET: Reggie Bush should sit again today, and while Riddick disappointed against the Cardinals, Arizona is a tough defence to run on. He should find more room in New England, and the Lions should work their screen pass game.
Kenny Stills, WR, NOS: Marques Colston has looked old, and just plain bad, this season. Brandin Cooks has been placed on IR. Robert Meachem is questionable with an ankle injury–and even if he plays he’s still Robert Meachem. Stills should get his looks, and he can turn looks into points.
Dan Herron, RB, IND: Trent Richardson has been awful, and while the Colts likely hope he can get something going against Jacksonville, the Jags are a better run defence than they get credit for. Once Richardson grinds the offence to a halt a couple of times, Herron will get his chance.
Game Theory
Counter narrative After we mentioned the unceasing aerial evolution of the game in this space last Sunday, you may have heard and read otherwise this past week. That would be because the likes of Jonas Gray, Alfred Blue, LeVeon Bell, Jamaal Charles and Jeremy Hill all topped 150 yards–and naturally all it takes is one week to prove a decade-long trend wrong, at least long enough for someone to squeeze out a column. Please don’t buy that stuff. After those big totals, just three other backs totalled 100 yards, and that was just the fourth week this season with eight 100-yard rushers. And three of those eight backs are rookies, with two of them, Gray and Blue, seeing their first extended work—-ie, with very little on film for a defence to prepare with–in the NFL. So yeah, I’m gonna say this was a high-water mark for a couple of these guys.
Just for fun, let’s randomly choose a few weeks from seasons between 2005-2009. Scout’s honour, these weeks were totally randomly selected:
Week 10 of 2009: 11 100-yard rushers and three more backs with more than 95 yards
Week 7 of 2008: Another 11 100-yard rushers, and three more with more than 90 yards
Week 14 of 2007: 13 100-yard rushers, and a couple of 90-pluses
Week 4 of 2006: “Only” 9 100-yard rushers—I clicked on a few more random weeks for fun, and couldn’t find any in the time frame with fewer than nine. Some of them definitely exist, but you get the point. Don’t buy last week. Take the under on rushing yards almost every time.
That’s a load of Bowe-s–t The craziest stat you’ll find this week comes courtesy of a reader of Bill Simmons’ column at Grantland—if you combined every Kansas City Chiefs receiver into one fantasy player, that player would still only be the 26th-best receiver in fantasy football. The main reason for that would be that the Chiefs have 11 games in the books and Alex Smith still has not thrown a single touchdown to a wide receiver. You would think it would have happened accidentally by now. Further to our point above though, even without the semblance of a competent medium-to-deep passing game, Jamaal Charles has only a single 100-yard rushing game this season. And the Chiefs are still 7-4 and battling the Broncos for the AFC West. Long live the screen pass!
The Three To Watch
1 p.m.
Buccaneers at Bears I’ve always been a sucker for revenge games–and with both lovie Smith and Josh McCown returning to the windy city, this could be a good one. It also could have the most fireworks among a 1 p.m. slate of games that, Lions-Pats aside, doesn’t feature many tasty tilts. Both these teams, however, are what are generally called plus matchups for quarterbacks and receivers. And both these teams have a QB unafraid to make a few mistakes, and two receivers–Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery for the Bears, and Vincent Jackson and rookie phenom Mike Evans for the Bucs–who can make plays on contested balls. Presuming the weather doesn’t interfere too much, and Chicago could live up to its nickname today, expect blown coverages and the resulting big gains galore. Don’t expect the final score to matter much in the grand scheme of things–though it has to be noted that, hilariously, a Bucs win combined with losses by the Falcons and Saints would leave Tampa with a 3-8 record…and just one game out of first place in the NFC South. In fact, as of Sunday morning, the last place team in no fewer than three of the other seven divisions (the AFC North and NFC North and West) would be in first place in the NFC South.
4:25 p.m.
Cardinals at Seahawks Last season, the Cardinals were the only team to beat Seattle in Seattle. The Cards finished 10-6 and missed the playoffs. The picture has changed somewhat. A win today would all but assure Arizona of that playoff spot they missed last year–and they can do it against a Seahawks team that’s nowhere near as intimidating as the one they beat in 2013. Here’s a fun question: Which Seahawks receiver does Patrick Peterson cover? None of them are even worthy of his talents. Doug Baldwin is perhaps the best pass catcher…and he’s not really deserving of the attentions of a shutdown corner. This will be a strength against strength matchup: The Cards punishing run defence against Marshawn Lynch and friends–who have been getting their groove back the past couple of weeks. The champs are still the champs and they’re still at home and will get linebacker Bobby Wagner back–and he’s a critical addition for their defence. The Cards will have to earn this one the hard way. And while they’ve been the better team all season, it’s nearly impossible to trust Drew Stanton in this situation.
Sunday Night
Cowboys at Giants Not a whole lot needs to be said about this game. you’ll know very early if it’s worth watching. DeMarco Murray, fresh off a bye week, should have his legs under him, and if the Giants can’t stop him on the first drive or two, it won’t be pretty later. Tom Coughlin’s team gave up 350 yards on the ground to the Seahawks two weeks ago, then 148 to a mediocre 49ers rushing attack last week. If they don’t fix that for tonight…the rest of the matchups won’t matter much. The Cowboys, with Tony Romo still getting healthy, would like nothing better than to run the ball 45 times and then get on a plane.