It’s appropriate in a draft where Johnny Manziel and his unpredictable playing style are front and centre, teams and media members alike are unsure of what will happen with the top quarterback prospects when the clock starts on the 2014 NFL Draft.
Essentially the quarterbacks are wildcards in this draft. Not to mention it’s the one position where teams sometimes panic—see the 2011 draft where the Vikings made Christian Ponder a surprise top-12 pick or the Browns reaching to take Brandon Weeden 22nd in 2012—and select players way above their overall grade. If one QB gets selected early in the 2014 pick-fest they could start flying off the board, but if the GMs at the top sit back and wait on a quarterback we could see guys slip to the late first, early second round or further.
Scouts around the NFL are saying it’s a pretty deep quarterback class, but there is no true, sure-fire franchise quarterback to be had, like an Andrew Luck. However, there are some attractive prospects in the 2014 quarterback group. Players like Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles are drawing lots of media attention and each brings a different skill set to the table. After the top three most highly publicized signal callers there has been a buzz about a few of the players seen as being in the second tier quarterback group like Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tom Savage and Aaron Murray.
For teams it’s all about projecting which quarterbacks have a chance to be productive at the pro level. So let’s take a closer look at some of the intriguing QB prospects in the 2014 class and which ones might translate best to the NFL.
Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
Career prediction: Pro Bowl quarterback
Better known as Johnny Football, he has proven to be the ultimate gamer. Manziel played on an Aggies team with a terrible defence, but it didn’t seem to matter as he routinely willed them to victories in games they had no business winning. Everything he did in college—including tearing up Nick Saban’s usually stout Alabama defence not once, but twice—says he’s going to be a good NFL player.
The worrisome thing about Manziel is the high potential for injury that comes with his reckless playing style. While he’ll have success scrambling at the next level, he won’t be able to put his body in harm’s way as much because he’s going to take harder hits from bigger and stronger athletes. Adding to his durability concerns is the fact he has a small frame. Despite all that, though, Manziel has a unique instinct—something only the greats have—to make the big play at the most crucial moments in a game.
Manziel has a big arm for his stature with a real whip to his delivery. He can make every throw you want for the pro game, but not with the proper mechanics you would require of a normal quarterback. That might scare some NFL people, but it’ll excite others. If he goes to a team that will fully embrace what he brings to the table, he could be great.
Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
Career prediction: Solid NFL starter
Mechanically, Bridgewater is the best out of all the quarterbacks in the 2014 draft. He’s smooth, calm in the pocket, goes through his read progressions quickly and is phenomenally accurate. Bridgewater gets the ball out quickly and has a good sense of anticipation.
Working against him is that fact that he endured such scrutiny throughout the year and into the draft process, and it’s almost like he’s had too much time to simmer—people are finding little things to stack against him. It also seems like teams are throwing smoke screens Bridgewater’s way, trying to act like they don’t like him as much as maybe they really do. His biggest concern is what some scouts have described as a skinny frame. He needs to add some muscle and bulk to be able to handle the physical toll of a full pro schedule.
Arguably the most accurate passer in the draft, Bridgewater completed 71 percent of his passes in 2013, which is big in the minds of NFL scouts. He doesn’t have a huge arm, but he can make all the required throws. At Louisville he was a playmaker, and while not overly athletic he still can extend plays outside the pocket.
Blake Bortles, Central Florida
Career prediction: Bust and out of the NFL in less than five years
Bortles looks the part of an NFL quarterback. He played at a smaller school and was successful when on the national stage. Playing in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl—with all the Tostitos on the line—he performed well throwing for 301 yards and three touchdowns, leading the UCF Knights to a 52–42 upset win over Baylor. He possesses good but not great arm strength. And in terms of his technical skills, he needs some refinement and will benefit most by being given time by the team that drafts him to develop further before being put into an NFL game.
Regardless of all the media hype around Bortles, I am still not sold on him. He has some issues that need to be fixed—if they ever can be. Generally the one trait most successful NFL quarterbacks have is a natural ability to be accurate, and Bortles just isn’t accurate consistently enough. He throws off his back foot a lot and doesn’t have ideal deep-ball touch. It just doesn’t look like he has the football makeup. If he gets drafted in the first round and is forced into starting too soon, he could wash out fast. I wouldn’t touch him at all.
Derek Carr, Fresno State
Career prediction: Solid NFL starter
At Fresno State Carr ran a dink-and-dunk type of offence with a lot of screen passes and short throws, but he showed a strong arm and gunslinger mentality at the Senior Bowl.
Teams had to work him out privately to figure out just what kind of arm talent he has though. He’s obviously got the lineage with his quarterback brother David going No. 1 overall in 2002 to the Houston Texans. The biggest drawback with the younger Carr is his footwork—his feet are slow and kind of awkward at times, and that affects his accuracy. Once he cleans his feet up he’s got some upside.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
Career prediction: Pro Bowl quarterback
Garoppolo has often been compared to fellow Eastern Illinois alum Tony Romo. Both won the Walter Payton Award as the most outstanding offensive payer in the FCS, formally known as NCAA Division I-AA. Garoppolo broke a number of Romo’s school records. In his senior season he put up video game-type numbers throwing for 5,050 yards and 53 touchdowns.
Scouts say the four-year starter has a lightning-quick release and is a smooth and natural thrower of the football. He also has Romo’s signature escape-trouble spin move down pat, so that helps the comparison.
It’s always tough to project how well small-school players will make the jump to the pro level, but Garoppolo showed well against top competition in the East-West Shrine Game and Senior Bowl. He’s a competitor and will work to prove he can get it done against top-tier competition week in and week out. And he seems like a smart guy who will adjust to the bigger playbooks in the NFL.
Tom Savage, Pittsburgh
Career prediction: Solid NFL starter with Pro Bowl upside
In 2009 Savage was named to the All-American Freshmen team while at Rutgers. He ended up transferring to Arizona and then Pittsburgh, where in 2013 he had a good senior season, throwing for 2,958 yards and 21 touchdowns against just nine interceptions.
Savage has terrible footwork and throws off his back foot quite a bit, but he’s got such a cannon for an arm that he gets away with it. He anticipates well, fits the ball into tight places and throws his receivers open. He ran a pro-style offence at Pittsburgh, has a big frame and physically looks like an NFL QB. His big arm has earned the attention of NFL scouts and he’s shot up draft boards accordingly.
Aaron Murray
Career prediction: Solid NFL starter with Pro Bowl upside
Murray suffered a senior-season-ending ACL injury, but he still put together an impressive resume during his time at Georgia. He was a four-year starter and threw for over 3,000 yards and 24 or more touchdowns in each season as the Bulldogs’ starting quarterback. Murray has been consistently productive in the SEC. He had to make throws and plays without the same type of talent around him that a player like A.J. McCarron had at Alabama.
Partly because of his height (he measured six-foot-one at the Combine) Murray has drawn comparisons to Drew Brees. He doesn’t have a great arm, but he makes up for it with accuracy, anticipation and a high football IQ. He really cares about football, and that kind of work ethic will serve him well. He is one of those first-guy-in-and-last-guy-out types.
All that said, Murray’s pro prospects are all about the scheme. He needs to get into the right offence to fit his strengths. He won’t start immediately because of his knee injury, but if you give him time to heal and develop before bringing him in he could develop into a pretty capable starter.