It’s likely we haven’t seen such a vast difference in the quality at quarterback in the NFL playoffs for quite some time.
On one of the end spectrum, you have the MVP candidates—three quarterbacks who are having career years and will likely go down as some of the best of their era.
On the other, you’ve got three backups, including a quarterback starting his first NFL game on wild-card weekend.
Safe to say it’s a strange time for the position, so we’ve broken down the playoff quarterbacks from MVPs to backups and everything in between.
Tier 1: The Elite
Quarterbacks who must be great for their teams to succeed, and probably will be.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
“I feel like we can run the table, I really do.” —Rodgers, Nov. 23, 2016
And run the table they did.
The Packers haven’t lost a game since a 42–24 drubbing in Washington on Nov. 20, and A-Rod is the reason why. Since falling to 4-6 through Week 11 and then predicting an undefeated run to the post-season, No. 12 has been off-the-charts good.
Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league right now, meaning the Packers may be the biggest threat to the Cowboys in the NFC.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
At the head of the NFL’s best offence, Matty Ice has been on the MVP radar all season long. After a bit of a Falcons mid-season lull, Ryan’s output over the last four games of the season has been ridiculous: 11 TDs, 0 INTs, 1,130 yards and a 133.7 QB rating.
Ryan has been a factor in the league since his rookie year, but has yet to make a big impact in the playoffs. On the heels of his best-ever regular season, is this the year he takes that next step?
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
At some point we’re going to see a regression from Brady… right?
Just seven months from his 40th birthday, No. 12 enters his eighth consecutive post-season in his best form in years. While many might have seen his four-game suspension as detrimental for the Patriots, Brady’s current play would suggest it only helps New England in their quest for a fifth Super Bowl ring.
Statistically, the Patriots’ current offence is their best since 2012. And while a much-improved offensive line and a punishing run game have certainly been important factors, Brady’s play cant be overlooked.
Without his most dangerous weapon in Rob Gronkowski, Brady is squeezing production out of everyone on the field: five Patriots had at least 500 yards receiving, while seven of caught at least three TD passes.
Brady, and Bill Belichick of course, are doing a lot with fairly little, which is why No. 12 is the odds-on favourite to win MVP despite playing in just 12 games.
Tier 2: The Game Changers
Quarterbacks who can, and often will, put teams on their backs but have seen their fair share of struggles this season.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Let’s get one thing straight: The Seahawks aren’t in the playoffs without Wilson. What he’s battled through this season would give other starters around the league nightmares: playing with a knee injury behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
At full strength behind a capable line, Wilson straddles the line between here and elite.
Outside of passing yards, however, Wilson has seen his numbers dip this season, posting his worst touchdown-to-interception ratio (21:11; granted five of those INTs came in one game) and the lowest yards gained per pass attempt of his career (7.7). Five times Wilson has failed to throw a touchdown this season.
But these are by no means reasons to count out Wilson and the Seahawks in the playoffs. Wilson is still one of the most dangerous weapons in the game. And if there’s anything we’ve learned in the Pete Carroll era, it’s that Seattle’s at its most dangerous come the post-season.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Over the course of his career, Big Ben has been elite. A Hall of Famer, there’s no doubt. But his 2016 form has not been what we’ve come to expect from the two-time Super Bowl champion.
Roethlisberger came up huge for the Steelers on Christmas Day in a comeback win over Baltimore to clinch the division title, but the 13-year veteran’s season can probably best be described as up and down.
At times, Roethlisberger has been flawless, five times posting a QB rating better than 110 and winning four of those games with 18 touchdown passes to just one interception. In another six of his games, though, the he completed less than 58 percent of his passes with six TDs to nine interceptions. The Steelers lost three of those games, including a 30–15 loss to the Dolphins—the Steelers’ wild-card opponent.
In all likelihood we’ll see vintage Roethlisberger this weekend and throughout the Steelers’ post-season, but Big Ben has been anything but consistent in the leadup to the playoffs.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Stafford has done enough this season to warrant some MVP chatter (though he’s far from a contender), but entering the playoffs he and the Lions have left much to be desired.
During a run that saw the Lions win eight of nine games from Oct. 9 to Dec. 12, Stafford was the catalyst behind a never-give-up Detroit team that won all but one of those games thanks to fourth-quarter comebacks.
Since then, however, the Lions and their quarterback have struggled. Detroit limps into the playoffs losers of three straight and Stafford has thrown five INTs to just three TDs in his last four.
Tier 3: The Game Managers
Quarterbacks whose main concern is protecting the football, but will sometimes be called upon to make big plays in crunch time.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Like Wilson, the impressive rookie straddles the line between this tier and the one above. Prescott is often not depended upon as the key cog that makes the Cowboys offence run, but has been leaned upon in different situations to lead Dallas to victory.
That said, he’s still a rookie playing in his first-ever post-season who has limitations (which will likely dissipate as his career progresses) as a game-changing quarterback.
That shouldn’t matter for Dallas’s Super Bowl chances. With Prescott at the helm, they are still very much the favourites to emerge from the NFC. At this early point of his career, game manager suits the rookie just fine; hand the ball off to Ezekiel Elliott, protect the football and make smart passes to a wealth of pass catchers, all of whom have the experience necessary to get the job done.
Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
If you were to describe this year’s Chiefs, you could say they’re good at everything but not great at anything. The same can be said about Smith, and that suits Kansas City just fine.
Smith won’t blow you away with his arm, but he’ll surprise you with his football IQ; won’t burn you with speed, but will surprise you with a 20-yard scramble; won’t impress with his pocket presence, but will surprise you with his playmaking ability.
With Derek Carr out, the Chiefs have been tabbed by many as the team best suited to challenge the Patriots in the AFC. If that’s the case, expect to see plenty of big plays on defence and special teams but Smith is bound to make a crucial contribution and manage the game with near-perfection.
Eli Manning, New York Giants
When the Giants make the playoffs, people can’t help but compare them to the teams that stunned the Patriots in a pair of Super Bowls in the last decade. And while New York’s defence has been the league’s best over the last month and a half, one aspect of this team is significantly different than those title winners: Manning is a much different quarterback.
As the Giants’ defence has taken its play to another level, the Manning-led offence has floundered. New York hasn’t scored more than 20 points since Nov. 27, a span of five games.
As the season has progressed, Manning’s arm strength seemed to abandon him. He’s missed key throws and his turnovers have hurt the Giants in big spots. (Remember that Thursday nighter against the Eagles? Yikes.)
It doesn’t help that New York’s run game has been indescribably terrible this season (3.5 yards/carry, 88.3 yards/game, ranked 29th), but the Giants currently rely almost entirely on Odell Beckham Jr. slants turning into 75-yard TDs in order to score points.
In his current form, Manning won’t be able to do enough to beat Green Bay, let alone make a Super Bowl run.
Tier 4: The Backups
Quarterbacks who wouldn’t be here had their team’s first choice not been lost to injury.
Matt Moore, Miami Dolphins
Credit where it’s due: Moore did become the first Dolphins QB to throw four TDs in a game since Dan Marino in 1994 in his first game in relief of Ryan Tannehill. But he hasn’t been great on the whole, and answered that breakout performance with two average outings against the Bills and Patriots.
Moore and the Dolphins will have to be mistake-free in Pittsburgh to have any hope of wild-card survival.
Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans
Osweiler has been skewered enough this season, so there’s no reason to pile on. With the Raiders missing their MVP, it basically comes down to this: If the $72-million man can avoid costly turnovers against the Raiders, Houston can win.
And if they do, they’ll earn the chance to face the well-rested Patriots.
In New England.
In the playoffs…
Connor Cook, Oakland Raiders
Cook will become the only rookie to ever make his first NFL start in the post-season Sunday in Houston, and it comes against the league’s best defence (first in yards allowed).
It’s hard to say how he’ll fare, but it’s safe to say keeping the mistakes to a minimum is a must for a team that had Super Bowl aspirations just three weeks ago.
