Just when you think you have the answers, the NFL changes the questions. Every Friday, we’ll answer the ones football fans are fretting over and attempt to figure out what’s happening around the league—and more importantly, why.
This week: If you hate the Patriots we have some bad news for you, why you should appreciate your last chance to watch Ed Reed play football and some rapid fire fantasy football analysis.
(As always, you can ask questions on Twitter to @TheGameSheet, or email asktheinsiders@sportsnet.ca, with ‘NFL FAQ’ in the subject line.)
Q: So are the Patriots a Super Bowl threat again, or what?
A: Again? They always were. We picked them in August and never thought of backing down. But we take your meaning, and yes, the Patriots now look scarier than they have at any point since the end of last season.
What’s that they say about peaking at the right time?
On Monday night, sometime in the first quarter, most likely in a passing situation, the Carolina Panthers defence will look across the line of scrimmage and see something no NFL team has glimpsed through the first 10 weeks of the season: A healthy and functioning Patriots offence—at least at the skill positions. A healthy Danny Amendola will be in the slot. A large and angry Rob Gronkowski will be at the end of the offensive line. Next to Tom Brady will be workhorse back Stephen Ridley, with ‘Joker’ back Shane Vereen either right behind him, or perhaps split out wide to befuddle the Panthers front seven, for the first time since the season’s opening game. And holding down the ‘X’ spot will be Aaron Dobson, he of the six-foot-three, 200 lbs. body and the 4.4 40-yard dash time—and also of the recently-figured-out-how-to-catch-an-NFL-football hands.
Not pictured will be LaGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, Kenbrell Thompkins and Michael Hoomanawanui. Also, all five feet and 10 inches of Julian Edelman will be plastered to the bench, save for special teams and five-receiver sets. And this will be, finally, the offense as Bill Belichick drew it up, back before fate intervened.
This should be terrifying to both the Panthers and future opponents for a few different reasons. Most obviously, because the healthier Brady’s offense is, the more knives he has with which to carve up his foes. But this is also about the defence.
This week or next—he’s tentatively expected to return Monday—the Patriots will also welcome back Aqib Talib, who was grading out as one of the best defensive backs in football before suffering a hip injury. The season-ending injuries to Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo have hurt the Patriots up front, but an efficient offense jumping out to leads will force teams to throw on the Patriots, which plays right into the hands of the secondary—where they are one of the better coverage units in the league—and will also give the banged-up front line more time and chances to generate pressure.
If the Patriots can hang 20 points or more on the Panthers on Monday night, you’ll know the rest of the NFL has a problem. The Panthers haven’t given up more than 24 points all season—and that came in week two against the Bills. Since losing 22-6 in week five to the Cardinals, the Panthers haven’t allowed more than 15. Over their past four games, the Pats are averaging about 35 points per game—and that includes tilts against the Saints and Jets, the NFL’s seventh and eighth best defences, respectively, by yards allowed per game.
If Brady hangs a solid number on Carolina, the fact that the Pats are still 9-1 to win the Super Bowl but the Broncos are 10-3 (or 3.33-1) is going to seem ludicrous. Peyton Manning’s ridiculous numbers aside, there’s no way Denver is three times as likely to win it all.
Q: Did the Jets sign Ed Reed because Rex Ryan is just a nice guy who does his longtime players a solid when they need it? Or is something else going on here?
A: There’s probably not much else going on here—but if you’re a football fan, you shouldn’t care. At best, Ryan secured a grizzled veteran to ball hawk on deep throws and tutor his younger defensive players while worrying opposing offensive coordinators. At worst, he paid the veteran minimum to a washed-up 35-year-old safety who will struggle to keep up with the game and may become a distraction when the media (and Reed) start to wonder why he’s not playing more often—because the New York Jets have never seen a famous individual brought in for part-time duty suddenly championed by the press corps before!
But even if it’s only for a few snaps per game, we would urge you to get one final look at perhaps one of the greatest safeties football has ever seen. You won’t get the coverage skills, or the lightning quick reflexes that he once used to identify the run and jump into the box to make a tackle—but we’d be willing to be you’ll get a couple of big plays that look effortless. Just a matter of Ed Reed anticipating what’s about to happen and smoothly positioning himself in the centre of it. That’s a skill that will never fade.
Also, you know he’s not doing it just for the money—Reed will make the minimum, which this season is $940,000 for a ten-year vet. Pro-rated over the Jets’ final seven games, that’s about $411,000. Or basically the amount he probably spent in New Orleans after the night after February’s Super Bowl win.
RAPID FIRE FANTASY QUESTION TIME
(We get far more fantasy questions than actual football questions here, so it’s time to add them to the mix)
Q: Can I count on Chris Johnson the rest of the way?
A: Of course not. But that doesn’t mean the Titans’ best offensive weapon won’t have two or three more excellent games. Just accept that you have no idea when those games will be, and either commit to starting him every week, or trade him for a less bi-polar option. In weeks one, three, four, six and 10 Johnson has a combined 319 yards and no touchdowns. In weeks two, five, seven, nine and 11, he has 541 yards and six touchdowns. Yes, that’s arbitrarily selecting stats—but that’s the point. One of Johnson’s worst games came against the Jaguars, and one of his best games came against the 49ers. Nobody has any idea what’s coming in week 12.
Q: Is Chuck Pagano the worst (offensive) play-calling coach in the NFL?
A: Quite possibly. Pagano wants the Colts to be a running team, but their third-down back has outplayed the bell-cow runner they paid a first-round pick to acquire. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Trent Richardson is not to be relied upon as a major part of a winning game plan—especially not if that game plan involves taking the ball out of Andrew Luck’s hands and putting it into a running back’s. The Colts are still passing on 60 percent of their plays this season—but that’s because their hideous early-game offense (zero points scored in their last three first quarters) is forcing them into passing more often in late comebacks. For now, we’ll just shake our heads and sigh and say a word of thanks that Luck doesn’t really need the first half to be an effective fantasy quarterback. Oh, and we’ll eagerly await the day when the Colts realize that Luck is similar enough to Peyton Manning that he can also be his own offensive coordinator. That’s when the fantasy fun will really start.
Q: Is this the most injury-plagued fantasy year of all time?
A: Well, it’s certainly the most injury plagued NFL year of all time—or at least, it’s on pace to be. We’ll have a full breakdown on that in the next issue of Sportsnet magazine, he said, plugging shamelessly.
Q: Who should I trade right now before it’s too late?
A: We’ll give you a six-pack of guys you should be bailing on before playoff time:
QB: Cam Newton had a hot stretch before the 49ers cooled him out last week. If he performs against the Patriots, turn around and shop him before he faces the Saints (twice) and the Jets.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald has an inconsistent quarterback and a murderer’s row of fantasy playoff matchups (against the Rams, Titans and Seahawks).
WR: Dez Bryant is still a fantasy stud, so don’t give him away. But if you’re top heavy and can find a buyer, it might be worth turning his back issues and occasional petulant complaints into two less-explosive, every-week starters after his next big game—which should come Sunday.
RB: Andre Brown definitely can be useful, but if you can find someone willing to buy him for the 100-yards and touchdown he notched on 30 carries last week, go for it. That won’t be an every-week occurrence.
RB: Andre Ellington could be one of fantasy football’s better running backs if he gets 20 touches per game. But he’s not, and Cardinals coach Bruce Arians says he has no interest in increasing his workload. If you can sell his breakout potential to somebody, have at it.
TE: Jason Witten has name value, and a few good games this year to hang his hat on—but his age, combined with the emergence of Terrance Williams make him something less than the No. 2 option in Dallas. Cash in now.