Imagine a world without fantasy football. Already, you feel a little less stressed, don’t you? No lineups to set, waiver wires to monitor or humiliation to endure after another season outside of the playoffs. Just good, clean football fun. Sure, Sundays might be a little less all-consuming, but perhaps we’d all be better off.
Now imagine yourself in that fantasy-football free world, plopping down on the couch on a Thursday night, and flipping on the Jaguars-Texans game. Case Keenum is dodging yet another blitz he never saw coming, narrowly avoiding a sack and firing a wobbly-but-accurate ball to Andre Johnson who has split the Jags’ lethargic coverage. He catches it, shakes off a tackle, turns upfield and…it doesn’t matter. Not to you. Not to anyone you care about—unless you’re unfortunate enough to count a Texans or Jaguars diehard among your closest friends—not to anyone except the guys on the field and some degenerates in Vegas, really.
Fantasy football has changed almost everything about the way we consume the sport. From the computers open on our laps, to the explosion in popularity of the NFL’s RedZone channel, to our football hopes, now tied as much to individual players than their teams, and even to the in-person viewing experience itself.
This evidence is anecdotal, but I’d wager a solid chunk of change that fantasy football is at least partly to blame for the NFL’s attendance worries. Who on Earth wants to pay $50 for a ticket, $9 for a beer and scream themselves hoarse when their real (fake!) players are labouring for them at the same time in stadiums across the United States. Would you go to watch your favourite baseball team if all you were going to see was the third baseman?
The loyal fans of teams will always live and die with real, live football teams. But they’re a stable-at-best-shrinking-at-worst demographic. For millions of others, the fake teams have taken over the top spot on the dial. That means, for a not-insignificant percentage of the football-watching public, this Sunday marks the start of the playoffs. Only about 30 percent of the fantasy players who began the season with dreams of trophies are still around, but those that do…well, they’ve got questions.
And this being the FAQ, we’ve got answers. Unlike other places on the Internet, we take start-sit questions. Because rankings are boring and the act of determining who takes the fake football field tells us things about players we might not have realized otherwise.
Q: Should I play Trent Richardson in the playoffs?
A: If you’ve made the fantasy playoffs while playing Trent Richardson regularly, then congratulations, because that’s a like beating a video game with on the maximum difficulty setting. To quantify this achievement, let’s have a look at a few players you could have started every week who would have landed you more fantasy points than Trent Richardson in a points-per-reception league.
Randall Cobb, WR, GB: Cobb last played football in week six, which was his fifth game of the season. In those five games he put up 93 fantasy points. Trent Richardson has 83 fantasy points in 12 games. This seems like a fluke, but Cobb’s not the only player currently on IR that is outscoring Trent Richardson—Reggie Wayne, Jake Locker, Arian Foster, Julio Jones and Sam Bradford are also further above T-Rich than Cobb.
Kris Durham, WR, DET: Durham has four games in which he has caught zero or a single pass. He has not had 100 yards receiving in a game this season. He has just two touchdowns in 12 games and only one game with more than five catches. He is the fourth option, at best, in the Lions offence. He has five more fantasy points than Trent Richardson.
Donald Brown, RB, IND: In August, Trent Richardson—currently the Colts’ second-string running back—was drafted with an average pick of 11th overall in fantasy leagues. Brown, now the Colts’ starting running back, was selected, on average, with pick number…”not drafted”. Brown was not selected in enough drafts to qualify for the Average Draft Position aggregator. He has 13 more fantasy points than Trent Richardson this season.
The answer to your question is, “No.” But also, “Why did you even need to ask?”
Q: Sit any of Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith, Jordan Cameron, Brian Hartline or Golden Tate to play Michael Crabtree, Rashard Mendenhall or Andre Holmes?
A: If I was a little meaner, I’d tell you to start Andre Holmes, if only to teach you a valuable lesson about chasing one-week wonders at playoff time. Holmes is an athletic freak who has exactly 12 NFL receptions to his credit, seven of them coming last week. Starting Holmes is the kind of move people make when they badly want a game-changing play to win them their league; when they have dreams of being venerated for their fantasy genius. It works out—I’m estimating here—approximately 0.7 percent of the time. The other 99.3 percent of the time, you spend Sunday night staring at your lineup wondering how you could have been so stupid.
Have you ever heard the expression “Dance with the one who brought ya?” It applies here. That crew might not be the greatest assemblage of fantasy talent, but it’s your team, dude. Dance with the guys who brought you. If Michael Crabtree wasn’t facing Richard Sherman this week, I’d think about finding a way to squeeze him in—but he is, so don’t worry about it. Starting Rashard Mendenhall is the fantasy football equivalent of injuring yourself in hopes of suing somebody—there’s a small chance you end up rich and relaxed, but most likely you’ll just end up hurting and broke.
Q: Start Chris Ivory or BenJarvus Green-Ellis this week?
A: Chris Ivory is playing on a bad ankle, and his opponent, the Raiders, are actually a top-10 run defence (OK, number 10, but still). Green-Ellis is always in danger of losing carries to Giovani Bernard—because Giovani Bernard is younger, faster and better—but also faces the Colts’ 28th-ranked run D at home in a game the Bengals will be trying to control.
Q: Le’Veon Bell (against the Dolphins), Fred Jackson (against the Bucs) or Shane Vereen (against the Browns)?
A: If it’s a PPR league, it’s Vereen without a second thought. If it’s not, it’s probably still Vereen, but you can think about it. The Browns boast a stifling interior defence, which punishes between-the-tackles runners. But what the Patriots do best is spread the defense and force opponents into sub-packages trying to defend across the field. When they do that, it’s Vereen who benefits, because he can line up anywhere on the field and remain a threat. The Browns are most effective when they can get thumping safety TJ Ward up into the box defending the run—if the Patriots run a four-wide set, they can move Vereen around at the line of scrimmage and force Cleveland into looks that take away what the Browns do best. Vereen, for his part, makes a living on screen passes and plays on which he can operate in space. And that’s the kind of run the Browns don’t defend well.
Think of Vereen as a receiver who gets some carries as a bonus. Last week, of his 41 snaps, 10 were running plays (he carried the ball all 10 times), 30 were pass plays (he was targeted six times, the first time he’s had less than 10 targets since his return from injury) and was asked to pass block…once. He’s an offensive weapon and will get between 15 and 20 touches in a good offence that will be using him specifically to exploit a defensive weakness. You can’t ask for more than that.
Too much gushing? Fine. If you’re not sold on Belichick’s creative playmaking, at least recognize the flaws with your other plays. Bell is coming off a concussion—and it looked like a bad one—and Jackson has a nice matchup but CJ Spiller is healthy and running hot for the first time this season, so Freddy’s not likely to see much more than half the carries.
If you’re confidant of your chances and just need the most reliable 6-10 points possible, go for Bell. Otherwise it’s all Vereen.
For desperate answers to equally desperate fantasy questions, you can always ask @TheGameSheet on Twitter, or leave them in the comments.