The NFL free agent market can be chaotic.
Unlike hockey, high-profile players routinely hit the market and change teams. Players you’ve never heard of receive $20 million in guaranteed money, yet it’s frenetic and extremely exciting.
So to get you prepared for a flurry of roster moves that will come when the 2015 league year begins next Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. ET, here’s everything you need to know about this year’s free agent crop.
Franchised players: WR Dez Bryant (Cowboys), WR Demaryius Thomas (Broncos), OLB Justin Houston (Chiefs), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (Giants), K Steven Gostkowski (Patriots). Yes, a kicker.
TEAMS TO WATCH:
1) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville has the most salary cap space and plans to be aggressive to upgrade their defence, offensive line, and receiving corps.
2) Oakland Raiders: Like Jacksonville, Oakland is way under the cap (close to $70 million in cap space). They have a new coaching staff and are ready to strike to fill plenty of holes on their roster. The Raiders had strong interest in receiver Randall Cobb before he re-signed with Green Bay over the weekend.
3) Cleveland Browns: The Browns already brought in a new quarterback (Josh McCown). Now they need to find him some weapons. Cleveland will look to spend some of its $49 million in cap space on a wide receiver and tight end.
4) Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles released longtime starters Todd Herremans (signed with Indianapolis) and Trent Cole and dealt LeSean McCoy to the Buffalo Bills in order to aggressively approach free agency. They’ll actively look to upgrade their secondary.
5) Indianapolis Colts: The Colts have a very young team so they don’t have a ton of players making big money. Can they spend it wisely this time around? General manager Ryan Grigson made a lot of free agent mistakes two years ago.
THE BIG NAMES:
Ndamukong Suh, DT: Suh is the best free agent to hit the market since Reggie White in the early 1990s. He’s going to receive a monster contract (could be up to $60 million in guarantees). It’s expected he’ll join the Miami Dolphins as soon as the free agent period begins.
DeMarco Murray, RB: The reigning NFL offensive player of the year is coming off a career season after leading the NFL in rushing yards. Dallas would love to keep the 27-year-old, but they may have difficulty affording both him and Dez Bryant. If Murray can’t reach a deal with Dallas, expect Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego and Tampa Bay to target the running back.
Julius Thomas, TE: Peyton Manning is a big fan of the ascending tight end, but it’s unlikely he’ll return to Denver. He’s a difference-maker at a good age (26) and can create mismatches in the middle of the field and the red zone. Jacksonville and Seattle are logical destinations.
ABOUT TO STRIKE IT RICH:
Byron Maxwell, CB: Because of a relatively thin corner crop, Maxwell has extremely good value and could get a deal worth over $8 million per season. In Seattle, Maxwell developed into a consistent starter opposite Richard Sherman. Expect the Eagles to land him with a contract that pays him over $10 million per season.
Pernell McPhee, OLB: McPhee isn’t a big name but he was quietly productive as a rotational player in Baltimore. He showed that he can rush the passer from multiple positions and he offers versatility to play in either a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme. However, many ex-Ravens haven’t been productive as their snaps increase.
Honourable mention: Rodney Hudson (C), Rahim Moore (S)
EXPECTED TO DEPART:
Michael Crabtree, WR: Crabtree’s production dropped off after a breakout season in 2013. He’ll want to find a team that passes the ball more consistently. Crabtree, a reliable route runner with good hands, is an ideal fit as a No. 2 receiver.
Torrey Smith, WR: Baltimore has admitted they’ll have trouble paying Smith what he can get on the open market. Smith has elite speed and can create big plays down the field. San Francisco is rumoured to be the early frontrunner.
Orlando Franklin, G/T: The Toronto native isn’t the best fit for Denver’s new zone scheme, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be in demand. Franklin played well after moving to guard last season and he was a capable right tackle before that. San Diego has been reportedly in pursuit.
Malcolm Smith, LB: The 2013 Super Bowl MVP barely played any defensive snaps down the stretch last season. It’s not a knock against Smith, but he was buried behind quality starters in Seattle. He’s a capable starting linebacker and two teams with former Seahawks defensive coaches (Atlanta and Oakland) are candidates to sign him.
C.J. Spiller, RB: The acquisition of LeSean McCoy sealed Spiller’s fate in Buffalo. The explosive running back never quite lived up to his draft status and appears better suited as a situational running back.
Honourable mention: Greg Hardy (DE), Mike Iupati (G)
STRONGEST POSITIONS:
Defensive tackle: Whether it’s interior pass rushers or run stuffers, this group is loaded. Between Suh, Terrance Knighton, Nick Fairley, Jared Odrick, and now Vince Wilfork, there are plenty of options.
Wide receiver: There are plenty of big names here. Smith and Crabtree are the headliners on the market. Andre Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Percy Harvin, and Mike Wallace could all join them soon.
Edge rusher: There’s a lot of intrigue here, but there’s also some bust potential. Hardy, and McPhee are questionable acquisitions. Players such as Jason Worilds, Derrick Morgan, Jabaal Sheard, and Brandon Graham have shown flashes but have not produced consistently.
WEAKEST POSITIONS:
Quarterback: It’s ugly out there. The best options are Jake Locker, Brian Hoyer, and Matt Moore. No wonder Buffalo traded for Matt Cassel.
Linebacker: The top free agent linebackers are either declining (Lance Briggs), injury-prone (Sean Weatherspoon), or come with significant risk (Rolando McClain). The best available include Brandon Spikes and Mason Foster.
Safety: This group is top heavy and there’s very limited depth. The Patriots reached an agreement with Devin McCourty on Sunday. So beyond Rahim Moore, and Tyvon Branch, there aren’t a lot of starter-quality options available. Teams will overpay for the top two.
