Every Sunday morning Sportsnet’s NFL experts will serve up a playbook containing the 10 things you need to know as of a few hours before kickoff. Whether you play fantasy football, like to wager or just want to sound smart at your local watering hole, we’ve got you covered.
1. The Game Of The Week
Two decent teams? I’m in: Just a heads up–there are a LOT of games this week featuring a pretty good team against a pretty–or even very–bad team. There are still reasons to watch those games, and some of them are pretty compelling reasons, but let’s just say there weren’t a slew of challengers for this spot. Which is too bad, because on paper this game can hold its own with the best from any week this season. There’s no shortage of storylines: the Cowboys with a chance to lock up the division with a win or a tie; Andrew Luck picking and choosing his victims to help his MVP case from among the inconsistent (to put it charitably) Dallas secondary; DeMarco Murray possibly choosing to play with a still-healing hand and ruining his season in perfect Jerry Jones-era Cowboys fashion; Donte Moncrief breaking out one week after he broke everyone’s fantasy hearts. There’s a lot to like here. The only drawback is that the Colts don’t have much to play for beyond seeding–but that should be enough to keep the passes flying. Vegas certainly thinks so. The 55-point over-under on this one is the Sunday’s highest total by nearly a full touchdown.
The Fantasy Sleepers
2. Shane Vereen, RB, NE: Vereen’s had an awful year, at least relative to fantasy expectations. But he’s got a few things going for him here: A Jets front seven that makes power running very tough, injuries to Julian Edelman and LaGarrette Blount that should open up both targets and carries; and a history of killing Rex Ryan’s defence—four career games (only three in which he really saw action) with three touchdowns and roughly 100 all-purpose yards per game.
3. Joseph Randle, RB, DAL: This is more of a desperation play, or one for the large daily tournaments. Murray is expected to suit up and start for the Cowboys, but he’ll be playing with a cast on his hand and if Dallas is smart, they’ll cut back on those punishing between-the-tackles runs where their star might end up underneath some very large men. Randle would be in line for those touches, and they could include a goalline look or two…and in some leagues that might make the difference.
4. Shaun Hill, QB, STL: Plays like Shaun Hill today are proof that fantasy is as much about the matchup as the player. The Giants have been coughing up points to opposing QBs the past few weeks. A short list of pivots who have lit up the G-Men recently: Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin III and Tony Romo. Only the Titans, a disaster in their own right, failed to produce a solid QB performance against New York. If you need a QB at this stage of the game, or you’re going cheap in a daily game, Hill’s your guy.
The Numbers
5. 2.5: Lamar Miller’s yards per carry on carries after his tenth Courtesy of the Miami Herald comes this curious little stat. Fans have been wondering why Miller, easily the most talented back on the Dolphins, has seen his touches capped. And this might be why: 5.4 yards per carry on totes 1-10; and less than half that on subsequent carries. Hey, some guys just aren’t cut out to take a 60-minute workload in the trenches, and teams have to use them accordingly.
6. -109.2: The Arizona Cardinals’ overall grade, according to Pro Football Focus This is a little nuts. The Cards are facing Seattle today with the NFC West lead on the line. They’re the only NFC team to have clinched a playoff berth. They’re 11-3. And PFF says their grades make them better than only the Titans, Jets, Bills, Bucs, Raiders and Jaguars. Pro Football Focus is an outstandingly useful site. They’re right far, far more often than they’re wrong–and they’re not necessarily wrong here. The Cards are held together by a stout defence, Bruce Arians’ genius… and spit and bailing twine. It’ll be a fascinating, and perhaps brutally short, playoff run.
7. 27.3: Johnny Manziel’s QB rating last week Hey, we hyped him–it’s only right we own up and follow up. We said he’d make plays, and he did. Terrible ones. Over and over again. Still, there’s no way Manziel doesn’t improve this week…unless of course he gets even worse, which remains, just barely, technically possible. To put that into perspective, however, a second start worse than his first would put Johnny Football into the same category as young quarterback flops like Jimmy Clausen, and we all know those guys would never ever find themselves starting in the NFL again…right?
The Plotlines
1 p.m.
8. Lions at Bears: Not exactly a slew of hyper-competitive games kicking off at 1 p.m., so why not tune into what should be an entertaining trainwreck? The Lions’ elite defence against the Jimmy Clausen-led Bears! Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate against Chicago’s non-existent pass defence! Copious shots of Jay Cutler looking disaffected on the sidelines as his team likely gets pummelled by a division rival! Oh, and Marc Trestman’s second-last game ever as an NFL head coach. That too.
4:25 p.m.
9. Bills at Raiders: Yeah…we used the only really good 4 p.m. game up at the top of this column, so this is all I’ve got for you. Sorry. But hey–the Bills win this game and they’re 9-6 and still in the playoff race. Could it be a Christmas miracle for Buffalo? Or will they blow it by losing to the Oakland Raiders? Either way, it’s going to feature lots of errant passes.
Sunday Night
10. Seahawks at Cardinals: Ryan Lindley–this week’s man on the Arizona cast of rotating QBs–is quite literally the worst quarterback over the past three years of NFL football. When you’re inspiring opposing fanbases to delve into the archives to find out just how bad you’d have to be to have the worst day ever for a quarterback, you’re not setting the bar high. You’re not even picking the bar up off the ground, really. Remember, Jimmy Clausen plays at 1 p.m. Seven hours later, Ryan Lindley might struggle to match his statistics. This is the thing about the NFL, there’s always something historic happening.