When it all comes down to it, playoff seeding means very little.
Sure, in the last two years both No. 1 seeds from each conference have advanced to the Super Bowl, but that’s an aberration. Since 1991, only four times have both of the top seeds survived until the NFL’s championship game, and that includes the last two seasons.
What matters more than seeding? It’s simple, really. It’s about who’s hot, and right now, the NFL’s playoff teams that are rolling are not the ones that will be watching the wild-card games from home—at least not the ones from the AFC.
So with that we present the Sportsnet NFL Playoff Power Rankings.
The traditional power rankings have gone the way of the 2015 regular season, and now as each round of the playoffs approaches, we’ll be re-ranking the remaining post-season teams vying for the Vince Lombardi Trophy differently.
These revamped rankings kick off with a look at the most dangerous teams in the dance as the post-season gets underway.
1) Seattle Seahawks
Aside from that blip against the Rams in Week 16 (St. Louis is Seattle’s kryptonite, apparently), no team is hotter than the Seahawks as the 2016 post-season gets underway. The Seahawks are winners of six of their last seven, beating opponents by an average of 22 points over that stretch. Russell Wilson is playing the best football of his life, having thrown 24 touchdowns to just one interception over the last seven weeks. Oh, and Marshawn Lynch is back. You can be rest assured that every other team in the NFC would love to see the Vikings knock off the Seahawks this weekend.
2) Carolina Panthers
The owners of the best record in the league are also the owners of the NFL’s most dangerous weapon: Cam Newton. The soon-to-be MVP accounted for 45 of Carolina’s 54 offensive touchdowns this season and leads the league’s highest-scoring offence, which racks up an average of more than 31 points per game. Aside from Newton, running back Jonathan Stewart will be healthy come divisional weekend, and rookie receiver Devin Funchess started to catch on near the end of the season.
And Carolina’s defence is no slouch, either. The Panthers boast the NFL’s best pass defender in Josh Norman, the best linebacking duo in Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, and ranked sixth this season with 44 sacks—11 of which came from defensive tackle Kawann Short.
3) Arizona Cardinals
The NFC West champs might just be the most complete team in the NFL. Led by two renaissance men on offence in MVP candidate Carson Palmer and reborn receiver Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals offence ranked second in points for and first in total yards. But Arizona’s most dangerous weapon might just be rookie running back David Johnson, who’s a dual threat on the ground and in the pass game. On the other side of the ball, the Cards have one of the league’s most opportunistic defences, finishing the season second in turnovers forced (33) with six touchdowns.
Sure, the Cardinals were embarrassed at home by the rival Seahawks last week, but before that Arizona had won nine straight, and I don’t expect Bruce Arians to allow a repeat of Week 17 come Divisional Weekend.
4) Kansas City Chiefs
Has any other team dominated as quietly as Andy Reid’s Chiefs? K.C. enters the playoffs riding a 10-game win streak after a wretched 1-5 start, and they’ve done it by protecting the football and playing stingy defence. The Chiefs have turned the ball over just 15 times this season (second lowest) and eight of those came in the first six games. Meanwhile, the defence is giving an unbelievably low 12.8 points per game over the last 10 games and have given up 100 yards on the ground just three times over that span. With all the injuries that have hampered the upper-echelon teams in the AFC, don’t be surprised if the Chiefs keep that win streak rolling.
5) Washington Redskins
It might sound crazy, but red-hot Washington is one of the post-season’s potential surprise teams. Sure, they’re the winners of the worst division in the NFC and until a month ago were one of the league’s least-consistent teams but, like the Seahawks, Washington has been on a tear over the last few weeks. There aren’t many quarterbacks who are playing better than Kirk Cousins right now, who has 12 passing touchdowns and one pick over his team’s four-game winning streak. Coupled with Cousins’s play, the NFC East champs have a distinct home-field advantage having lost just two games at FedEx Field in the regular season. Depending on how the chips fall, we might see Washington make a run.
6) Pittsburgh Steelers
In the weeks leading up to the playoffs, many tabbed the Steelers as the team everyone wanted to avoid in the AFC. And why wouldn’t you? With Ben Roethlisberger healthy under centre and the deadly trio of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton, the Pittsburgh offence has the ability to score in bunches, and when the Steelers find themselves in a shootout, it’s almost impossible to keep up. But that same offence has also shown a tendency to turn the ball over—they’ve coughed it up three times in each of the last two games—and they could find themselves shorthanded at running back once again with an injury to DeAngelo Williams. Yes, Pittsburgh is dangerous and could put together a strong post-season, but they could just as easily shoot themselves in the foot this weekend and be bounced in the wild-card round.
7) Denver Broncos
If defence truly does win championships, then the Broncos have the upper hand. Denver is formidable on all three levels: the defensive line is the league’s most dominant, posting a league-best 52 sacks this season; the underrated group of linebackers has helped establish Denver as the league’s third-best run defence; and the secondary is unrivaled, ranking first in pass yards allowed this season with fewer than 200 a game.
Uncharacteristically, however, Denver’s downfall is its offence. Brock Osweiler was fine in relief of an injured Peyton Manning, but fine probably won’t cut it this time of year. Manning’s effectiveness will ultimately determine the Broncos’ fate, and based on his play earlier this season that’s not a spot John Elway should be incredibly comfortable with. The run game, though, may be the X factor in Denver, as was evident in Sunday’s win over the Chargers. If everything comes together for the Broncos, this can be a championship team, but that’s a whole lot of “ifs.”
8) Cincinnati Bengals
With a healthy Andy Dalton, the Bengals would be top-three on this list, which is kind of ironic considering that if Dalton was playing all the talk surrounding Cincinnati would be about the QB’s inability to win in the post-season. But now with Dalton on the sidelines that talk is that the Bengals can’t win in the playoffs without him.
Anyway, it really would be a shame if the Bengals bowed out in the wild card, because with No. 14 at the helm, this is a fun team to watch. Cincy has as many or more exciting players on offence than any other team still playing. However, I’m hesitant to say AJ McCarron can make the most of them, especially in the playoffs.
9) New England Patriots
The Patriots needed a first-round bye more than anyone. Firstly, to get Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Sebastion Vollmer and Dont’a Hightower healthy, but more to find out how to protect Tom Brady. New England whimpered into the playoffs, finishing the regular season 2-4 after winning their first 10 games, and it’s because the offensive line is an absolute mess. Brady is getting battered week-in and week-out, and if there’s anything we’ve learned about beating New England over the years, it’s that the key is getting in No. 12’s grill. If the Patriots can’t get it together along the offensive line, I could see them being one-and-done.
10) Minnesota Vikings
The key to victory for the Vikings will be defence. On offence, what you see is what you get: Minnesota will run the ball more often than not, and — due to Teddy Bridgewater’s limitations and horrible protection from the offensive line—the passing game will be the most conservative of all the teams in the post-season. But the Vikings have one of the league’s best defensive lines and the unit does a great job of getting after the quarterback, which will be a crucial factor in getting revenge against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks on Sunday afternoon. If they can’t get that done, the Vikings don’t have much hope.
11) Houston Texans
Like the Vikings, the name of the game for the Texans is defence—or to be more accurate, J.J. Watt. No defensive player changes an opposing team’s game plan more than the reigning (and most likely soon-to-be) defensive player of the year. Watt has single-handedly been the catalyst of Houston’s mid-season resurgence on the way to its first AFC South title in three seasons. Watt and a defence that has allowed just 12.6 points per game since a Week 7 beatdown at the hands of the Dolphins is why Houston has been able to survive four different starting quarterbacks and win seven of their final nine games. I don’t think the Texans can beat the Chiefs this weekend, but crazier things have happened. One thing I can guarantee, though, is that it’ll be a defensive battle.
12) Green Bay Packers
Losers of two straight, the Packers simply aren’t themselves right now. Aaron Rodgers and the passing game have been completely handcuffed by a receiving corps that has proven weaker without Jordy Nelson than we could’ve ever imagined. Since head coach Mike McCarthy took back the play-calling duties after the “Hail Mary” win over the Lions, Green Bay has focused more on running the ball, but even that isn’t going very well. They’ve turned the ball over six times in the last three games—a stat almost unheard of since Rodgers took over from Brett Favre. Unless the offence can break out in a big way on the road in Washington Saturday, don’t expect the Packers to survive wild-card weekend.
