NFL Power Rankings: The race to playoffs is on

99.9%: With a three-game lead in the AFC East and a perfect record, the chances of an epic meltdown seem unlikely barring a catastrophic injury. Now the Patriots get a chance at revenge against the Giants, who are the only team in the league New England hasn’t beaten since 2008.

99.9%: The Bengals have a big lead in the AFC North, and although it’s fathomable that the Steelers could catch Cincinnati over the final seven weeks of the season, Cincy’s Week 8 win in Pittsburgh makes it improbable.

99.6%: The Panthers have won 12 consecutive regular season games, and Sunday’s win over the Packers gives Carolina a big advantage in the race for the NFC’s top seed. The NFC South isn’t a guarantee, however, as Cam Newton and Co. still have two crucial matchups against the now-slumping Falcons in December.

95.5%: For the first time this season, the Broncos defence was exposed in Sunday’s surprising loss to the Colts. With a three-game lead, Denver remains the favourite to win the AFC West, but still have four division games remaining over the next month and a half.

95.5%: Things are not looking good right now for the Packers—the offensive line is struggling to protect Aaron Rodgers, handcuffing the offence, while the defence continues to give up big play after big play. They made the Panthers’ below-average receiving corps look like All-Pros. To make matters worse, players are fighting each other on the sideline. With the Vikings hot on their tail, Green Bay’s got to right the ship, and fast.

94.4%: Four of Arizona’s final eight games are against division opponents, including two against the Seahawks, the first of which is the Week 10 Sunday nighter in Seattle. The Cardinals have proven they’re a good team, but the real test starts now.

46.2%: Green Bay should still be considered the favourite in the NFC North, but Minnesota has been the superior team over the last couple of weeks—to be fair, though, they’ve faced weaker competition. The two play each other twice in the coming weeks, including in the season finale. Those games will probably determine the division winner, but more likely than not, the Vikings will be a wild-card team come January.

69.4%: There’s little-to-no chance of catching the Patriots, but the Jets control their own destiny in the wild-card picture. Two showdowns against the Bills, starting Thursday night, will be the difference in deciding which of the other AFC East teams reach the post-season.

44%: For the first time in these rankings (but certainly not the last), the ranking doesn’t line up with the percentage. While a few other teams have better chances of making the playoffs right now, don’t count the Seahawks out. A team with this much experience and character is always dangerous, especially with three straight home games. And with four division games left, their percentage could rise mighty fast.

51.4%: Sunday’s win over the Raiders was huge. Not only did it keep the Steelers from falling another game behind the Bengals in the standings, but it gave Pittsburgh the tiebreaker over Oakland, which could be crucial down the stretch. Even with the devastating injuries this team has been handed, they continue to put up massive numbers on offence. If Big Ben misses only one more game, expect Pittsburgh to push for the No. 5 seed in the AFC.

39.3%: The loss to Pittsburgh will sting. Raiders coach Jack Del Rio voiced his disappointment with Oakland’s defence after the loss to Pittsburgh. And Del Rio’s concerns are warranted—the Raiders have given up an average of 29 points per game over the last three weeks.

58.4%: What is going on with the Falcons? A team that started 5-0, averaging more than 32 points per game, is 1-3 in their last four and is scoring just 16.8 over that stretch. The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time.

59.3%: That thrilling overtime win over the Cowboys coupled with the Monday night victory over the Giants last month have vaulted the inconsistent Eagles into the role of favourites in the NFC East. Sunday night was the first time all of Philadelphia’s new pieces on offence played well in the same game, and the results couldn’t have been better.

38.3%: This team is impossible to figure out. The Giants have alternated wins and losses over the last five weeks and those games all have one thing in common: Ugly play. But this is what we’ve come to expect from New York, right? Hang around, squeak into the playoffs, and then it’s a new season. Something tells me, though, this year will be different, starting Sunday against New England.

19.2%: Trailing both the Patriots and Jets in the AFC East, and stuck in the middle of the log-jam that is developing in the AFC wild-card race, health will be the biggest factor for the Bills in the final weeks. The team that took the field Sunday in a win over the Dolphins projects much better than the EJ Manuel-led teams of weeks past.

54.8%: Even with Andrew Luck out of the lineup for anywhere from two to six weeks (or more), the Colts still have a couple of things going for them: 1) Matt Hasselbeck is 2-0 as a starter this season, and 2) they play in the AFC South.

29.9%: The Rams are looking at some good and some bad heading into Week 10. The good is that they’ve defeated each of their divisional rivals so far this season, which could come in handy come playoff time. St. Louis also boasts a top-five defence and one of the best young running backs in the game. The bad? The offence and specifically the passing game, which ranks second-last and dead-last in touchdowns and yards, respectively. A playoff run may prove challenging if you can’t pass.

11.7%: There’s a simple explanation for why the Saints have less than a 15 -percent chance of playing in January: defence. New Orleans ranks 31st in points and yards allowed. They’ve given up at least 410 yards six times this season and surrendered 24 passing touchdowns, five more than any other team.

21.4%: At 3-5, the Chiefs are on the outer edges of the AFC wild-card but have shown some signs of turning things around. Kansas City won two straight before last week’s bye, including an absolute beatdown of the Lions in London. The Chiefs still have two big games against the Broncos, and crucial contests against wild-card competitors in the Bills and Raiders (times two). Kansas City is a long shot, but it’s better than having no shot at all.

1.9%: The Dolphins bounced back from a 1-3 start under Dan Campbell with two consecutive wins, but have since dropped back-to-back division games. Now 0-4 in the AFC East, the chances of a playoff berth for the first time since 2008 have all but completely slipped through Miami’s fingers.

2.2%: With an 0-3 record (which includes handing Detroit its lone win) in the NFC North, and the Packers and Vikings firmly established atop the division, a second-half revival seems unlikely in the Windy City.

10.3%: Washington is still alive, but just barely. If it wasn’t for the fact that neither the Giants nor Eagles can put it all together, Kirk Cousins and Friends would already be prepping for an off-season guaranteed to make headlines.

6.5%: The Jameis Winston–led Buccaneers have shown an ability to compete against all competition in the quarterback’s rookie season, only getting blown out a couple of times in eight games (a step in the right direction for the Bucs). One more solid off-season and Tampa’s playoff chances could be much higher in 2016.

1.3%: How many 2-6 teams have gone on to make the playoffs? None. Zero. Zilch. It’s got to be tough to find much to play for with an outlook that grim, but the Ravens’ struggles have certainly established some key needs for the off-season: better receiving options for Joe Flacco and an overhaul in the secondary.

3.8%: If we’ve learned one thing from the Cowboys this season, it’s that the team leans too heavily upon Tony Romo. Much like the 2011 Indianapolis Colts when Peyton Manning missed the entire season, Dallas has collapsed without No. 9 under centre. With Romo approaching 36, Jerry and Stephen Jones have got to start looking for the Romo’s heir or it could mean many more seasons of dismay in Dallas.

0.1%: When Blaine Gabbert is bringing stability to a franchise, you know there’s a big problem.

14.6%: The injury to Andrew Luck could blow the AFC South wide open, and the Texans seem like the obvious team to take advantage. But Houston is wildly inconsistent, and two of their three wins have come against division opponents not named the Colts. If this team is the biggest threat to Indy’s division crown, Colts fans should sleep easy.

8.2%: Even with the Colts facing adversity, Tennessee doesn’t present much of a challenge in the dreadful AFC South. But Titans fans can take solace in the fact Marcus Mariota was spectacular in his first game back from injury and since the firing of former head coach Ken Whisenhunt. The 2015 season may be a lost cause, but Mariota represents what should be a bright future.

22.9%: Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offence have taken strides in the quarterback’s sophomore year, and the team appears to be on the upswing. But winning close games—four of their losses have been by five points or less—remains a skill Jacksonville has yet to master.

0.1%: Philip Rivers said it better than I ever could: “When it’s like this, you kind of want to just dig a hole and hide for a little while.”

0.1%: Thursday night’s thrashing at the hands of the division-leading Bengals showed once again just how far the Browns are from competing in the AFC.

0%: A playoff team and 11-game winner a season ago, the 2015 Lions are the only team with a zero-percent chance of making the post-season. Now Detroit is part of a totally different race: the race to the No. 1 pick. They’re leading by a mile with a 43.4-percent shot at the top selection.