Got a hot topic? Our NFL panel has opinions. The panel includes NFL editor Craig Battle, Sportsnet deputy editor Jordan Heath-Rawlings, staff writers Mike Johnston and Jeff Simmons, and associate editor Geoff Lowe.
1. Which team is your upset pick against the spread in Week 11?
BATTLE: I like the Cincinnati Bengals to cover a currently five-point spread versus the Cardinals. No knock at all against Arizona, but the Bengals are 8-1 and a week ago were No. 2 on most power rankings. No, they did not look good in the Monday nighter against Houston, but it’s no secret that Andy Dalton struggles 1) in nationally televised games, and 2) against elite pass-rushing teams. The good news for Bengals’ fans is that while the Cardinals have a nice D overall, their pass rush is ranked just 27th in the league, according to Pro Football Focus (compare that to the Texans who sit at 11th overall in that measure). That means Dalton will have the time he needs to be successful and at the very least keep this one close.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: The Luck-less (literally and figuratively) Indianapolis Colts are getting six points against the Falcons. Here’s the thing: While Julio Jones is terrifying and Davonte Freeman has been exceptional, the rest of the Falcons have been a mess for a little whole now. Scared of Matt Hasselbeck facing that defence? Don’t be. The Falcons D is fresh off getting smoked by Blaine “I’m still in the NFL!” Gabbert. Scared of backing a backup quarterback? Hasselbeck’s been far better than Andrew Luck this season, statistically—he’s played two games and hasn’t thrown a pick yet. And the Colts should have a fresh Frank Gore and a more-in-sync-with-the-offence Ahmad Bradshaw to lean on. I don’t know if they can beat Atlanta, but it wouldn’t shock me and I could definitely see them falling a field goal short.
JOHNSTON: This week’s Monday nighter between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills is one of the most compelling games of the week. The Bills finally have a healthy Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins and Karlos Williams going strong, while it will be interesting to see how the Patriots’ offence responds without both Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis. The Pats are favoured by 7-7.5 points, depending on which betting site you visit, but this is no gimme game. Buffalo is coming off back-to-back wins over the other two AFC East teams. It’s possible they can make it a clean sweep of their division and hand the Pats their first loss. Win or lose, I like the Bills to keep it close and cover.
LOWE: You might call me crazy, but I like the San Francisco 49ers to keep it within 12.5 points in Seattle. I could go on about how San Francisco looked much better since making the switch to Blaine Gabbert, but I won’t waste your time. This comes down to the Seahawks, whose struggles along the offensive line have decimated their game plan and their season. If Gabbert and the Niners protect the ball well on Sunday, the Seahawks won’t cover.
SIMMONS: The Green Bay Packers have been a mess lately. Their receivers aren’t getting open on their routes. They can’t run the ball. And Aaron Rodgers is pressing as a result. But I still like them to cover the narrow spread against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have a time-tested winning formula—run the ball and play great defence—but their limited passing game under Teddy Bridgewater will make it challenging to beat Green Bay—even at home. The Vikings remind me of the 2011 49ers with Alex Smith. Green Bay gets one or two more explosive plays that give them the edge.
2. Which underdog could you see winning outright?
BATTLE: In my mind the Miami Dolphins, a slim underdog this weekend, have a better-than-even shot of beating Dallas. They’re at home, and though the Cowboys will get a boost from having Tony Romo back in the fold, he’s missed seven games and is likely to have to shake off a little rust. What’s more, the Dolphins have been a much better team since parting ways with Joe Philbin, and are 3-2 over the last five with losses to just New England and Buffalo.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: I’m sure this will be a popular pick, and it deserves to be. The Denver Broncos are getting points on some betting sites for the matchup with Chicago. The Broncos have one of the best defences (if not the best) in the NFL. Chicago has a quarterback who could charitably be called mistake-prone. And Denver has finally benched the man who, despite his resumé, was the NFL’s worst starting quarterback in 2015. Who knows how well Brock Osweiler will fare in the first start of his career, replacing Peyton Manning, but it would take a heck of a failure for him to be worse than Manning has been recently. The Bears defence, meanwhile, has shown small signs of life but is still a suspect unit on the whole. If Osweiler can get the ball out, both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should be open. Peyton couldn’t get the ball to them—if Osweiler can, this could be a total romp.
JOHNSTON: The Philadelphia Eagles are a frustrating team to watch this season. So much talent on paper yet so inconsistent. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, meanwhile, despite being young and mistake prone, have looked decent since Week 3. With Sam Bradford and Ryan Mathews both out with injuries, I’m calling for the Bucs to win on the road in the upset of the week.
LOWE: Another off-the-board pick here—I’m going with the Detroit Lions to beat the Raiders at Ford Field. The Lions are coming off an impressive win against the Packers in Green Bay, their first at Lambeau since 1991. The defence was stout, and the team endured despite some late gaffes that could’ve cost them the game. But this pick is more about the Raiders, who have been dismal in a pair of losses—especially on defence—since two wins over the Chargers and Jets. Oakland can’t stop anybody, and the offence really struggled last week against the Vikings.
SIMMONS: Every week, I watch the Eagles and expect to see signs of improvement but I find myself underwhelmed on a regular basis. The offensive personnel doesn’t seem to fit, they aren’t playing to the strengths of their players and they’ve gotten lousy production out of their quarterbacks. On the other hand, Tampa Bay is getting better. Jameis Winston is on a good progression for a rookie and there’s lots of improving pieces on that defence. So the Bucs are able get out of their way and put together a good road performance in Philly.
3. Who’s your Week 11 fantasy sleeper?
BATTLE: Golden Tate. He’s had a bad year, no question. But when you look at who they’ve played, you can put a little of that on strength of schedule. Five of the eight defences they’ve played sit in the top nine teams in terms of pass coverage. Their competition this week? The Raiders, in Detroit. The Raiders’ pass-coverage ranking? Twenty-ninth. That’s easily the worst the Lions have faced all season. They’re going to put up points, and Tate is likely to get in on them, just as he did when the Lions faced the Bears (17th in pass coverage) at home in Week 6.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: I won’t say Osweiler here, because outside of two-QB leagues quarterback sleepers are worthless. But if you’re desperate, he’s got a real shot at a good day. For the rest of us, take a look at Eagles TE Zach Ertz. He hasn’t been getting much press, because he’s still looking for his first touchdown of the season, but he’s had 7, 7, 8, 6 and 10 targets in his past five games—that’s the kind of opportunity that produces results. I’d feel confident playing Ertz in leagues where I needed a TE, and also in leagues with multiple flex spots where I don’t have solid WR3s and RB3s to fill them.
JOHNSTON: Terrance Williams hasn’t been worth having on your roster since Week 2. Not coincidentally, that was the last time Tony Romo played. With Romo finally returning from a broken collarbone, and Dez Bryant healthy on the other side, Williams returns to being a fantasy commodity and is a strong sleeper candidate this week against the Dolphins.
LOWE: I like a pair of Eagles this week against the Buccaneers. With Sam Bradford out, Mark Sanchez steps in and, unlike Bradford, is familiar with Chip Kelly’s offence and has run it efficiently. In nine games last season, the Sanchise averaged almost 17 fantasy points a game, while the Bucs are giving up nearly 19 a game to QBs this season. The other Eagle I like is Darren Sproles, who should get more touches with Ryan Mathews out. If you remember, No. 43 played a major role in Philly’s offence earlier this season, putting up 12.6 in Week 1 and 15.6 in Week 3.
SIMMONS: With Josh Norman expected to cover DeSean Jackson, Redskins receiver Jamison Crowder could be a due for a breakout game. Crowder has played over 80 per cent of the offensive snaps out of the slot since Jackson returned from injury and the Panthers—despite one of the best defences in the league—have trouble guarding shifty, quick inside receivers. Per Rotoworld, slot corner Bene Benwikere is ranked as the 100th cover corner out of 101 qualifiers by Pro Football Focus over the last four weeks, and the Redskins could be playing from behind and racking up yards in garbage time. The rookie wideout has almost eight targets per game over his last seven contests.