The NFL draft is notable not just for the names that come off the board, but for the names that are floated via trade.
In-season trades in the NFL are rare. Now that free agency is for the most part over, the best time to evaluate the landscape around the league is at the draft. Which is why we often see blockbusters on draft day.
One rumoured player who should be on the move is New England Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo.
Garoppolo is still on his rookie contract with one year left on his four-year, $3.5-million deal. The Patriots could keep him at a cheap salary as Tom Brady insurance, but eventually they’ll have to franchise-tag him. Rival teams are motivated to get him now as they have one year of him on a steal deal. Plus, Jacoby Brissett is a decent insurance policy himself.
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Brady has said he’s playing three to five more years. The leverage is going to go down next year as you know Bill Belichick is not going to turn over his team to Garopollo instead of Brady. There will not be a repeat of the Tony Romo-vs.-Dak Prescott situation.
So the prudent choice is to trade him now before the price drops and opposing teams start calling your bluff knowing you can’t afford to let him walk for nothing.
Supply and demand is also a factor. Jay Cutler is the only proven free-agent QB option besides Colin Kaepernick, who brings other challenges.
All of the QBs projected to go early in the draft have red flags. Mitchell Trubisky lacks experience. Deshaun Watson throws bad interceptions. Patrick Mahomes relies too heavily on his arm strength and hasn’t taken snaps under centre. Josh Dobbs doesn’t have an impressive arm. DeShone Kizer was only 12-11 as a starter at Notre Dame and never fulfilled his physical potential.
Garoppolo would be a superior day one starter over any of those players and would cost you less in the first season of his career.
Jimmy G has gone 2-0 as a starter with five TD passes and zero interceptions in three seasons with the Patriots. The fact that he has less than a full-season body of work will decrease his trade value, but there are precedents that say lack of experience isn’t as much of a deterrent as you think.
Rob Johnson was traded to the Buffalo Bills for first- and fourth-round picks in 1998. He had previously thrown only 25 passes backing up Mark Brunell in Jacksonville. That first-round pick became Pro Bowl running back Fred Taylor.
Matt Schaub had thrown only 161 career passes when he was traded to the Houston Texans before the 2007 season. Atlanta got two second-round picks and a first-round pick swap that helped Atlanta move up two spots to No. 8 in the first round.
Matt Cassel famously stepped in when Tom Brady was hurt in 2008. In the off-season, the Pats cashed in and traded him and Mike Vrabel to the Kansas City Chiefs for a second-round pick.
Garoppolo, like real estate, is worth what anyone is willing to pay. Given the bad quarterback class and the fact the NFL is a passing league, he’s a major asset even with a limited amount of time for appraisal. Bill Belichick needs to sell high on draft day before the market crashes.