Every Sunday morning Sportsnet’s NFL experts will serve up a playbook containing the storylines you need to know as of a few hours before kickoff. Whether you play fantasy football, like to wager or just want to sound smart at your local watering hole, we’ve got you covered.
Wake Up Call: There’s likely football on your TV as you’re reading this. In fact, there’s every chance that, before you get to the end of this paragraph, the Detroit Lions have sacked Matt Ryan or at least forced him to throw the ball away. The Falcons offensive line is a mess–well, the Falcons whole offence is a mess, really, grading out as the 25th-ranked attack in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. The Lions, meanwhile, are in the top 10 in PFF’s rankings in every defensive category. So spare a thought, as you sip your coffee, for poor Julio Jones, who was totally open on that last play if only the line could have held up long enough to get him the damn ball…
The Return of the Bungles: It’s tough to say it’s anyone’s fault that the Cincinnati Bengals have looked so beatable in the last three weeks following their 3-0 start. It’s a function of their offence. Without A.J. Green, opposing defences have very little to fear downfield and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson’s gameplan revolves around a deep threat opening up holes for both Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Having the defenders in the box primed to stop the run also makes the Bengals’ lovely little trick plays much easier to pull off. But all of that depends on having one of the game’s deadliest receivers threatening the secondary. With apologies to Mohamed Sanu, who has made great strides this season, he ain’t A.J. You should be fading the Bengals everywhere possible until they regain some of their identity—especially this week against a defence as good as Baltimore’s.
Speaking of Downfield Playmakers… Percy Harvin would love the chance to remind you that he belongs in that category. And since Rex Ryan and company traded for him with plans to keep him happy, they’re salivating at the idea of giving him exactly that. In fact, in his first game as a Jet, Harvin will likely get more downfield targets than anything else, because he hasn’t had time to mesh with the offence on the bubble screens and quick routes that he was running in Seattle. You can’t teach a guy a playbook in one week—but “go deep, shake the defenders then run” is universal. Expect Harvin to play only about half the offensive snaps, but he’ll get his chance to show off his skills. It makes him a nice boom-bust play for the back half of your fantasy lineup.
Meet the Mett, Greet the Mett: The Titans new starting QB might be a dead ringer for a certain pro dodgeball player…
…but what he also might be is an improvement for Tennessee. Now, that’s a relative term, because Jake Locker and ‘Checkdown’ Charlie Whitehurst have been so bad that if the Bills hadn’t signed Kyle Orton so early this year he might have had a bidding war on his hands—but it’s definitely a boost for Justin Hunter’s fantasy prospects. Everyone’s favourite sleeper before the season, Hunter fell victim to his own inconsistent play combined with the weak arm of Whitehurst being simply unable to get the ball to him downfield. Mettenberger will struggle—especially facing JJ Watt in his debut, which seems unfair to the rookie—but his arm strength is not in question and he’ll chuck it as necessary…and that’s what Hunter’s skills demand.
And If Watt Wasn’t Bad Enough…: Poor Mettenberger will likely also deal with at least a partial dose of No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, who seems set to return from a torn meniscus this week.
So yeah, this is not exactly the ideal matchup for a rookie quarterback’s first start. But then it’s not like Ryan Fitzpatrick is terrifying on the other side of the ball, either. The over/under on this game is a paltry 42—the second-lowest total of the week. And we’d strongly advise you take the under but…it’s just that Watt has shown a predilection for scoring defensive touchdowns and, well, if ever there were easy pickings for what could fast become the best pass rushing combo in the NFL, this would be it.
(Helpful betting hint: The Texans still have a decent shot at the second AFC Wild Card—a win over the Titans would move them to 4-4 and, likely, put them one game out. Watt, meanwhile, is still 15-1 to win the NFL MVP award. If the Texans make the playoffs and Watt continues to play at this level, he’ll be neck and neck with Peyton Manning and DeMarco Murray, who are currently 3-2 and 7-2, respectively, for the honour. For what it’s worth, Philip Rivers is 25-1, which also seems way too low for a guy dragging his offence onto the elite plateau by the scruff of its neck.)
Must-Win Game of the Week: This is basically it for the Chicago Bears. Their defence has been ravaged by injuries, both their dominant receivers have also been nicked up and now that Brandon Marshall is healthy, he’s more than willing to express his disappointment with his quarterback. The Bears are 3-4 and off to New England for a date with the Patriots while the Packers and Lions are both 5-2 and each have winnable games against sketchy NFC South teams this week. All of this is bad news. Here’s the good news: Marshall and Jay Cutler have argued plenty of times over the years and their bond only seems to grow stronger. The Bears are getting healthier and standout rookie corner Kyle Fuller could return as early as this week. Chicago also has head-to-head games remaining against both the Lions and the Packers and is in good position, schedule-wise, to make a playoff run if they can iron out their kinks. It’s far from a lost cause for a talented bunch, but without a win in Foxboro they’ll likely be looking at being down three games to at least one divisional foe, and maybe two. That might be the end of 2014 for all intents and purposes.
Least No More: A year after having the second-worst point differential of the eight NFL divisions, the NFC East seems to have righted its ship. The Cowboys are sitting at 6-1 and are heavy favourite to get to seven wins on Monday night. The Eagles can get to 6-1 with a win over the Cardinals in what could be the game of the week. Even the Giants, sitting at 3-4 and on a bye this week, have only a -15 point differential. With the exception of Washington, which gets some slack for dealing with injuries to quarterback Robert Griffin III and a slew of important defensive players, these teams can hang with anyone. And that’s a great thing for viewers because this division gets hyped to death anyway, so at least there’s some legitimacy behind the hype this year. Plus…there are two Eagles-Cowboys games to come and the potential for Various Interesting Things in those contests will be off the charts.