With a chance to play in the Super Bowl on the line, there’s no shortage of story lines this Sunday.
The NFL’s top defence and offence collide in the NFC title game as the Seattle Seahawks host an injured Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers with their sights set on becoming the eighth team to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
The last team to accomplish that feat, the New England Patriots, welcome Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts to Foxborough in the AFC title game as Luck looks to earn his first victory against Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the rest of the gang.
To get you set for all the action, Sportsnet NFL contributors Jeff Simmons and Geoff Lowe debate the four biggest questions heading into Conference Championship weekend.
Should Green Bay attack Richard Sherman this time around?
Simmons: Absolutely. Mike McCarthy has already admitted his Week 1 game plan against Seattle was foolish. Richard Sherman is an outstanding player, but cutting off one-third of the field by ignoring the cornerback’s side is no way to beat Seattle. You have to attack him.
In this matchup, the Packers have better weapons than they did in Week 1. Instead of having Jarett Boykin line up primarily on the right side, they can move all three of their starting receivers around the field. Davante Adams has replaced Boykin in the three-receiver set and he had a monster impact last week. Green Bay shouldn’t target Sherman a ton, but it needs to be done in moderation to have any chance at succeeding.
Lowe: While I don’t think completely avoiding Sherman is the best plan – see: Week 1’s shellacking – I do think making a point of intentionally targeting the game’s best corner is just as foolish as completely ignoring an entire third of the field. Sherman fuels off being targeted; he loves it.
Instead, McCarthy should just let Aaron Rodgers do his thing. No. 12 is the best quarterback in the game, so why handcuff him either way? Rodgers will be dealing with an injury while also trying to keep tabs on the league’s top defence. That’s going to be hard enough without either avoiding or targeting Sherman. Every member of the Legion of Boom is tough to beat. Rodgers should just be focused on making plays, no matter who’s trying to stop him.
Can the Packers earn the upset with Aaron Rodgers’ injury?
Simmons: There’s no doubt this will be a daunting task for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. They haven’t been a good road team to begin with — going 4-4 in the regular season — but they have the pieces on offence to test the Seahawks. Rodgers isn’t 100 percent. His mobility will be limited, but he still has a chance to pull off the upset.
A Packers win is dependent on one thing — the play of the offensive line. Rodgers needs his protection to hold up or he has no chance. If Seattle forces Rodgers to move around the pocket, the calf injury will likely come into play. If he has time to throw — like we saw in the second half against the Cowboys — Rodgers on one healthy leg is still one hell of a player. The Seahawks have admitted as much this week.
Lowe: Do you truly think the Packers are going to be able to slow down Seattle’s defence though? No team even compares to how stout the Seahawks have been in the second half of the season. Since the team’s last loss – in Week 11 to the Chiefs – Seattle is allowing a measly 225 total yards a game and have given up more than 245 yards just once over their seven-game win streak.
Oh, and let’s not forget how mediocre Rodgers and the rest of the Packers offence were in the first half of last week’s game. Clearly reeling from the calf injury, Rodgers threw for just 90 yards, turned the ball over once and the league’s top-scoring offence had a pedestrian 145 yards and 10 points going into half. Sure, the Cowboys defence was better than everyone expected this season, but will Rodgers be able to make significant adjustments against the Seahawks like he did against Dallas? Not likely.
Can the Colts finally slow down New England’s run game?
Simmons: No doubt Chuck Pagano still has nightmares about Jonas Gray gashing the Colts for 200 yards on the ground back in November, but things could be different this time around. Don’t laugh.
The Colts have a big personnel addition since their prior matchup with the Patriots: Arthur Jones. Jones, a 330-pound nose tackle, is the Colts’ best run stuffer and the anchor on the defensive line. He is the only Colts’ lineman to command double teams. Combine that with the possibility New England is without their starting centre (Bryan Stork) and Indianapolis has a shot to bounce back.
Lowe: I just can’t ignore the thrashings Bill Belichick and the Patriots have put on the Colts in the Andrew Luck era. In the three meetings between this teams since taking Luck first overall in the 2012 draft, New England has executed its game plan to perfection, outscoring Indy 144-66. The last two times, the plan’s been simple; run the ball down their throats. And did they ever; the Pats racked up 480 yards on the ground to the Colts’ 88.
Arthur Jones is no slouch, but I’m not convinced he’ll make a difference. Since the beginning of December, a span of six games, Indy’s 18th-ranked run defence has allowed an average of 120 yards rushing a game. Last week’s upset win over Denver was the only game over that stretch in which the Colts didn’t allow at least 110 yards on the ground, and that was only because of Peyton Manning’s injury. Tom Brady is very much healthy.
Can Luck avoid costly mistakes against the Pats’ secondary?
Simmons: This is a pure gut feeling. All statistics and logic would point to New England, but I just can’t discount Andrew Luck. Yes, he’s struggled against New England in his three previous tries. Sure, Darrelle Revis is great and can shut down T.Y. Hilton but I still can’t shake my belief in Luck. There’s just something special about him. If his protection up front can hold up like they did last week in Denver, it’ll make a huge difference. There will be less forced throws down the field — usually what leads to his turnovers. This time around, he has a running game to lean on and his defence is playing much better. Maybe I’m a year or two early, but Luck is capable of pulling off the upset.
Lowe: Just three years into his NFL career, Andrew Luck has already shown how great he can and will be. But how do you go against Bill Belichick, Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner? Add in solid play from Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Kyle Arrington, and it doesn’t look good for Luck, who has struggled mightily against New England in the past.
As I mentioned above, during Luck’s tenure the Colts haven’t fared well against the Patriots. Coupled with the problems on defence, Luck has thrown eight interceptions and been held to a completion percentage below 55. Now New England is better defensively than they have been in previous meetings with Luck, whose problem with turnovers hasn’t gone away.
