No one in the NFL has thrown more passes this season than Derek Carr.
That statement taken alone is surprising and a tad difficult to unpack. If you had only this piece of information, the logical assumption would be that the Oakland Raiders are struggling and Carr has become a garbage-time maestro à la Blake Bortles.
Nothing could be further from the truth. The Raiders sit atop the AFC West at 7-2 and are well on their way to their first playoff berth since 2002. Carr isn’t slinging the football around out of necessity, he’s doing it because that’s the best way forward for the league’s fifth-ranked offence.
We tend to think of the Fresno State product as a good quarterback, but the idea of him driving such a potent offence seems far-fetched. After all, just two years ago Carr averaged a ridiculously low 5.5 yards per attempt playing an unimaginative brand of football for a 3-13 team. Last year, he took a significant step forward but remained a fair distance from the upper echelon.
This season Carr has seemingly arrived. In the past, he was a cautious passer with problems pushing the ball downfield. The most obvious way for the 25-year-old to improve would be an increase in ambition and a little more touch on the deep ball, but that’s not how he’s climbed the ladder. Instead, Carr has doubled down on what’s made him successful in the past: his efficiency.
Over the last three seasons his accuracy has gotten better and better, allowing him to complete more throws and make fewer mistakes.
| Season | Completion Percentage | Interception Percentage | TD/INT Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 58.1% | 2.0% | 1.75 |
| 2015 | 61.1% | 2.3% | 2.46 |
| 2016 | 66.1% | 0.8% | 5.67 |
Right now this is a guy who is taking care of the ball and putting it where it needs to be. Of course, there are also external factors at play.
Part of the reason Carr has been so successful avoiding turnovers is that his offensive line has kept him clean. The Raiders’ line—led by left tackle Donald Penn and bolstered by free-agent addition Kelechi Osemele—has been one of the league’s most formidable groups this season.
Through nine games, the Raiders have allowed only 11 sacks, tied for the fewest in the NFL, and 20 quarterback hits, which is seven fewer than any other team. For the most part, Carr has been able to operate without hands in his passing lanes or rushers flying around the edge looking for a strip sack. Carr is lucky to have that peace of mind, although he also creates his own luck by getting the ball out quickly.
Amari Cooper has also played a major role in his quarterback’s ascent. Last season, the talented wideout led the league in drops and brought in just 55.4 percent of passes thrown his way. This year he’s been much more reliable, upping his catch percentage to 69.5. Unsurprisingly, his yards per game have jumped from 66.9 to 93.7.
In the last four weeks, the 22-year-old has been even better catching 32 of the 41 balls thrown his way for 387 yards including a Week 8 performance at Tampa Bay where he set career highs in receptions and yardage.
The tidy narrative here is that in his third year Carr has seen enough that he “gets it” and is ready to be a franchise passer. It’s not entirely false, but it’s not the complete truth either.
From their line to their stable of running backs to their collection of receivers, the Raiders are stacked offensively. They have a group that’s growing around a very productive young quarterback in Carr. At this point, it’s a little bit unclear who is making who better, but it really doesn’t matter.
The attention will go to Carr because he’s a quarterback and that’s the way the world works. It’s not unjust as he’s clearly getting more accurate and has done a great job moving the ball. But to describe what we’re seeing as a “Derek Carr breakout” is an oversimplification. Cooper is also breaking out. A young powerful offensive line is maturing. There’s a three-headed monster in the backfield that has combined to put up the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL.
For the first time in over a decade, the Oakland Raiders are a scary team to defend. Derek Carr is some of that, but he certainly isn’t all of it.