Got a hot topic? Our NFL panel has opinions. The panel includes NFL editor Craig Battle, Sportsnet deputy editor Jordan Heath-Rawlings, staff writer Jeff Simmons, and associate editor Geoff Lowe.
1. Which team is your upset pick against the spread in Week 15?
LOWE: I’m going all-in this week: Eli Manning and the Giants will hand the Panthers their first loss of the season. Carolina is dealing with injuries to important offensive pieces including top rusher Jonathan Stewart and leading receiver Greg Olsen, while New York has some momentum coming off an important Monday night win over Miami.
Plus, I can point to the past as a reason why this will be the week the ‘72 Dolphins pop open the champagne. Before the Panthers, seven teams since 1970 have started 13-0. Five of them have lost their first game in Week 15. If that’s not definitive, I don’t know what is…
You also might remember that Tom Coughlin’s Giants have some experience playing the role of David to an undefeated team’s Goliath.
SIMMONS: Maybe it’s recency bias. Or maybe it’s a lack of confidence in the Green Bay Packers but I think the Oakland Raiders can cover the spread against the NFC North division leaders. Green Bay has struggled this year on offence when they can’t get the running game going and have to rely on a passing game that lacks weapons at receiver (it’s still crazy to type that) and struggles to win in 1-on-1 coverage. If Eddie Lacy isn’t a factor, that might play into Oakland’s advantage. The Raiders have held opponents to under 100 yards on the ground in eight of its last 11 games and held Denver to a season-low 34 in an impressive road win last week. Obviously Aaron Rodgers is a far tougher task than Brock Osweiler but given that the Packers have to travel across the country and try and slow down pass rushing dynamo Khalil Mack, this game might be closer than you think. Let’s go Oakland +3.5.
BATTLE: Denver. Broncos-Steelers is a perfect clash of styles, with the former having one of the best defences in the league and the latter having one of the best offences. But the Broncos’ pass rush will put a lot of pressure Ben Roethlisberger, and keep Pittsburgh from running up the score, meaning this one should stay closer than the current 6.5-point spread. What’s more, the Steelers don’t have either the defensive line or the secondary to exploit the lack of experience of Brock Osweiler. Look for a tight one and consider taking Denver and the points.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: I have to agree with Craig. I can’t imagine how you can look at the Denver defence and then give the Broncos nearly a full touchdown. I hope the Steelers make the playoffs, and I can see them beating the Broncos here, but let’s give some respect where it’s due. The Broncos have yet to give up 30 points this year, and have given up more than 24 just once. The Steelers offence is certainly humming right now, but so were the Patriots and Packers when they faced the Orange Crush 2.0, and they both faltered. I’m not saying Denver wins, but I’m saying that getting 6.5 points and the league’s best D is an offer to good to pass up.
JOHNSTON: The Texans are two-point underdogs against the Colts with the division on the line (more or less) but they really should be the favourites. They’ve been the better team since mid-October and I like them to win outright on the road this week even with Brian Hoyer out recovering from another concussion. J.J. Watt’s injured hand has limited him, but Indy has been outscored 96-26 the last two weeks. As long as DeAndre Hopkins sees more action than the six targets he got against the Patriots, this is the Texans’ game to lose.
2. Which underdog could you see winning outright?
LOWE: See above. (Ed. note: A bold call, to be sure.)
SIMMONS: Both teams have lost two straight, but the Chicago Bears pull off “the upset” over the Minnesota Vikings. Chicago held up pretty well in their first meeting with Minnesota earlier this season and the Bears have developed into a far better team as the season has progressed. Minnesota, on the other hand, is beaten up on defence and lacks any sort of consistent passing game. Jay Cutler makes enough big plays down the field to Alshon Jeffery to secure the victory. For the Bears’ sake, they better hope the game doesn’t come down to recently-shaker kicker Robbie Gould.
BATTLE: Detroit. Hands up if you have faith in New Orleans winning two games in a row at this stage of the season. Anybody? The Saints are hosting this battle of non-contenders and they got a win last week in Tampa, but in the four games prior to that they were beaten in four straight by the—yeesh—Titans, Redskins, Texans and Panthers. Meanwhile, Detroit had looked good in four straight (yes, I’m counting the Packers game in which the football gods stepped right onto the field mid-play and said, “No, no, no—no chance we’re letting Detroit win this game” and handed Green Bay a hail-mary win) before pulling a no-show in St. Louis last week. Judging by the total recent body of work, the Lions should not be underdogs here.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: There’s a handful of matchups between teams with nothing left to play for this weekend, and any of Detroit, Washington or Miami–each of whom has an opponent almost as woeful as themselves and those are anyone’s games. Personally I’d side with Miami over an extremely banged-up Chargers team. If the Dolphins have learned from last week–perhaps a optimistic hope, given their tendencies this year–they will recognize that Lamar Miller needs to be fed repeatedly until he slows down and should control the game on the ground.
JOHNSTON: This is the week. It might be decided by a late field goal but this is the week the Panthers lose. Without Jonathan Stewart the run game will suffer and Carolina is going to be cautious with all of their banged up players, including tight end Greg Olsen. Yes, the Panthers want to have the perfect season and, yes, they’re a much better team than the Giants, but you can’t risk post-season health simply for regular season bragging rights. The Giants also have plenty to play for. The Eli-to-Odell connection has been en fuego since Week 8 and it could be the difference. They’re up against the toughest challenge in the league, though, in the form of Josh Norman.
3. Who makes for a good off-the-radar fantasy start this week?
LOWE: Denard Robinson. The Jaguars will likely be without starting running back T.J. Yeldon, which means Robinson is likely to get most of the touches Sunday against the Falcons. Don’t forget, the former Michigan quarterback had a three-week spell of success last season during which he put up 329 rushing yards, averaged almost six yards per carry and was a sneaky-good fantasy pick-up. After an impressive 14-point outing in relief of Yeldon last week, Robinson is a solid start against a struggling Atlanta team giving up almost 24 points a week to running backs.
SIMMONS: Mike Tolbert. Any fantasy player who has owned a Carolina Panthers running back in recent years knows about the touchdown vulture at fullback, Mike Tolbert. The Panthers might give Fozzy Whitaker more of the carries between the 20s, Tolbert should get the majority of goal line carries with Jonathan Stewart expected to sit out. Tolbert is a surprisingly-solid weapon in the passing game and with Carolina facing the league’s worst defence, the Panthers should put up points in bunches in the red zone. Tolbert is cheap in daily leagues and should be on the waiver wire if you need a flex start for the playoffs.
BATTLE: Tight end Will Tye. With the Gaints hosting Carolina this weekend, there will be a lot of defensive focus on Odell Beckham Jr. on the outside, which could lead to more openings for Tye, who has been quietly effective of late. He’s averaged 58 yards and five catches over his last three and caught a TD pass last week as well. If you need a fill-in for an under-achieving TE, he’s a pretty high-floor guy with a little upside.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: Tight end Eric Ebron. It may not be as off-the-board as Will-freaking-Tye, but the Lions TE is owned in just 29 percent of Yahoo leagues, is an important part of his team’s offence going forward, is now the only healthy pass-catching TE on the Detroit roster after Brandon Pettigrew’s season-ending injury and is facing a Saints defence that gives up more fantasy points to tight ends than any other team in the league. All of that adds up to a very nice little dart to throw, especially if you’re the underdog in a playoff matchup. And hey, having another round left in the chamber going into Monday night doesn’t hurt, either.
JOHNSTON: Doug Baldwin no longer qualifies as a sleeper — not in the slightest — but his teammate Tyler Lockett does. The rookie is coming off his best game as a pro. He had 104 yards and two touchdowns last week and with Russell Wilson playing as well as anyone in the league he could have another big game. With Thomas Rawls done for the year and Marshawn Lynch still out, don’t be surprised if the Seahawks revert to a more pass-heavy attack, which means more opportunities for Lockett to make some plays.