They say defence wins championships. We’re not totally sure who they are, but we’re certain the Jacksonville Jaguars are preparing to prove ‘em all right this Sunday when they take on the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship.
Much is being made of the Tom Coughlin factor here — as there should be. Coughlin defeated the Patriots in the Super Bowl twice as head coach of the New York Giants, and he could beat his old rival again, this time as executive VP of the Jaguars who, by the way, have a much stronger defence than his New York crews of 2008 and 2012.
But if we’re looking at Xs and Os, it’s simple: we’ve got the league’s top offence versus its most dynamic defence, with a ticket to Super Bowl LII on the line.
We. Can’t. Wait.
Here are three things we’re looking at ahead of Sunday’s 3:05 p.m. ET kickoff.
Brady’s right hand, man
The Patriots threw the football world into a bit of a tizzy on Thursday when Tom Brady did not practise due to an injury to his right hand.
It’s unclear what exactly happened (word is, he collided with a teammate on Wednesday) or how serious it is. Alarms sounded among Patriots fans when he was seen wearing a glove on his throwing hand (something he is known never to do) while present at — but not participating in — practice.
Brady stirred the speculation at Friday’s press conference, when he took to the podium equipped with two gloves and a solid plan to be as elusive as possible about his health.
Brady’s MVP-calibre season hasn’t been injury-free. His name has been listed on the weekly injury report a number of times in 2017, with ailments including his Achilles and left (non-throwing) shoulder, though the 40-year-old has not missed a start since 2008. He has also never missed a playoff start.
Bill Belichick, meanwhile, also shed as little light on the injury as possible on Friday (as only Belichick can).
We know what a healthy Brady is capable of, especially when it comes to the post-season. The five-time Super Bowl champ has a healthy stable of receivers and dissected the Titans’ defence with ease last week. But a potential injury could up the ante against the league’s best passing defence.
While he’s never one to crumble under mounting pressure, you know Jacksonville is going to throw plenty of it his way, which will have Patriots Nation holding its breath with every blitz. “Sacksonville” has consistently had one of the NFL’s most dangerous front four this season, led by Calais Campbell and his 14.5 sacks.
Gronk vs. Jaguars’ secondary
Let’s talk a bit more about that Jacksonville defence. The No. 1 squad against the pass (No. 2 overall in total defence) will be put to the test against the Patriots’ diverse attack, and Rob Gronkowski will no doubt be its biggest challenge.
The Jaguars have had the fourth-most success covering tight ends this season, allowing 616 total yards at that position. But Gronk… is not your average TE.
While we’re not the only ones drooling over the prospect of a Jalen Ramsey-Gronk head-to-head matchup, it sounds like we might not see it.
Cornerbacks Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are typically assigned to deep threats at wide receiver (sorry, Kevin Hogan and Brandin Cooks), so it’s safe to assume the bulk of Gronk’s coverage could wind up being a team affair from speedy linebackers Myles Jack and Telvin Smith up the middle to safety Tashaun Gipson, depending on where the tight end lines up.
The dream continues.@MylesJack gets the INT!#JAXvsPIT #DTWD pic.twitter.com/6YsmtMmlf5
— z-#Sacksonville (@Jaguars) January 14, 2018
“You can’t stop a guy like that,” Jack said Wednesday, via Jacksonville.com. “But for the most part, I feel like we have the guys who can match up with him and give him a challenge and try and make sure Brady has to throw a difficult pass and [Gronkowski] has to make a difficult catch.”
Run game should run the show
Quarterback Blake Bortles played just well enough to help Jacksonville defeat the Steelers last weekend, throwing for 214 yards and a touchdown while avoiding danger in the form of interceptions and sacks. But while Bortles can help not lose the game, it’s running back Leonard Fournette — he of 109 yards and three touchdowns against Pittsburgh — who has the potential to win this one as he leads the NFL’s top run game into New England. He’ll be up against a Patriots defence that greatly improved over the second half of the season but still ranks 20th against the run (and 29th overall) while allowing an average of 114.8 ground yards per game.
We shouldn’t forget the impact fellow RB T.J. Yeldon can have here, too. He registered 20 rushing yards and a touchdown last weekend, was a solid play-action option for Bortles, and also laid down an impressive block on third down that had his scrambling QB smiling.
Blake Bortles has the same reaction we all did when he saw T.J. Yeldon spring him with a huge block on Sunday.
: @Jaguars pic.twitter.com/eUfC3JnEgN
— Big Cat Country (@BigCatCountry) January 16, 2018
The one area in which Jacksonville has struggled on defence, however, is against the run — the Jaguars rank 21st in run defence, just behind their Sunday opponent. The Patriots’ diverse, run-by-committee setup headlined by Rex Burkhead, James White and Dion Lewis is ranked 10th in the NFL, and could prove problematic for Jacksonville here.
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