It may be the unlikeliest NFC Championship matchup we’ve ever seen: Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles host Case Keenum and the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday for a place in the Super Bowl.
Foles and Keenum are now a part of history as the first quarterbacks to face off in a conference final after neither started Week 1, according to NFL Research.
And it isn’t just history that links this pair of improbable title-game starters. Their NFL journeys have been interconnected since their days with the Rams in 2015.
But while the fascinating underdog stories of this game’s quarterbacks are catching the attention of many, it will be a showdown between two of the league’s best defences that steals the show on Sunday.
With that in mind, let’s dive into three key things to watch for in the NFC title game.
The Battle in the Trenches
It’s a football cliché, but the NFC Championship will be decided in the trenches.
Even without nine-time Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters (who suffered a season-ending knee injury in October), the Eagles have one of the NFL’s better offensive lines, a unit that includes two All-Pros in centre Jason Kelce and right tackle Lane Johnson. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s revamped offensive line made drastic improvements from a group that struggled mightily last season, most notably with the additions of tackles Mike Remmers and Riley Reiff.
But it’s the defensive fronts of the Vikings and Eagles that boast the top talent in this game.
Led by All-Pro tackle Fletcher Cox and the criminally under-appreciated Brandon Graham, the Philadelphia defensive line is one of the deepest in the NFL. Jim Schwartz can cycle in as many as nine different talented players to attack Keenum and an offensive line that came under attack in the second half against the Saints last week.
In Minnesota, defensive end Everson Griffen — a second-team All-Pro this season — leads the way. The eight-year pro is an absolute nightmare for opposing offences and has a chance to exploit the Eagles’ weakest link in the offensive line: backup left tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai.
Teamed with run-stuffing nose tackle Linval Joseph, tackle Tom Johnson, fellow defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Brian Robison, and linebackers Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks (both of whom play crucial roles along the line of scrimmage), the Vikings’ versatility on the defensive front will give the Eagles offensive line the stiffest test of its season.
Foles and the run-pass option
With Nick Foles under centre rather than Carson Wentz, the Eagles’ run game is vital to executing an effective offensive game plan on Sunday.
Philadelphia ran the ball successfully in Saturday’s win over the Falcons — 32 carries for 96 yards and the Eagles’ only TD — but yards on the ground will likely come harder for Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount against the Vikings’ No. 2–ranked rush defence, which allowed just 83.6 yards per game in the regular season and held the Saints’ duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to just 68 yards on the ground last week.
But a commitment to the run game is necessary for Philadelphia for two reasons: 1) So the Eagles offence can control the clock while keeping the ball out of Keenum’s hands, and 2) Establishing the run-pass option (RPO) for Foles.
When Philadelphia’s offence was at its best last week against Atlanta, late in the third quarter and into the fourth, Foles was in rhythm with the run-pass option.
Shot 2 – Two things about the #Eagles run game stood out. (1) Nick Foles was excellent on RPOs on Saturday, knowing when to throw and when to hand it off. (2) There was a ton of variety. Wham, Inside/Outside Zone, Pin/Pull, Draw, Power, etc. Great game plan from coaches pic.twitter.com/YC4JcNZ7vz
— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) January 16, 2018
If the Eagles are unable to establish any sort of a threat on the ground, Foles will likely struggle to establish a rhythm through the air, especially against a Vikings secondary chock full of all-pros.
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The NFL’s most dangerous duo
Keenum’s startling success with the Vikings has been fuelled by his rapport with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, who have emerged as the NFL’s best receiving duo with a combined 2,125 yards and 12 TDs in the regular season.
And while Minnesota’s offence stumbled a bit in the second half of last weekend’s win over the New Orleans Saints, both Diggs (137 yards, 1 TD) and Thielen (74 yards) shone. The latter had a crucial circus catch on the Vikings’ second-last drive and, of course, the former made headlines with what has now been dubbed the “Minneapolis Miracle.”
A radio call to remember!
"It's a #MinneapolisMiracle!"
@nflnetwork | @PAOnTheMic pic.twitter.com/YRNej2luz7
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) January 15, 2018
The Eagles’ pass defence, meanwhile, ranked 17th in passing yards allowed in 2017, giving up more than 227 per game.
But a lot of those yards came in the first half of the season. Since Week 8, the Eagles have given up more than 200 yards passing just twice and are surrendering an average of 192.2 per game.
Now, after holding Matt Ryan in check, “limiting” Julio Jones to 101 yards and the rest of the Falcons’ receivers to just 102, the Eagles’ secondary welcomes the NFL’s best pass-catching 1-2 punch with a berth in the Super Bowl on the line.
Sleeper matchup: Forbath vs. Elliott
Kai Forbath and Jake Elliott have had decent seasons on the NFC’s top two teams, but both are wild-cards when it comes to extra points — a factor that will have fans of both teams sweating on Sunday.
