So we all know that Tiger’s knee is going to explode like a piñata as soon as he takes his first swipe out of the rough at Torrey Pines, and that Phil’s head will do the same thing when he looks like he has a chance to win. (Witness his four runner-up finishes.)

So just who will win the U.S. Open this week?

Much as I would like it to be Stephen Ames, it won’t be. His already fine ball-striking has improved under the tutelage of Sean Foley of Burlington, Ont., but his lightning already struck in 2006 when he won the Players Championship.

Stewart Cink is a good pick. Six top 10s so far this year, including a T3 at the Masters, and a loss to Tiger in the final of the World Match Play. Has the length, accuracy and solid putting required to win this, not to mention the mental toughness, which I think is more vital.

How about 22-year-old Anthony Kim? A win at Wachovia was one of his three top-10 finishes this season, and the little twerp tied for 20th at the Open at Oakmont last year. He’s seventh in driving distance and 10th in putting on Tour so far this year.

A couple of Brits, Justin Rose and Paul Casey, would be worth considering. Rose isn’t long, but he’s accurate, and just came off a T2 at the Memorial. He was joint 10th at Oakmont. Casey hits it a mile, tied for 11th at the Masters this year, and tied with Rose at Oakmont.

The perennially overrated Luke Donald doesn’t stand a chance.

Seeing that the last four Opens have been won by players from the Southern Hemisphere (Goosen, Campbell, Ogilvy, Cabrera), let’s see who the fifth might be.

Won’t be world No. 3 Adam Scott, who’s paired with Tiger and Phil for the first two rounds. He won this year’s Byron Nelson, but has never played well at the U.S. Open.

Won’t be Els or Goosen. These former Open champions have lost their form and will most likely never regain it, unfortunately.

Could be Aaron Baddeley. Remember he led by two shots after 54 holes at Oakmont? He leads the Tour in putting.

Nope, it says here that Ogilvy will win his second U.S. Open title in three years.

Even though you can argue that the faux pas of Phil and Monty at Winged Foot in 2006 handed the Aussie his first major, he played well enough to be in position to accept the gift.

Want a dark horse? How about Pat Perez, the volatile wingnut who says he’s played Torrey Pines a thousand times. We assume he’s not counting the Golden Tee version, but with Perez, you never know.