Jim Kelley says the question isn't whether the Leafs should deal Mats Sundin but who should make the deal.
Things are a little chaotic in the Centre of the Hockey Universe, so let's make this crystal clear: the question isn't whether or not the Leafs should move Mats Sundin but rather who should do it, when and for what?
OK, we'll backtrack a bit for those who spend too much time at the wine bar, whine bar or sushi bar at the Air Canada Centre. The Leafs must trade their captain and, arguably, their best player simply because he will bring something in return, he's a diminishing asset and re-signing him (assuming he would even agree to that) is a poor investment in the present and a flat-out mistake for the future.
The man will turn 37-years-old before the Feb. 26 trade deadline and his best and most productive years are behind him. To put it in a framework that the Ontario Teachers' Pension group would understand, he is a diminishing return on their investment and the time to sell is now. Playoff chance or no playoff chance the time to do it is at or near the deadline when the return will never be better.
If the goal is to make the Leafs better, then Sundin has to be used as a chip that will bring more talent to the organization. Making the playoffs and likely being swept in the first round -- especially if the Leafs draw Ottawa, their most likely opponent -- doesn't do that. Got that?
OK, now that we have that question settled, who should do it? That's a little more complicated. Ideally, it should be general manager John Ferguson. He is, the last time I looked, the general manager and that's his job and there isn't anybody in Leafs World (they eclipsed favoured 'Nation' status with their last profit and loss sheet) who is more knowledgeable about what Sundin's value is, what the market is for a player of his age and talent and what the Leafs need in return.
That being said, this is the Leafs so naturally logic doesn't rule, nor does common sense apply.
The corporate spin is since Ferguson is on the last year of his contract, he's a lame-duck general manager and he might make a poor deal, one that sends Sundin to somewhere in return for the kind of immediate fix that might get the Leafs into the playoffs or he keeps Sundin in the fold for the same reason.
The spin-off from that spin is that Ferguson might do that just to get a contract extension and that would be short-sighted.
That's crap.
Ferguson has made his share of mistakes but on character alone, Ferguson's the one man in the organization who likely would do what's best for the organization just on principle. To turn the matter over to Richard Peddie, Ferguson's boss and the man who declared that hiring Ferguson was "a mistake" would likely be the biggest mistake. Peddie's done a poor job running the Leafs and has more self-interest in trying to fix it than anyone at the ACC short of Larry Tannenbaum (Peddie's boss). This, after all, is the man who led the failed search for a "mentor" for Ferguson and the man who has presided over most of the errors the Leafs have made as an organization.
Having Peddie present trade scenarios to the Board of Directors is like having Osama bin Ladin presenting a blueprint for security at a nuclear power plant.
If the board has shown anything during its time running the Leafs it's that it is fractured, rife with infighting and has no clue in regards how to build a bird house let alone a winning hockey team.
Besides, trading Sundin isn't just about making a deal, it's about handling a player in a way that's a win for the organization and a win for a player who has given good service to the franchise and deserves not to be embarrassed, demeaned or humiliated, something the board could do without even trying. Ferguson knows these things. He knows Sundin, the market, Sundin's value in the market and how the player would like the matter to be handled.
Sundin has been careful to say he's a Leaf and wants to be a Leaf forever and everyone needs to say that there's nothing going on right now, but that's mostly good PR.
Behind the scenes, the script would read something along the lines of Sundin professing he doesn't want to leave, but waives his no-trade clause for the good of the future of the team. He then picks the best offer he can or will agree to and then professes to say that though he's leaving he'll always be Maple Leaf, will come back as a free agent if the opportunity presents itself and, in any event, intends to always carry the Maple Leaf close to his heart and will likely come back to Toronto to raise his children. It's all blah, blah, blah, but with a ring of truth if that turns out to be the best-case scenario for Sundin.
If not, well, the fans eat it up and if he does stay away it can always be made to look like some deep-pocketed owner made him a foolish offer that he couldn't refuse. Fans accept that and sometimes it actually works out that way.
Ferguson knows this, the people above him … heck … they think Tie Domi can run the show. Regards the question of when, well, who better than Ferguson to know that answer as well.
Offers come in stages; first there are hints of interest, then there are absurdly weak or inane offers followed by some serious interest and then, if market conditions have been set properly, desperation. This is not a case of trading Class A stock for Class B, it's about knowing how to dance and, especially, knowing when to take the lead or walk away. I'm not going to claim Ferguson is an instructor in these types of deals but he should have at least learned enough from his mistakes to get a deal better than the guys who usually lead with their best foot in their mouth.
The best bet is to be firm and to make it crystal clear that if a team's best offer isn't on the table just days before the deadline that the opponent trying for that must-have playoff spot will have his on there. That's what the St. Louis Blues did in trading Keith Tkachuk to Atlanta late last season. That's what the Flyers did with Peter Forsberg and Nashville bit hard. Atlanta needed to make the playoffs or it would be general manager Don Waddell's job. Waddell paid the price. Nashville needed to make a deep run into the playoffs in order to make enough money to keep ownership interested in keeping the team. The ploy failed, but it wasn't because the Predators didn't try and general manager David Poile offered up the best package.
You need a man who understands the market to make a deal like that. It's not like building a condominium or fielding a minor-league soccer team. It's conceivable Peddie or the board might know exactly what the Leafs need (especially if Ferguson told them) but it's an altogether different thing to make it happen. Now there are rumours that Sundin doesn't like or respect Ferguson and if that's true, it complicates things, but it's a given that Sundin realizes staying in Toronto is not the best idea. Remaining a Leaf does precious little for him this season and it makes no sense for management, whomever that might be, to extend his contract now when they can get something for him. Then should he be so inclined, re-sign him as a free agent in the off-season after the team has improved itself with either players, prospects or draft picks.
No matter what Ferguson's future, Sundin, by virtue of playing a role in what the Leafs get for him and having a say where he ends up, has control over his destiny.
The Blues got two first-round picks , one each in the second and third and a mid-level player for Tkachuk who got the Thrashers into the playoffs, watched them lose in the first round and then re-signed with a better St. Louis team then the one he left. The Flyers got two good prospects -- Ryan Parent and Scott Upshall and Nashville's first- and third-round picks in the 2007 entry draft and could still get Forsberg back should he opt to return to hockey as a free agent at some point this season. All that and with or without Forsberg they are a better team than the one he left. Those are good hockey deals, the kind good hockey men make.
Is there anyone in Leafs' management save Ferguson who would even begin to understand, let alone execute deals like that? I rest my case and it's on Ferguson.
