Given their injuries and their position in the standings it appears this week marks the beginning of the end for playoff hockey in Edmonton.
Given their injuries and their position in the standings it appears this week marks the beginning of the end regarding any chance the Edmonton Oilers have of making the playoffs this spring.
The team that is about to welcome new ownership while also saying goodbye, due to season-ending shoulder surgery, to scoring standout Shawn Horcoff. On the heels of that bad news comes the revelation that standout defenceman Sheldon Souray's shoulder is also facing the knife and he likely will be gone for as long, if not longer, than Horcoff.
That's not a particularly hopeful position given that Raffi Torres had knee surgery last month, Ales Hemsky is thought to be on the limp, a host of veterans and young players have had an assortment of long-term hurts and the goaltending tandem of Dwayne Roloson and Mathieu Garon has been somewhere between struggling (Roloson) and inexperienced (Garon).
The often deadly combination of bad luck and poor play have left the Oilers sitting in the unlucky 13th spot in the Western Conference as of Wednesday night's games, six points out of the eighth and final playoff spot. Now that's not insurmountable; and most of us in media have learned not to count the Oilers out in a stretch drive, but given the hurts and the number of teams they would have to climb over their task does seem to approach the impossible dream.
The problem for the Oilers is that the end doesn't end there. Missing the playoffs only brings a new set of problems.
You see this coming offseason is when the Oilers start paying off the Ducks of Anaheim for signing then free-agent forward Dustin Penner. The Ducks get a first, second and third round pick for the player that Oilers' GM signed via a free-agent offer sheet that the Ducks refused to match. If the standings were the same on draft day as they are today, that first would be a good one, but just outside the lottery pool. Should the Oilers slide into the bottom five, the pick could be as high as No. 1 overall.
Cleary that's not what Lowe had in mind when he signed Penner to a five-year, $21.25 million deal and Souray to a five-year, $27 million deal. No one knew if Penner would measure up to that contract in the short term (he hasn't yet but the promise is there) and no one can predict injury (although Souray has a history with his shoulder before he hit the market).
What's happening to the Oilers isn't bad management, it's mostly bad luck, but it does illustrate the risks that come with signing young players to contracts based largely on what they are projected to do and the way injuries can rip apart a team.
The Oilers are defensive regarding injuries in part because they've had so many in recent seasons that people have come to question their training methods.
I don't. The Oilers play an attacking style of game and they are aggressive. It's true they've been among the smaller teams in recent seasons, but they certainly don't play that way and their injuries, mostly knees and shoulders, are a clear indication of that.
Their problem is more along the lines of a team that has to try harder. They don't have the talent or the depth of say the Detroit Red Wings. They don't have the kind of goaltending that covers every player's mistakes and when you have a mostly young team you're going to have a lot of them. They don't play that smothering defensive style that would bore to tears a fan base that still clings to the memory of the championship era when skating and scoring seemingly at will was the hallmark not just for the franchise, but the city itself.
All of this makes things difficult for Lowe, but fascinating for those who look at the Oilers without a rooting interest.
Will he accept his apparent fate and allow his team to go slowly into its goodnight, much the way he did last season, or will he become a buyer at the trade deadline like he did two seasons ago when the moves made paid off with a stunning run to the Stanley Cup final?
Will he make changes based on improvements for the long haul or will he cut deals in hopes of at best grabbing the last playoff spot or at worst, avoiding handing over a lottery pick to Ducks General Manager Brian Burke?
Burke has openly and consistently chastised Lowe for signing Penner, going so far as to liken him to an idiot for doing so. Lowe could be seen as a man who as Burke said "is afraid of losing his job" if he makes desperation moves down the stretch, moves that could put him in a bad light with the new ownership about to take over the team.
It's a dicey situation and it will be interesting to see how it plays out but while you're watching keep this in mind: as both a player and a general manger, Lowe has shown himself to be smart, intense, and a man of character.
Despite Burke's characterizations, those are the qualities of a winner. Bet on him doing what's best for the Oilers and nobody else.
