Someone upstairs certainly has a sense of humour.
Why else would the Pittsburgh Penguins - the team I boldly predicted would miss the playoffs - face the Ottawa Senators in the first round of the post-season?
Apparently, the Hockey Gods like a good laugh. They thought putting two teams in Florida was funny. But to them, this must be hysterical.
They are rubbing it in my face.
I was wrong. But can we please move on?
Now I'm not going to make any predictions in this space, because my track record as a prognosticator speaks for itself. (Didn't I say the Thrashers would win the Stanley Cup last year?)
But I can't shake the feeling that nobody is giving the Ottawa Senators a chance. Even here in the nation's capital, we are treating playoff fever like it's the avian bird flu. Nobody seems to want to embrace it.
Driving around this city, I have yet to see a single person with a Senators car flag. I'm actually thinking of starting up a white flag business for vehicles, since everyone in this town seems to be in surrender mode.
That speaks volumes about the fragile confidence level in this city. So to give you a little bit of hope, here are four reasons why the Senators might actually win this series.
1. Heatley And Spezza: Every analyst in the next three days will be saying, "The key for Ottawa will be to shut down Crosby and Malkin. And given the way they've played defensively, that's not going to happen." That sentiment is true enough, but why is nobody giving any respect to Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza? How will the Penguins stop them? These two finished tied for the playoff scoring lead last season and combined for 182 points this season - just two fewer than Malkin and Crosby.
2. Goaltending Is More Even Than You Think: Marc-Andre Fleury and Martin Gerber both made significant equipment changes this year. Fleury got rid of the bright yellow pads, while Gerber has opted for a jet-black mask. And there's one more similarity: They have nearly identical career playoff statistics. One win each, similar goals against averages and save percentages under .900. I concede that Fleury was the better goalie during the regular season, but under the playoff microscope, neither goalie has flourished.
3. The 2-7 Matchup Is Ideal For Upsets: The #7 seed has won six of the last nine meetings with the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference. And the last three times that Ottawa has been involved in a 2-7 matchup, the underdog has won. (#7 Ottawa over #2 Philadelphia in 2002; #7 Toronto over #2 Ottawa in 2001; #7 Buffalo over #2 Ottawa in 1999).
4. Pennsylvania Power: Oh sure they've never won a playoff series within Ontario, but conversely, the Senators have never lost a series to team from Pennsylvania. 2-0 against the Flyers and 1-0 against the Penguins. And that really seems like something you can hang your hat on, doesn't it?
* Disclaimer: None of the above information is intended to be held against the writer as a legitimate prediction. Also, if trying to be optimistic about the Senators chances, please ignore the fact that Daniel Alfredsson, Mike Fisher and Chris Kelly will likely not be available to play in this series and that Ottawa gave up more goals than any other team to qualify for the 2008 post-season.

Don't worry.. Sens Army will turn it on. The past 4 months the sens have been playing games with the NHL. Lulling the opposing teams into a false since of security only to be blown away in the playoffs.
Sens Army will paint Ottawa red (even if I have to buy all the paint)
oh thats so cute...senator fans are starting to sound like leaf fans
Sens Army will paint Ottawa red? lol...more like Sens Army will go red in the face.
Alfie likely gone for the month, Fisher [the only Sen other than Neil I like] likely not to play and Kelly, who is useless anyways, all gone..not to mention no goaltending.
Malkin might as well wear Gerber's darth vader mask and claim to be Heatley's father.
How many playoff games has Gerber played compared to Fleury? Comparing goaltending in this series is a waste of time--both will be hung out to dry like Greg Anderson (the Barry Bonds steroid guy because I know you don't get it). 40 goals could EASILY be scored in this series.
... You are always looking around and into the past for examples and models and events of things that have happened to show they can happen again, or how history will repeat itself. And you're always wrong.
Take a look at the Sens RIGHT NOW - and not last year, or past playoff series between Pitt-Islanders, L.A.-Edmonton, Edmonton-Detroit. RIGHT NOW this team (and large parts of the city) is getting ready to say bye to Redden, Emery, Gerber and McGratton, find a new goalie, tracking possible coaches and looking at our draft standing. This is a team that has no cohesion, takes brutal penalties, the PK has taken a massive hit with the injuries and we are playing a team that will be possesed. Our run last year had nothing to do with history, luck or chance, it was everything to do with a team that found it's game and played it better then 28 other teams in the NHL.
Mendes, only 1 thing you need to look at on this team, and not into the past while you daydream your work days away. WE HAVE MARTIN GERBER IN NET, This team has only 2 advantages right now, and that is our coach and we don't have any pressure.
A dejected Tuna99 has spoken... but i do think we can win a couple of games, especially game 3 or 4 when Emery starts.
Well, the Sens seem to always overachieve as the underdog and underachieve as the favorite. Maybe they'll have to use that to find the confidence they're missing.
Maybe the hockey gods are playing games with Sens fans. I almost feel sorry for them. But then I remember we're watching baseball here in Vancouver so I don't feel to bad for them.
One thing that is surprising - the Sens are actually bigger, tougher, and grittier than the Pens by a mile. Playoff experience maybe? I can remember last year in the series when Spezza was pushing around Roberts!!! Nuff said!
Murray's changes may have lost some scoring and a bit of defensive poise, but they do look more like a typical big western team. Softie Schaefer replaced by big Donovan - Uh oh Corvo becomes Commodore. Underachieving Eaves became playoff warrior Stillman. The Sens have some heart finally. Maybe that'll help them.
Or maybe it won't matter if the Penguins score 6 goals a game.
One thing's for sure - if the Pens don't win the Cup this year, they probably never will. They gave up a lot to get Hossa, and there's plenty of other kids on that team that are coming due for big pay raises. It's now or never in Pittsburgh.
I would hate to be in the Penguins front office if they lost in the 1st or 2nd round.
I support Ottawa with decoration mostly in my work office and from home. But I tend not to have a flag on my car, cause of two thing, I cant attach since I have a window plastic protector that is in the way and second, I would be afraid if someoned either steal it or vandalize it.
Living in Ottawa, I know why a lot of fans are having a hard time being optimistic about this year's playoffs. Most of them should be obvious.
1)Alfie, Fisher and Kelly being out for at least the first round. Add to that that Stillman is still not 100%. That's a huge hit to both the PK and the Powerplay, which beyond goaltending, typically dictates the series.
2)Ottawa is the worst defensive team left in this year's playoffs. I can't believe that this happened considering how good they were defensively last year. You won't win in the playoffs if you let in an average of 4 goals a game.
3)Even though they were the second highest scoring team, the above mentioned injuries are going to make it a lot harder to put the puck in the net, hopefully Vermette can continue to be hot and Spezza and Heatly will actually move their feet in the offensive zone. They're going to have to rely on dirty goals, which this team doesn't usually do. Maybe if Redden will learn to hit the net from the point they'll have a better chance.
4) They have absolutely no momentum going into the playoffs. They finished the season 3-6-1, which was the worst record for the Eastern playoff teams down the stretch. Hopefully Pittsburg lost some of its momentum after their final game's poor performance.
5) Goaltending is an obvious problem. That being said, I think both Gerber and Emery are capable of hot streaks but they are also just as capable of cold streaks. Mind you, the same can be said about Fleury, and this above all else will probably determine the winner in round 1.
Now all that negative stuff being said, this is the playoffs and nothing that happened over the last few months matters anymore. You can't take away the fact that the Sens are now an experienced playoff team that knows what will need to be done. Despite their injuries they still have a lot of talent left. Spezza and Heatly can single handedly win games when they are hot. If the Sens are going to be able to pull it off, they are going to have to grind it out, winning 1 goal games, playing as physical as they ever have and pick up garbage goals at every oppotunity.
They aren't expected to have a chance, but neither have a lot of teams who've made it deep in the past. If a city can't get excited for the playoffs, there's something wrong. We're underdogs this year, which is even more reason for the fans to get behind the team. I've got my tickets to the home games, and I don't care if I'm by myself, I'll be sreaming my face off until the final buzzer.
Let's go boys, show some heart and get it done! Go Sens Go!
Someone get Tuna99 a toll-free helpline number. Get in off the ledge, dude.
Ottawa flourishes in the role of underdog. The pressure on Pittsburgh will be huge. They are supposed to be the overwhelming favourite to come out of the East and will definitely be looking past Ottawa, regardless of what they say in the media. They're circling the third round against Montreal already.
Mendes, thanks for the 4 mediocre reasons why we could win this series. I'm on board!
By Thursday this week I guarantee you'll see a lot more car flags Ian. We will win this series only because the Pens aren't as good as they seem. I'd even go as far as predicting a sweep for the Sens. That's right, cue the laugh track but we'll see who's laughing two weeks from now! We will be!
Go Sens GO!!!!!
Senators in 5. Yes, that's FIVE.
Here's why:
-Senators have more mangames of experience.
-Senators have better goaltending.
-Pittsburgh is SOFT, PILLOW SOFT.
-Pittsburgh's big guys (Malkin, Crosby) are going to WILT under playoff pressure and physical punishment.
-They got Marian Hossa for a playoff run? The guys is a HUGE choker.
The Sens should send a bunch of thank you notes to Penguins management for giving their core an excuse to survive.
I would be shocked if Pittsburgh won this series...
Oh!
Alfredsson WILL be back for game 2 or 3 and we'll see him treated as the resurrection.
Book it!
Ian, I purhcased two SENS flags last year when I came in from TO. Game 4 against Buffalo, not only did my flag get stolen but so did my car! I had a rental for game 4 against Anaheim and had my flag broken form the window (at least they didn't steal my ride). So either SENS Flags have some kind of Charma or I need to avoid game 4 situatuons! Either case- there will be a first round upset and SENS over PENS works just fine! GSG!
Fellow Sens Fans
Future just CANT be predicted so lets have faith in our team and support them.
As for the flags and everything, I live in the "Leafs Nation" and My car has 3 Sens Flags and a hell lota other sens stuff on it, it has been there all season long and will remain there for the playoffs!
Go Sens Go!!!
Ottawa gone in 5...
The long and the short of it...I have been a Sens fan since the summer/fall of 1989, when Bruce Firestone went public with his desire/intention of bringing an NHL team back to Ottawa. Since that time I have moved to Central Ontario (actually only an hour north of Toronto...yuck). So I have been a fan for 19+ years (those first three years of waiting for the team were agonizing), The Senators have given us fans pleanty of highs and just as many low/s, I think that as the 2008 playoffs begin the concensus is that we are at a low and expecting nothing from our team, I am still flying my car flags with pride (think I'm the only one this year) as should all of you who claim to be fans, true fans don't run and hide when things are going bad, just look at the Leaf's ( yes I hate that stinkin team)despite having missed the playoffs three years in a row, they're fans have not forsaken them and we should not either. Anything can happen in the playoffs...Good luck Sens I will be watching evey game and flying my flags proud till the very end.
I will agree with the point that Pittsburgh probably isn't as good as they seem, and this is a series that will come down to goaltending and defence. If you look at the lineups, the big matchup will be who performs better between Crosby and Malkin, and Heatley and Spezza. The team that gets the best of that will win.
I agree with Mendes. Aside from a few posters here, the support in this city is pretty weak. If people don't (as my friend would say) 'nut up', the Sens don't deserve to win.
Mendes,
Good try, but the Sens only can look forward to hitting the golf course in about a week and a half. Can Alfie play hockey with his injury? The Pens don't overlook any opponent, and with questionable goaltending in Ottawa, Fleury's lack of experience won't even matter. Malkin and Crosby will be dominating the scorecard. Look for Sykora to average a goal a game against you guys. Pens will take the series on home ice for Game 5.
Lets go Pens!
Oh Ian, your life should be a sitcom.
I am getting sick and tired of being told that "Senators fans" are doing this that and the other like we are some homogenous mass with only one thought. There are plenty of us that are looking forward to the playoffs and are thrilled that we are meeting the Penguins. Why? Because we have their number - Sid the Kid gets to wear Chris Phillips like a wet T-shirt, Malkin is too busy watching out for runaway trains to do much, our arch nemesis Gary Roberts is nothing like the player he was for the Leafs, and we, more than any other team, know how quickly Hossa disappears once the post-season starts.
And get of Darth Gerber's case for pity's sake! The Sens organization has messed him about for two season's now, but he is our undisputed number one and I couldn't be happier. There is no point in looking over his playoff history as he barely has one - he was sick for the first round when he was in Carolina and never got back in. This is his time to shine, and I truly believe that he is up to the challenge now that he (finally!) has the backing of his team - he outplayed Brodeur in the Olympics, don't forget.
So, as long as everyone does their job, this should be one heck of a series.
Go Sens!!!
I live in the Nation's Capital and I'm a Wings/Sens fan. I can do this since I grew up watching Yzerman play AND both teams are in different Conferences and only play 2 out of 3 years.
What I find amazing is that no one here picks up on the positive. Maybe that has to do with having 10 point years or so many Leaf losses....I don't know. Here's a neat stat:
Ottawa is 3-5 in shoutouts.
The Pens are 7-4 in shoutouts.
Take away the shootout wins and the Sens are 40-31-11 and the Pens are 40-27-15. (I always look at shootout wins and losses since Detroit sucks at shootouts....we lost the President's trophy last year on shootouts).
So, these teams have the same number of wins....pretty much a wash. Would you really consider the Sens an underdog? Yeah, they weren't so hot after beating Detroit...but it's all about timing. Maybe the guys were saving it for the playoffs.
And the Goals for and Against, you can't really count them. When the Sens score 7 goals and win at home, everyone gets a slice of pizza. I know in house-league, when I guarantee our goalie 7 goals, he'll let in 6....as long as we win the beer tastes just as good, right? I truly believe that the Sens players score so many goals for us (the Fans in attendance). Who cares if the team lets in six, the pizza tastes just as good. Thanks guys.
Thanks for the laugh
You can't be serious
Your collapse has been epic
You are lucky you are not making tee times
They should consider it a moral victory if the can stretch this to 5 games ]Emery will forget to show up @ games/practice
Your coach is a joke
Senators=Stunned
No Alfie?
Your team has not had to win missing one of its best players we have done that the whole season
No shot
You are a little over a week from playing golf
Enjoy
Senators = Jokes
Bryan Murray = Joke
Senators Fans = Jokes
Murray's comments that Pittsburgh threw the final game this season = BIG Joke
The tables have turned this year. Neither Gerber nor Emery (obviously not the latter) have what it takes to keep the Sens in the playoffs, and the regular season games between the Pens and Sens this year took place when the Pens weren't playing as good of defense as they have been lately. The Pens penalty kill is much better at home, so now home ice definitely comes into play. What experience for the Pens that wasn't there last year now is, and the physical presence and readiness to do battle is as well. Possibly at the beginning of the season, but the Pens are by no means soft.
A team that has lost always has the advantage, because they come back for revenge. But no one knows 'til it happens, so let's watch and see...
You say that Heatley, and Spezza only had two less points than malkin and crosby but if crosby hadn't gotten hurt and he scored at the same pace him and malkin would have over 40 more points
Anonymous: You forget that Spezza and Heatley have both missed some time this season to injury as well.
Nonis is in trouble, players are not allowed to express their feelings or insight in the negative in the league now see "Block and Bridge". What Linden did ( in the game) appeared to be a surprise to Nonis, this shows a lack of communication. What good free agents will want to sign with the Canucks with Alain as coach? Defence first, benching of veterans, constant line juggling, belittling of achievements (ie: Cowan showing he can score and then being benched after the first game he doesn't). Personal points for a player gets bigger contracts. Nonis missed the "new" NHL, many teams build for the following year at the trade deadline, it's not trading away the future, but securing it. (see Quinn's deal prior to the Stanley cup finals, there are many other examples). Nonis is a lame duck manager (last year) has probably alienated Luongo, who was the only player I saw watching the trade deadline publicly on TV. (this was a hint) Now watch Nonis give Alain a contract extension, trade Luongo, and tell every one the only way to improve a team is through the draft (years of continued employment). I'd love to have Nonis's job don't build in July, don't build at the trade deadline, just spin. Come watch the star in the center ring pay your money and see the star attraction. (there's a sucker born every minute) come on mushrooms (keep you the dark and cover you in sh*t) spend, spend, spend.
Install your car flags! Optimistic or pessimistic. Strong year or weak. A true sport fan remains faithful. A true fan supports wether in round 1 ... or during the final.
Also, living 4 hours west of Ottawa, more and more "Sens stuff" is being worn and hung! The army is getting bigger. Are we a bandwaggon army or a true army!! Let Sens fans show some grit and remain faithful!
Also, Anonymous, since you are comparing, you didn't take the time to mention Heatly's injury. Your are comparing stats like the CBC : "How can we make our favorite team/player look better".
These critics of the Senators are talking a big game before the series is even over. Pittsburgh is very beatable and has many of the same weak spots as Ottawa, only the Sens have more experience. It's not as if the Pens blew away the league this year, they only got 102 points.
We'll see what you're saying after the Sens win it in six.
There seems to be some debate about who's better, Crosby and Malkin or Heatley and Spezza. The total points is subjective as both sets have missed games due to injury, so lets look at points per game.
Crosby - 72 points in 53 games = 1.36 points per game.
Malkin - 106 points in 82 games = 1.29 points per game.
As a duo - 178 points in 135 games = 1.32 points per game.
Heatley - 82 points in 71 games = 1.15 points per game.
Spezza - 92 points in 76 games = 1.21 points per game.
As a duo - 174 points in 147 games = 1.18 points per game.
You can draw your own inferences from this data, but on a purely statistical view, Pittsburgh has the advantage. Whether that has any impact on the playoffs remains to be seen.
Perhaps a better stat would be the +/- of the defenceman on both teams.
Ottawa:
Commodore: -7
Mezaros: +5
Phillips: +15
Redden: +11
Schubert: +7
Volchenkov: +14
Total: +47
Pittsburgh:
Gill: +6
Gonchar: +13
Letang: -1
Orpik: +11
Sydor: +1
Whitney: -2
Total: +18
+/- doesn't tell a whole story, but based on it, Ottawa has a huge advantage on defence.
I can't say who will win because there are many intangibles that often determine the outcome of these games, but it may be a lot closer than many suspect. I think this should be a great series.
Yes, I have too much time on my hands. The playoffs better start soon!!
Sens fans need to quit pretending they have won something. Getting to the Final is not winning. If you want to count stats of futility, how many times have the Sens finished last in their short history and had a top five pick, and look where it has gotten them. Terrible. Leafs, yes they sucked this year, we admit it, but we still won the season series against the Senaturds. And when was the last time the Leafs had a top 5 pick? Befoe the Sens were even a team, if thats what you want to call them
Comparing points for Heatley/Spezza and Crosby/Malkin needs to include another little tidbit - Spezza and Heatley play on the SAME LINE - so a vast magority of their points are redundant - they often both get a point for the same goal scored. Whereas Crosby and Malkin only play together on the PP, so the vast magority of their points represent more goals being scored by the team.
As I said in another post Sens played excellent hockey for 6 wks, then were absolutley terrible for 5 1/2 months - (their win % over that period lands them 4th worste in the league). Now, when you have a period od 6wks of a good team follwed by 20 weeks of a bad team, which do you think most likely represents what's really there? And without their only 2 real leaders?
Support your team Sens fans, cause that's what you are supposed to do. But if the Sens manage to win this series, it will indeed be a massive upset.
Oh, and to the guy who actually suggested the Sens have better goaltending??? um, Based on what? Certainly not GA, GAA, or Save %, or general ability to stop the puck. So what is it - they have cooler masks?
More laughable predictions! Keep 'em coming Mendes, your Sens loving has really blinded you this time.
Note to "Badge" - don't get carried away with statistics, or at least be sensible when using them. Conklin is at .923 save %, Fleury is at .921 and Gerber's at .910. In other words, their differences on paper are negligible. What this means, mathematically, is that for every one hundred shots made on these guys, Gerber might let in one more goal PER HUNDRED SHOTS than either of Pittsburgh's guys, with everything else being equal (which it never is in sport). Given that there is rarely (if ever) that many shots on a single goalie in a game, the stats only show that they are too close to call. And yes, Gerber's Star Wars mask is cool.
And Tin Cup Canuk, you need to learn to count too. I understand, as a Leafs fan, you have to clutch at straws, but the Sens Leafs series ended up 4-4. That's what's known as a tie in most sports, not a win for either side. As for reaching the Final not being the same as winning the Cup, that's true(although we have had President's Trophy and Eastern Conference Champs banner-raising ceremonies in this century at least), but you have to be in it to win it, something you guys in Leafs-Land need to remember.
And the Leafs could have had a top five pick this year, but your team can't even suck effectively! Given all the pre-cap years where the Leafs tried to buy a Cup instead of developing young players, it looks like it will be a long time before you are contenders again, if ever.
BritaBroad, technically the leafs lost a game in a shootout which does mean the leafs won the season series due to more points won
Kalcoach: Not really sure how the Canucks rant fits in here, but I'll bite.
I'm glad you are as negative about the Canucks future as I am. They are terrible. That said, I don't see them trading Luongo. I also find it funny how at the start of the season, the Canucks were convinced they were cup contenders. Yet now everyone jumps all over the coach and GM as if they knew all along they were no good.
And when did Jeff Cowan ever show he could score? He didn't have a single goal this year.
The senators missed the boat, they are on the decline, they will not beat the Pens. Bryan Murray is a big loser complaining about the Pens throwing the last game of the season so they could play the Sens. I love watching Roberts beat up on the Sens....AGAIN!
Cue the laugh track is right. I could pull quotes from all the above posters, but instead I'll leave it at this:
Pens 2-0 Sens.
Before you can compair heatley/Spezza points to Malkin/Crosby you need to state a few facts like the fact that Crosby only played 53 games and had 72 points over that time. Crosby was leading the NHL when he got injured. Heatly/Spezza played 71/76 games respectively and had 82/92 points so I dont really see how this agruement is relevant. Stop grasping at straws Mendes. It's now 2-0 for the Pens in the series,but I wont write the sens off just yet though i'll wait to see how they play on home ice before I do that. P.S. Yes I am A leafs fan and I am cheering for the Pens not only because I dispise the sens but because i like the pens and the young tallent they have. I am also cheering for the Caps. Go Caps Go Pens.
Hey BritaBroad this is exactly what is wrong with the sens and their fans they are loosing 2 games to 0 against the Pens and rather than concentrate on what is really important like the sens trying to bounce back for a win you are willing to settle for leaf bashing and being satsified that the sens made the playoffs and the leafs never. With this kind of attitude the Sens and their fans could win the presidents trophy every year and never win the cup.
Ian, you clearly make the argument that the no. 7 seed has upset the no. 2 seed before..but 2/3 of your examples are of how ottawa lost even when they were in the 2nd seed. your argument really has no merit, you're essentially just pointing out how ottawa has consistently lost in the playoffs in the past.
and for all the sens fans here who think ottawa will win in five or six...wake up. pittsburgh is not the team it was last year. malkin is a machine and sidney has matured along with the rest of the team. your pathetic sens will be playing GOLF in five, not winning.
GO PENS GO