This year's Stanley Cup Final is a matchup of the two best teams in hockey. For an average columnist, it would be impossible to pick the winner, but Sportsnet.ca's Jim Kelley is not your average columnist.
As my colleague on these pages, Pierre LeBrun, points out, predictions can be a humbling thing.
I was 5-3 in the first round, a mediocre 2-2 in the second and 2-0 in the third, bringing me to a so-so 9-5 coming to what may well be the most difficult Stanley Cup Final I've ever had to handicap.
I mean what can you say, the Detroit Red Wings are great, they are the Presidents' Trophy winners and they pretty much sailed through the playoffs with wins over Nashville, Colorado (a sweep no less) and Dallas. They've lost all of one playoff game at home and are so amazingly deep, talented and unflappable that when starting goalie Dominik Hasek faltered "backup" Chris Osgood (who by the way has as many Stanley Cups as Hasek) came in and the team played better.
But then the Pittsburgh Penguins are great, what with having finished second overall in the East (and they could have easily been number one had they gone all out at the end or had Sidney Crosby been healthy for more than just half the season). They swept the Ottawa Senators in the first round, cruised past the supposedly better New York Rangers in the second and had their way with a tenacious and physical Philadelphia Flyers team en route to winning all but two games in the playoffs, losing none at home (8-0) and running off seven straight wins at the start.
A matchup of the two best teams in hockey, something of a rare occurrence in hockey and a series where a great many in the business of sports forecasting would be willing to just throw up their hands and yell "pick'em".
But not your humble Sportsnet. ca correspondent.
What follows is an expanded Sportsnet.ca breakdown complete with an overview, an explanation of what both teams need to do to win, an analysis of the key players and, as always, an unshakeable prediction in regards to how it will all turn out.
You don't have to thank me now, but feel free to send a cheque in my name to any charity of your choice including the Kelley's Kids foundation a group that has had it's hand in my wallet for decades.
Detroit Red Wings (Western Conference) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (Eastern Conference Champions)
Overview:
Both teams have pockets of extraordinary talent that can and usually do break a game wide open. Detroit fronts a first-line unit of Henrik Zetterberg centering for Pavel Datsyuk and, if healthy, Jon Franzen. The rest of the lines aren't as sexy, but this is a team that is more about team than it is about star contributions and though the Red Wings do have an issue with secondary scoring, they do tend to get rise-to-the occasion goals from people like Thomas Holmstrom, Kris Draper and others. Their strength is in their team play.
In many ways Detroit is like fine wine, not always accepted and appreciated by the untrained palate, but among hockey connoisseurs it is considered the best. It is a team that doesn't make many mistakes, excels at the little things that win games (faceoffs, play without the puck and along the boards, defensive support and the like and it has goaltending in Chris Osgood that many people don't appreciate, but is something to savor nonetheless.
Pittsburgh comes at you in a different way. It lacks experience, but it makes up for it in tenacity and a never-quit approach that comes with passion and seemingly at full speed all the time. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin key the attack, but there are potent weapons sprinkled throughout the lineup in the form of Jordan Staal, Petr Sykora, Ryan Malone and Marion Hossa, on paper, far the attack is far more effective than what the Red Wings have.
Detroit has a talented and experienced defence, led by the incomparable Nicklas Lidstrom, but ably backed through the next five spots. The unit also gets tremendous help from the forwards who are loathe to let the puck get away from them while on the attack and tenacious and dedicated in regards getting back to help the defencemen when they aren't. Beyond Lidstrom, it's all good with Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart and a load of depth players including the now legendary Chris Chelios, Brett Lebda and Andreas Lilja.
Pittsburgh's defence is not nearly as experienced and is regarded by many as the weak link in this series. That said, however, the unit has handled everything Ottawa, the Rangers and especially Philadelphia could throw at it and it did it with poise well beyond its collective years.
Sergei Gonchar is no Lidstrom in terms of his overall game, but he is an effective point producer from the blueline and on the power play. Brooks Orpik is big and tough and can play shutdown hockey and there's a nice and effective blend in Ryan Whitney, the ever improving Rob Scuderi, a veteran presence with size and toughness in Hal Gill and an all-around yeoman-type worker in Kris Letang. They too get help from a system. For all the talk about going in guns blazing, the Pens often resort to trapping once they have a one to two goal lead and they are good at it. They almost never surrender a lead, especially at home and on the rare occasions they do, they go right back to an attacking offence to get it back.
In goal, much is made of the fact the Wings have two Cup-winning goalies in Hasek and Osgood, but Hasek showed against Nashville that he is not the six-time Veznia winner he once was and has been relegated to the bench ever since. Osgood has been fine and outdueled Marty Turco of Dallas who was superb throughout the playoffs, but he hasn't had much work in these playoffs. That will change in this series and he could get worn down.
Pittsburgh counters with Marc-Andre Fleury who is just now coming into his own as a player worthy of the first overall draft pick bestowed on him in 2003. He's big, quick and seemingly more confident than in any time in his career. That's important against an experienced team, especially a team that knows how to give a goaltender fits with close-in plays, a little well-disguised physical abuse and an ability to keep the puck in his end for long stretches at a time.
In regards to coaching, Detroit's Mike Babcock is a budding master. It could be argued he's a tad weak in developing offence, but that's a rap from his past and his team is every bit as capable of manufacturing the team-lifting great goal as it is mastering every other nuance in the game.
Pittsburgh's Therein is thought to be more of a firebrand, but that's more an image thing. He is smart, a good but tough bench boss and a decent enough communicator so that he's got a very young team to believe in itself and believe in the fact that as good as they are offensively, team defence is how and why the best teams win championships. He also gets his club to play that kind of defence every night.
For the Red Wings to Win: Win the first game. Seriously, there is no better way to deflate an ever-inflating balloon of confidence than to burst it on the first night of the Stanley Cup finals when just being there can create a case of shock, awe and jitters. The Wings also need to constantly be on the attack in the Detroit end, pressing the defense down low and along the boards and causing havoc in front of Fleury. They need to exploit the overall lack of depth on the defensive unit, wearing down players like Gonchar and taking advantage of the less than mobile Gil. Detroit must win faceoffs which leads to more possessions for its puck possession game and keeps the pressure on the defence and the forwards who play defence. Any puck not in their control is a puck likely to end up on the stick of a Pittsburgh forward who can turn it into a scoring chance. Physical play is not Detroit's forte, but if it can engage, the Penguins, even their skilled players, have a tendency to respond and if that puts them in the penalty box, it's to Detroit's advantage. Detroit needs to be tenacious in snuffing out Pittsburgh's breakout plays. The Penguins like to utilize the long first-strike pass to breaking forwards and the Red Wings need to shut that down and force them to work the puck up the ice and then deep into the zone. It's all part of a wear-down plan that will eventually cause mistakes and capitalizing on mistakes is the key to victory vs. Pittsburgh.
For the Penguins to win: Win the first game. I know that's the same advice I gave the Red Wings, but if the Pens survive the hoopla and beat Detroit in Game One in Detroit, well you can't get a better bolt of confidence than that. Really, the Pens knew they were better than Ottawa and after sweeping them they built on that to beat New York. When that happened they had confidence against a Philadelphia team that seemed to have their number in the regular season but they were so filled with confidence that they just carried on taking the play to a team that early in the regular season they truly feared.
Like the Red Wings the Pens are game breakers with the man advantage so getting Detroit players to take penalties is every bit as important as not getting suckered into any themselves. Dallas was pretty much spent when it played the Red Wings, but the few times it did show control was on special teams and taking the puck to the net and forcing Osgood to move around in his crease. The Pens need to do a lot of that.
Neutralizing Lidstrom is impossible, but showing too much respect is a mistake. They need to attack him physically, shooting the puck into his end and then using superior speed to get in on him. Give him a second and he'll make a great play, but give him an endless series of hits and it will show up in the later games. Pens also need to shutdown the quick breakout pass, but also disrupt the Detroit flow game. The Wings are patient with the puck and will often play with it in the neutral zone, waiting to form an attack. Breaking up plays there will not only disrupt the puck possession game, but also cause turnovers in a zone where it's possible to get the odd-man rush. The Pens are awfully good on the odd-man rush.
Key Detroit Players: All of the above, but especially Datsyuk and Zetterberg, they key the offence. Jiri Hudler, the oft-overlooked left winger on the second line could be the key to the series if the Pens succeed in shutting down the top line. Detroit's fourth line, usually a combination of grit and experience can change the tempo with big hits, but also with timely goals from Draper, Maltby and even Daren McCarty. Osgood is also key. He cushioned the blow when Hasek was blown away, but if the Pens get him off his game and lurching for saves rather than positioning for shots, well what happens then? Franzen has been medically cleared to play and it's likely he will. He can be a difference maker if he's healthy and could even decide this series given his penchant for scoring timely goals, but his health is a big question mark and even if he's in the lineup, concussion symptoms can make him ineffective.
Key Pittsburgh Players: All of the above mentioned, but especially Malkin. He showed signs of slowing down in the grind of three rounds and especially the grinding hits the Flyers laid on him. He needs to come back strong and if he can't, it's even more pressure on Crosby. Sykora also needs to find his scoring touch and with a Stanley Cup ring shining on his finger he needs to show the way to players who haven't been here before. Staal, has to contribute more than just good special teams play. All and all, however, the series rides on Fleury. He needs to make some game-saving stops, the kind that keep his young mates confident and focused. If he falters (and he hasn't so far), the young Pens could crumble like a house of cards, especially if they start thinking that there will be other chances for a Cup down the road. That's the failure of a lot of young teams when they get far fast. Detroit knows that. You never know when Gary Roberts is healthy and able to contribute, but if he can find it in himself, well his experience and leadership and determination can make a difference.
Whitney has been focusing on being a defensive defenceman, but he has offensive ability and he needs to show it in this series.
Outlook: Much is made of the argument that the West is best and therefore the Red Wings are the more seasoned team. In terms of players with overall playoff experience, that's true, but in terms of the playoffs this spring, the Red Wings haven't really been tested. They drew No. 8 Nashville in the first round and the Predators played them tougher than Colorado or Dallas, two teams that didn't show much in the way of sustained offence. So for all the talk about Pittsburgh being outclassed, one could argue the Red Wings haven't seen anything like this offence and that could offset all that experience especially if the Wings can't get the early goals.
Much is also made of the fact the Pens don't lose at home, but the Wings aren't rattled on the road and if they have a 2-0 lead going into Pittsburgh, that home confidence will be severely tested.
Everyone puts the pressure on the Penguins given their inexperience, but if they weren't talking about that they would be talking about how many times the Red Wings looked to be champions and didn't quite get it done. They are in the finals for the fifth time in 13 years, but they aren't here with Steve Yzerman and Brendan Shanahan and others who have the stamp of winners so the pressure is on players whose time is now and haven't been able to get it done in previous years.
All and all the intangibles are a wash.
Prediction: Penguins get physical with Osgood and the Detroit forwards. They get a split in Detroit, win two at home, lose Game Five in Detroit and get it done in Mellon Arena in six games.