Unless you're Don Meehan or the Detroit Red Wings, predicting the NHL Entry Draft is a crapshoot.
The one thing that longtime National Hockey League types pretty much agree on is that nobody loses on draft day.
At least not right away.
Say what you will, but no one has ever come up with a better term for hockey's annual meat-market shopping tour than "crap shoot."
True, some teams crap shoot better than others (see picture of the Detroit Red Wings scouting staff) but even the Wings' success is due in large part because they have more scouts and beat more bushes than say the "video scouting department" that the Buffalo Sabres have in place or that forever foundering teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs or Florida Panthers (note to Leafs and Panthers: try to keep a general manager for more than a year or two at a time; stability can lead to some success).
Truth be told, the only outfit that virtually can't lose on draft day is super agent Don Meehan's The Hockey Agency which, along with partner Pat Morris, has about 15 of the projected top 30 players in this year's draft including consensus No. 1 pick Steven Stamkos headlining the stable.
We here at Sportsnet.ca make no claims to greatness in mapping out the draft. We don't even claim to get it right as many times as Meehan's clients get rich, but that doesn't deter us. What follows is the Sportsnet.ca Mock Draft, a list put together mostly by trying to match the best players with team needs now and as many as three years down the road. It's more inexact than predicting a crap shoot with unbalanced dice or being a tout for Charles Barkley, but at least you get to know the players, the team needs and, based on conversations and tidbits of information from a seasons-long collection of items squirreled away in our knapsack of knowledge, which direction a team might be heading.
(Please understand that this following information will be disavowed after the second pick unless of course we're on a run.)
The draft this Friday takes place in Ottawa. It's seven rounds long, but we'll deal with just the first round.
No. 1
Tampa Bay Lightning: C, Steven Stamkos, Sarnia Sting | Profile
Hey, do you think the Lightning lost all those games just so they could fire Stanley Cup-winning coach John Tortorella? Not a chance. The Lightning finished last simply to get into the lottery and have the best shot at a kid who will make fans forget Brad Richards and compliment Vincent Lecavalier (assuming they can keep him). He has speed and a great deal of creativity. Not in Sidney Crosby's class, but a deserving No. 1 pick and a player who can step in early to the No. 2 slot behind Vinny. Wait until Barry Melrose gets to mess with that.
No. 2
Los Angeles Kings: D, Drew Doughty, Guelph Storm | Profile
No consensus here, the Kings need a goalie, but there's not one available who is worthy of the second pick overall. They have some young talent at forward and there's no certainty that Doughty is even the best defenceman available in what shapes up to be a defence heavy draft, but with the emphasis on getting them young and playing them young, Doughty is a consensus most-likely-to-succeed-early pick and so he fits the Kings' profile of play them young and hope they develop fast. A word of caution here: there's a school of thought that suggests the Kings are laying down a smokescreen here and may trade the pick, moving down to perhaps get two defencemen in the draft and allowing another team to pick the best forward, Nikita Filatov, thereby claiming Doughty and perhaps Zach Bogosian or another of the five to seven elite defencemen in this draft.
No. 3
Atlanta Thrashers: D, Zach Bogosian, Peterborough Petes | Profile
We've heard rumors that the Thrashers also lust for Filatov, but then they take a look at their goals-against average and the state of their somewhat shambled defence and come to their senses. Bogosian is 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds and is ahead of a class of about five quality defenceman likely to go in the first 10 slots. He might not be as ready now as Doughty given that he's barely 18, but he might also project to be bigger and better down the road. His junior GM calls him a budding Chris Pronger. Normally we dismiss that, but his junior GM also had Pronger in Peterborough and may well know of what he speaks.
No. 4
St. Louis Blues: LW, Nikita Filatov, Moscow CSKA | Profile
Truth be told, the Blues would like to go defence (hence a possible trade since one they covet might be gone at this pick.) They are said to have an eye out for Alex Pietrangelo, but if Filatov, who is on record as saying he's coming to the NHL transfer agreement or no transfer agreement, is available, they would take him if they can't move up. Filatov is the top-ranked Euro talent, was a standout at the world junior championship, has a stunningly high skill level, speaks English and is said to have leadership qualities. What's not to like?
No. 5
New York Islanders: D, Alex Pietrangelo, Niagara Ice Dogs | Profile
The Islanders have needs everywhere (perhaps even at general manager) so they'll have no qualms taking this highly regarded prospect they wouldn't have expected to fall this far. He's a bit more of a project then some of the others above, but he has size, scoring ability, can quarterback the power play and a taste for the physical game.
No. 6
Columbus Blue Jackets: D, Luke Schenn, Kelowna Rockets | Profile
If coach Ken Hitchcock didn't have such a large say in player matters, we'd put right wing Mikkel Boedker in this slot, but there's still a quality defenceman on the board and we all know how much Hitch likes the D. This is the replacement (eventually) for the departed Adam Foote, a shutdown defenceman, hence the almost automatic appeal of Schenn.
No. 7
Toronto Maple Leafs: RW, Mikkel Boedker, Kitchener Rangers | Profile
Blame John Ferguson or maybe Mats Sundin for the Leafs not being in a position to draft one of the top two forward prospects, but hey, this kid isn't a bad No. 3. The Danish right winger played with Kitchener in the Memorial Cup and he didn't disappoint. He has shown scary offensive skills and wicked speed and most scouts consider his potential to be far greater than what he's shown so far which is a lot. The Leafs need defencemen as bad as anyone, but this kid is too good a prospect to pass up.
No. 8
Phoenix Coyotes: D, Tyler Myers, Kelowna | Profile
The 'Yotes are set in goal and there are enough young forwards in the forward ranks so the need - a desperate need - is at defence and Myers will help. He's big (a reported 6-foot-7 on skates, has been ranked as high as fourth among North American skaters and draws comparisons to Zdano Chara because of his size and exceptionally long reach. Most importantly, he's a strong and swift skater, something that fits in the Wayne Gretzky scheme of coaching.
No. 9
Nashville Predators (from Florida): C, Cody Hodgson, Brampton Battalion | Profile
There's a conundrum here for general manager David Poile's excellent scouting staff: take a centre to replace some of the aging elements there or a defenceman to replace some of the loss in the fire sale of a year ago when the team was on the cusp of financial disaster. If they trade up, it's defence, but we think they will hold this spot and go with Hodgson. Nothing flashy here, but a well-rounded skills package and the player said to be the smartest (we're talking hockey smarts here) player in the OHL. Poile is smart; he likes his players to be the same.
No. 10
Vancouver Canucks: C, Zack Boychuk, Lethbridge
Not overly big and he's down here in part because he had a disappointing showing for Team Canada in the world juniors, but the kid is tough and tough-minded and was second in scoring in the Western Hockey League this season. So he can skate and he can score and don't the Canucks need a player like that.
No. 11
Chicago Blackhawks: C, Kyle Beach, Everett Silvertips | Profile
There are some that question this kid's mental temperament, but not the Blackhawks. They like the idea of having a few edgy players in the lineup and Beach has that and the size head talent man Rick Dudley admires. Early reports are that Beach has character issues, but at 6-foot-3, 203 pounds and 222 penalty minutes last season the Hawks can work with that, especially if Beach comes to the defence of some of the smaller, skilled forwards like Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews.
No. 12
Anaheim Ducks (from EDM): C, Colin Wilson, Boston College | Profile
Hey, Brian Burke loves New England and Wilson played for Boston University, but there's more to it than that. Wilson slipped to this point in part because some question his skating skills, but he's a prototype NHLer with size, exceptional strength (he blew away the scouts at the Toronto combine with his ripped physique) and a solid scoring touch around the net in big games (impressive world junior performance). He's a Burke-type player. The Ducks aren't looking for a new centreman right away, but Wilson has three years eligibility remaining at a quality U.S. college hockey program so it's a fit.
No. 13
Buffalo Sabres: D, Luca Sbisa, Lethbridge | Profile
The Sabres have a desperate need for a centre and perhaps an eventual replacement for goalie Ryan Miller whom they may have trouble signing, but the biggest problem is on the back end and barring a trade to move up (the Sabres have this pick and the 26th for having sent Brian Campbell to San Jose at the deadline) they'll go here. Sbisa is a Swiss native, but he played his junior hockey in Lethbridge. Nothing flashy, but solid in all areas and a possible replacement for Dimitri Kalinin whom the Sabres let go in part because of a contract dispute and in part because head coach Lindy Ruff tired of the Russian's inconsistent play.
No. 14
Carolina Hurricanes: C, Josh Bailey, Windsor Spitfires | Profile
No big move here, Bailey has leadership skills and creativity and seems to be a good second-line centre pick to slot in behind Eric Staal. Centre is a weak point for the 'Canes in that they need more youth in that position and Bailey fits.
No. 15
Nashville Predators: D, Michael Del Zotto, Oshawa Generals | Profile
Having spurned a trade offer and already possessing a new forward, the Preds shift to the blue line to grab this offensive-minded defenceman. His stock slipped from top-five consideration over the course of the season largely because of poor play in his own end, but offensive ability comes naturally and the Preds have a great coaching staff who can teach the finer points of the back end over time and the kid has shown a willingness to learn.
No.16
Boston Bruins: C, Joe Colborne, Camrose Kodiaks (Junior A) | Profile
The Bruins go their own way and this kid may be a little off the charts, but he's big (6'5) and strong and will remind people of Joe Thornton. That may make some Bruins fans worry, but this is a long-term prospect ticketed to college in Colorado next season.
No. 17
Calgary Flames: D, Colten Teubert, Regina Pats | Profile
Another Pronger wannabe who fits in with Calgary's style. Size and with a reputation as a shut down D-man. Some concern about his overall hockey skills, and there are reports that the Flames would have taken Colbourne if he was available, but Teubert has a lot of grit which is good enough for the Flames.
No. 18
Ottawa Senators: LW, Matias Tedenby, Sweden | Profile
Best player available and the player who will someday replace Daniel Alfredsson on the team's sweater sales charts for Swedish stars. How he slipped to this spot is the big draft question.
No. 19
Columbus BlueJackets (from COL): G, Tom McCollum, Guelph Storm | Profile
Hey, Ottawa passed on this kid, the Blue Jackets, who like the marketing that comes with an American born prospect won't. A fast rising prospect.
No. 20
New York Rangers: RW, Jared Staal, Sudbury | Profile
The Rangers can never have enough Staals. No replacement for Jaromir Jagr, but a decent prospect at this position.
No. 21
New Jersey Devils: G, Jacob Markstrom, Sweden | Profile
The eventual replacement for Martin Brodeur, he's big, plays a calm, composed game and is a good athlete.
No. 22
Edmonton Oilers (from ANA): C, Daultan Leveille, St. Catharines
An Oilers kind of player with speed, skill and a nose for the puck. He'll play early and well with the kids already there.
No. 23
Washington Capitals: RW, Kirill Petrov, Russia | Profile
There was a thought given to Anton Gustafsson, son of former Cap Bengt Gustafsson, but Caps fans couldn't care less about their past, they are looking to the future and to find a forward with these skills this late and one who will be enticed out by the prospect of playing with Alex Ovechkin, a no brainer. He's said to be tied to a contract over there, but then contracts in Russia aren't recognized in the US and the transfer agreement is ended and there's a bidding war coming and what the heck, why not?
No. 24
Minnesota Wild: D, Aaron Ness, Minnesota High School | Profile
When in doubt, look to the locals; and he's a good looking local from nearby Roseau High School. Minnesota's Mr. Hockey.
No. 25
Montreal Canadiens: C, Nicolas Deschamps, Chicoutimi Sagueneens | Profile
May be a reach at this spot, but hey, the best French Canadian prospect available, how can they not take him?
No. 26
Buffalo Sabres (from S.J.): D, Tyler Cuma, Ottawa | Profile
A converted forward just like his coach, Lindy Ruff. A character guy like his coach and a no problem guy just like his coach wants. Not the best prospect, but hey, that's what you get when you scout off tips and TV.
No. 27
Philadelphia Flyers: D, John Carlson, USHL | Profile
An American kid for what's becoming the team all America (outside of the city of brotherly beatings) and Canada love to dislike. He's big, with a shot to match, knows the meaning of the word "mean" and he grew up across the river in Jersey, take that Lou Lamoriello.
No. 28
Los Angeles Kings (from DAL): D, Brandon Burlon, Mt. Mike's Buzzer
Off most charts, but the Ontario Provincial Junior League has some NHL grads now and this kid is mobile, strong and plays with the kind of edge the Kings need.
No. 29
Atlanta Thrashers (from PIT): G, Chet Pickard, Tri-City Americans | Profile
Thrashers got to find one someday. This is their day and they're lucky to get him here.
No. 30
Detroit Red Wings
Some nameless, faceless Euro who will not be on anyone's list and with a bio you couldn't find if you had both hands on his stats. Likely will evolve into a Selke or Norris Trophy candidate. Damned if we know his name.