The NHL is naive in its assessment that the economic crisis will not affect the league until next season.
I was delighted to see the NHL board of governors acknowledge that troubled times lie ahead.
But I disagree with the assessment given by Commissioner Gary Bettman as the meeting concluded. The commissioner believes the league is fine for this season because all the money came in before the economy hit a brick wall, and the real pinch won't be felt until next year.
Has Bettman tuned into a game being played in a non-traditional hockey market, lately? Empty seats everywhere. Even in Detroit where the Red Wings are defending Stanley Cup champion and some tickets are being sold for $10. I don't give a hoot what the league says about attendance numbers being up and the fact the league enjoyed its best October ever; I'm simply not buying it.
Paid for or not, an empty seat is an empty seat. Read between the lines and you will see how it speaks volumes about the problems to NHL faces today, never mind next season. People that pay for tickets, but don't attend games, don't pay for parking and also don't spend money at the food concessions or purchase souvenirs. In a gate-driven league, all of those things are important.
Bettman acknowledges troubled times lie ahead, but then he says, "Probably a good indication for us will be how playoff ticket sales go. But while there is concern, there is also hopeful optimism."
In other words, it could be well before next season when the NHL feels the heat.
That's because the 2008-09 playoffs arrive before the start of the 2009-10 season. That's when I think the NHL could begin to see a dip in paid attendance. If the economy doesn't take a significant turn for the better between now and then - and it's hard to imagine that happening - people will be even more cautious about how and where they spend their discretionary income. I somehow doubt NHL playoff action will be high on many lists.
It is quite common, in fact, for attendance to go down at American Hockey League games in the post-season when fans season tickets expire and the league depends largely on walk-up ticket sales. The NHL is headed towards the same fate this season. Perhaps the NHL will mark up ticket prices for the playoffs this year and risk losing fans?
To its credit, the NHL did invite economic experts to offer tips to NHL owners on how to proceed in such a shaky economy, although it occurs to me, if there are really such things as economic experts, why the hell didn't they see this mess coming?
But I digress.
Do you really believe owners and general managers will take their advice to spend cautiously? Some perhaps, but don't bet on a full-scale buy-in.
If Jay Bouwmeester or Marian Hossa make it to unrestricted free agency in July, as expected, just watch GMs trip over each other to sign them to long-term, mega-bucks contracts. Never mind the fact the salary cap, which is currently at $56.7 million, is expected to go down following the 2009-10 season and could go down again in subsequent seasons.
The fact of the matter is a number of general managers will be under huge pressure to win next season or risk losing their jobs. And if there is one thing that will always remain constant, it is winning trumps everything, including common sense.
Just look at the contacts that have been handed out the past few years - 15 years for Islanders goalie Rick DiPietro, 12 for Flyers captain Mike Richards and 11 for Tampa Bay Lightning pivot Vinny Lecavalier. For that matter, Hossa turned down a nine-year, $81 million deal to play for Edmonton because it meant he'd have to play in Edmonton. He accepted a one-year, $7.45 million offer from Detroit because he felt playing with the Red Wings gives him his best chance at winning the Stanley Cup.
NHL GMs didn't listen to the league when it warned them against signing over-30 players to huge deals, even when the league showed evidence those deals rarely worked. So are to believe the GMs will listen now?
The NHL has indicated it will monitor what happens in Major League baseball because it is the first of the four major pro sports leagues entering into a selling phase. If baseball has trouble attracting major sponsors and selling out luxury boxes, then you know the NHL will be hit even harder. Remember: People in the United States like baseball.
"The NHL will be fine," Bettman told the league-operated nhl.com. "We may have to focus on the way we are operating into the future, in terms of the value proposition for fans and cost controls and the like, but none of our clubs are in jeopardy. The games will be played and we are doing OK this season. Revenues will be up and there will be real growth. But, like everyone else, we need to be observant, flexible and proactive to deal with the uncertainties the future will bring."
I am not saying Bettman is fibbing when he says none of the NHL's 30 teams are in jeopardy, but I don't think he's painting a totally accurate picture, either. A number of teams are expected to lose millions of dollars this season.
The commish has taken off his rose-colored glasses, but if he thinks it won't be until next season when the NHL feels the pain of a sagging economy, he's still not seeing things with 20-20 vision.
