Entering the stretch run of the NHL season, teams are running out of time to make the magic number and earn a playoff berth.
Well now isn't this interesting.
Taking a page from Lindy Ruff in Buffalo, Ron Wilson and Brian Burke in Toronto as well as seemingly half the still-working coaches or general managers in the NHL, Montreal boss Bob Gainey told his most-talented, yet, unproductive player, Alexei Kovalev, to sit a spell.
Not in the press box or in the many hideaway points in various buildings around the league, but at home.
He did it carefully, politely and with the door wide open for a gallant return, but he did it:
A) Because as we explained in an earlier column that's about all coaches and general managers can do these days and…
B) Because if you look at the standings, now is the time to (if not panic then) be seriously concerned.
Friend and colleague Mike Brophy said this week that there is still time to right the Canadiens ship. I agree, but thought it might be interesting to see how much time. Measuring any one point in the NHL season can be difficult because the games-played number is always shifting but with the help of a fixed point, a handy spreadsheet and the unofficial but usually accurate '90-point rule' you can get a reasonably-accurate picture.
The 90-point rule has been in vogue since play resumed after the 2004-05 lockout and says that given the introduction of the three-point game (two for a win in overtime or a shootout and one for the loser of an overtime or shootout game), a team needs 90 points or better to make the postseason. The old standard used to be 80. Last season you pretty much needed a point or four beyond 90 to make the grade.
Coaches pretty much live by the numbers and though measuring from about 25-games out for most teams there appears to be a little more wiggle room than in past seasons (likely because of so many teams with similar records so late in the season) the 90-point number will either be bang on or awfully close . Understand that by our calculations, the Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, Atlanta Thrashers and New York Islanders are done as playoff contenders in the National Hockey League's Eastern Conference.
Carolina and Pittsburgh have reason to be seriously worried while Montreal, Florida and Buffalo still have to be nervous, presumably right down to the final day of the season.
Since the schedule is always in flux, we took games through Tuesday of this week as the measuring point. That's when the bulk of the teams hit the 25-games remaining mark, a figure that gives some balance in the ever changing games-remaining column. It's also when Gainey sent Kovalev a ticket to his living room.
On that day, Boston, Washington, New Jersey and Philadelphia seemed to be locks for the playoffs in the East. Boston could afford to go 1-22-1 and still make the 90 point standard. Washington could afford to go 7-18-0 and Philadelphia could see 11-16-0 and still be comfortable.
The Canadiens were looking at wiggly numbers, 12-12-1 to make the mark while the Panthers and the Sabres were dealing with 12-11-1. Pretty safe if each team can play .500 hockey down the stretch, but worrisome if you're in a skid like the Canadiens, close out the season with a tough schedule like Florida or missing some key performers like Buffalo (Thomas Vanek).
The Rangers are also looking at 12-11-1, but seem in a much more perilous position given they've been in freefall of late and have done next to nothing to stop it. Carolina meanwhile needs a 15-9-0 run, something that has been outside their reach for much of the season given that the team had performed at about .500 when head coach Peter Laviolette was fired and has remained at that level with his replacement behind the bench, Paul Maurice.
Pittsburgh made its move when it fired head coach Michael Therien earlier in the week, but it did so with its numbers at 15-8-1 and likely needs the Rangers to continue their freefall while putting together a sustained winning streak, something that didn't start very well when the Pens managed just a point against the lowly New York Rangers in interim coach Dan Bylsma's first game behind the bench.
Despite owner Eugene Melnyk's oft-stated guarantee, the Senators seem cooked needing some 19 wins against seven losses at the most recent measuring mark. The Leafs, having played more games, needed the same number of wins but could afford only five losses and one overtime or shootout loss. Tampa was a hopeless 21-4-0, Atlanta was at 22-2-0 and the Islanders were at 25-0-1.
In the West, things seem a little clearer though the race still remain highly competitive at the bottom end. San Jose (2-24-1), Detroit 4-21-0), Chicago (9-18-0) and Calgary (9-16-0) appear rock solid. Dallas was the leader of the .500 club with a need for a 13-12-1 finish followed by Vancouver (13-12-0), Edmonton and Columbus (both with a 14-11-0 goal).
That left No. 9 Minnesota needing to have someone slip or see itself posting a 15-11-1 finishing kick. Anaheim still had a shot if it went 14-9-1, but then it gets difficult.
Los Angeles, a squad few thought would make the postseason needed a 16-10-1 mark to go to 90 points. Nashville needed 16-8-1 while St. Louis needed a 17-8-1 mark, pretty much impossible given their current level of play.
Colorado is hoping to make a late run when injured players return, but having to go 17-6-1 to better 90 points they are decided underdogs, same for the perennially challenged Coyotes who also need 17-6-1 or better to finally qualify and, in the real world at least, save Wayne Gretzky's job.
Oddly enough, or perhaps not so depending on how you see the competitive standards in the league, it took 94 points or better to be an Eastern Conference-playoff team last spring and the Bruins, currently the frontrunners, took the last one with that number. Montreal finished first with 104. Both the Carolina Hurricanes and the Buffalo Sabres missed with 92 and 90 respectively. The Canes missed on the last day of the regular season, pushed aside by the surging Washington Capitals who won the Southeast Division crown (and the third seed) with 94 points.
In the West, the magic number was 91 and garnered by the Nashville Predators. Calgary grabbed the No. 7 spot with 94 points, one less than the sixth-place Colorado Avalanche (95). Detroit won going away (115 points many of which came from feasting on a weak Central Division). San Jose was second at 108 followed by Minnesota which, playing the Western role of the Capitals, took third with 98 points a far sight fewer than fourth-place Anaheim (102). Dallas was fifth with 97.
It wasn't all that long ago when the standard was 80 points but with the infusion of more points to be had (or not lost depending upon your point of view) via the overtime and shootout, 90 is the new gold standard. Getting there can be difficult, but because there are so many points available now, climbing over teams to get there is getting darn near impossible.
The Canadiens have an advantage of being in the group of eight as of this writing. It gives them an edge over teams on the outside looking in, but only if they take care of their business.
