The frenzy of Trade Deadline Day causes even the shrewdest of GMs to lose all sanity and make horrible trades.
If rumours count for anything there will be some 700 players traded at the upcoming 3 p.m. deadline March 4.
That's right, virtually every player in the National Hockey League.
Don't believe it? Why, because you think you can't trade Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin? Didn't the Wayne Gretzky deal let the air out of that argument?
Want Vinny Lecavalier out of Tampa? Doesn't matter that general manager Brian Lawton said he won't be traded and used the word "never". Heck, that's just the kiss of trade death right? I mean everyone knows that right?
Chris Pronger to Toronto, Nikolai Khabibulin to Buffalo, hey those could happen right? We've still got five days to go toward what used to be a relatively nondescript day in the National Hockey League and for the record on March 8, 1983 the deadline produced all of one deal involving one player, but the hype is already so far over the top that it couldn't be pulled back if a cement head was skating it up the ice with a ball and chain attached to both ankles.
I blame Bill Torrey for that. The New York Islanders general manager pretty much started all of this madness back at the 1979-80 trade deadline, the first on record, when he traded for Butch Goring, a utility-tool of a player who could fill a second-line centre role for an Islanders team that was on the cusp of greatness before he even arrived. Torrey wanted a guy who could play in all three zones, win faceoffs, kill penalties and score the occasional timely goal. Everyone in hockey knew Goring could do all that based on his performances with the Los Angeles Kings so Torrey sent Billy Harris and Dave Lewis and the rest, as they say, was history.
The Islanders went on to win four straight Stanley Cups and general managers past and present have been looking to replicate that kind of deal ever since. But never in terms of the volume we see today. Years of one, four, five and fewer players being was the norm. It wasn't until the 1988-89 season that the deadline saw more than 20 trades take place (21 involving 30 players) but with the advent of seemingly relentless media pressure, a 30-team NHL and the added element of the need to become either a buyer or a seller for cap reasons, did the deadline day happenings truly get out of hand. In the last three seasons, all following the owner's lockout and the birth of the salary cap there have been 25 trades per season seeing 40, 44 and then 45 players moved.
What gives?
St. Louis Blues President John Davidson thinks it's a combination of things including playoff positioning and economics but even he isn't exactly sure.
"It has to do with supply and demand," Davidson said. "It has to do with, even through this last weekend here, if key injuries hit teams that become long term injuries, they may have to go do something. There are a lot of different variables involved here. How many teams feel we've got to find a guy so we can get in the playoffs, or how many teams feel we're in the playoffs, we think we've got a great shot, now is the time, we look at our window of opportunity, which sometimes can be very slim, so let's go for it.
"It also could be that our history or a certain team's history of drafting hasn't panned out. There are a lot of different variables when you get into this thing. I don't think there's any set avenue that everybody's going down regarding what's coming up.
"I don't know if that made sense."
In a word John: no.
From where we sit, it appears that Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke had some better insights. He said that basically the trade deadline is the one day of the year where the normally cautious GMs allow themselves to look stupid.
"There's horrible math involved here," Burke said. "Any mathematician will tell you that we're all crazy... we're all nuts. There are 30 teams. There's one parade. After the first round there are only eight teams playing... The math is horrible."
Burke went on to say that the normally rational self often loses control in the passion of the moment, the idea that one deal or even several deals could be the difference between making or not making the playoffs or maybe even winning the Stanley Cup.
"It's the human element," he said. "There's that optimism we all share, that belief we're missing the one piece. Second, your team expects it. Your players are looking to you to add weapons for this last part of the race. "So we all get sucked in. We all make poor decision and brilliant decisions at the trade deadline that have won them rounds, carried them farther than they should go, but for every guy that makes a brilliant decision , there are five or six of us that make poor ones that same day.
"It's an awful day, it's an exciting day, it's a day full of magic and a day full of very poor decision making."
Ah, now we seem to be getting somewhere but here's a question that no GM seems willing to answer:"How many of these "horrible" deals wouldn't get done if there wasn't in addition to the trading frenzy itself, the unrelenting pressure not to look like someone who can't get something done. In the GM fraternity they are all aware of the media and fan scrutiny and more than a few of them have to answer to owners who sometimes think the media has a better solution for what ails his team than his general manager does.
Knowing that the bright light of Deadline Day is shining, the pressure to do something is very real.
Scott Howson, a former assistant GM in Edmonton and now the boss in Columbus at least hinted at it with this response: "I think it depends on the situation you're in" he said. "If I think of those types of deals that I've been involved with, one was Ryan Smyth two years ago (to the Islanders), and one was Adam Foote (to Colorado) last year. Certainly I was on the end of taking the younger players back. I can tell you right now, I'll still do those deals now. I think they worked out for both teams. But it was tough to do at the time.
"So I think, to answer your question, I think teams are leery of it. But I think if you're in the right situation with a real chance to win the Stanley Cup, you can get a really, really good player, I think you still have to do it."
And tell me again how close Colorado and the Islanders got to the Cup with those deals?
Most people point to the Goring deal, but as impactful as that was, I would argue that the maturation of players like Denis Potvin, Bryan Trottier, Mike Bossy, Clark Gilles and goalie Billy Smith, along with the timely addition of Olympic gold medal-winning defenceman Ken Morrow was every bit as important as the addition of Goring. You could make a strong case for the deadline deal that sent Ron Francis to the Pittsburgh Penguins in 1991 or even Larry Murphy leaving the Toronto Maple Leafs for a Cup-winning run with Detroit in 1997 and again in 1998, but you could also argue those were Stanley Cup teams whether those players arrived or not.
I would argue that for every Goring, Francis or Murphy there are more than the five or six bad deals that Burke mentioned. Another Islander transaction, the 2007 deal for unrestricted free agent Ryan Smyth is a perfect illustration of that. The Islanders got Smyth for the playoff run. They made it and went out in five games in the first round. Smith refused to sign there and the franchise has been struggling even more than usual ever since.
One could argue the same thinking is happening to the Pittsburgh Penguins after they went large for Marion Hossa at the deadline last season, lost in the finals and then lost him in free agency to Detroit, the team that beat them in the finals and are now struggling to even make the playoffs this time around. San Jose obtaining puck-moving defenceman Brian Campbell; what did that net them?
Atlanta's Keith Tkachuk deal two years back got them into the postseason for the first time ever, but they went out in four games and haven't been back since. They won't be there again this season.
Burke might be right, the right deal for that one team may well be out there and in pursuit of a ring or just a playoff spot it is hard not to chase it, but following all the chaos of trade deadline day is the fact that when reality sets in the results for many teams truly is "horrible."
