The Vancouver Canucks find themselves on the outside of the post-season dance, longingly looking at what could have been. Another spring has come and gone without this team advancing to the Cup Finals, which means at least something will need to be tweaked. Or should something more severe be done? This is Canada, so just walk five feet in any direction and you can get completely contrasting opinions on the issue.
Hmm. Wait. This is Canada. Make that 1.5 meters or so.
Before you make up your mind though, slip on your GM hat and put yourself in the shoes of Mike Gillis. Let's have a look at which contract situations are facing the team and what might be available on the open market this summer. Poolies definitely have a stake in whatever happens with this roster, so we're invested in its outcome.
The biggest decision facing Gillis now is what to do with 28-year old forwards Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin. If they're not re-signed by the team before July 1st, they'll hit the open market after just finishing up contracts that paid them each $3.58M. While they'll certainly get a raise from that amount, what'll be the final dollar value? Somewhere between $5M and $7M, no doubt, with the annual salary probably falling near the middle of those targets. Until pen is put to paper though, the Sedins-to-Toronto rumours will no doubt continue to flow regularly with the Brian Burke connection alive and well.
One key point to the Sedin decision is that if you decided to go the replacement route, are you sure that whichever two free agents you sign will be able to have anywhere near the chemistry Daniel and Henrik have after all of these years of playing together?
If you were in the camp of people earlier in the year who thought the Sedins should be gone after '08-9 with Vancouver rebuilding its first line, did their playoff performances change your mind at all? When the post-season began, the twins had combined for just 38 points in 86 career GP. Daniel had a pair of goals last night with the season on the line with three different two-pointers in 10 starts and 10 points in all. Henrik had a point-per-game average in each series with 10 total as well.
The extra money to re-sign them is there, considering that Mats Sundin and his pro-rated $8.6M cap hit - which came out to just under $5.4M - will no doubt be gone. Signing the 38-year old pivot (ok, he was technically only 37 then) was a valiant effort at the time and he did have three different two-point outings in the Chicago series with a point-per-game average in the playoffs over his eight starts, but it just doesn't seem likely he'll be back with the team and he may just retire altogether.
Plus, with the emergence of Ryan Kesler's offensive game this year the Canucks could bring in another top six forward to replace Sundin and they'd have the option of it being a winger or a centre, since Kesler has proven to ably fill either role. The only caveat there is that Kesler, who had that breakout season, has only one year left on his current deal that pays him $1.75M and then he'll be an RFA.
Pavol Demitra, the other regular on the second line, has one year left on his deal at $4M. Alex Burrows, who still has room to grow into his role alongside the Sedins, is secure with an affordable four-year, $8M contract extension he inked in early March.
Steve Bernier ($2.5M), Kyle Wellwood (just shy of $1M) and Jannik Hansen ($0.5M) are each RFAs this summer.
Mattias Ohlund ($3.5M) will be a UFA on July 1st if he's not signed beforehand, while Shane O'Brien will be an RFA.
Captain Roberto Luongo ($6.75M) has one more year left on his contract and hasn't committed either way in terms of his future. Back-up Jason LaBarbera, acquired from the Kings, is going to be a UFA this summer. Is it time to have Cory Schneider back-up at the NHL level? Or will the Canucks, as has been rumoured, be in the running to land hot Swedish free agent goalie Jonas Gustavsson as an insurance policy to apprentice under Luongo with Gustavsson and Schneider potentially tag-teaming if Luongo decides to leave the West Coast? Regardless of what you think of Luongo, the team has no choice but to consider other viable options if he won't sign another contract at some point in the near future.
Before we delve into potential free agents for the Canucks, where would you slot Cody Hodgson in his development? Is he - as some believe - ready to step from the OHL into the NHL next season and if so, can he take the spot of Mats Sundin at great savings for the team? Possibly, but would you really forego a top six forward in the free agent market and place that much secondary offensive scoring pressure on his young shoulders? It's one thing to have Hodgson step up on his own next season and push someone else out of a job; it's entirely another to go into the season expecting it and not having Plan B ready and waiting.
And is Michael Grabner, who potted 30 goals for Manitoba in 66 GP in '08-9 after having only 22 in 74 the prior season, ready to translate his scoring touch onto the bigger stage yet?
Let's have a look at some of the potential unrestricted free agents available and their cap hit from their last contract to give you an idea of who might be out there as a potential top six fit. Some of the options are highly unlikely for the Canucks, but they show you what the entire marketplace might look like this summer.
Marian Hossa ($7.45M) is one of the biggest fish in the winger pond, but I'm inclined to think Detroit will find a way to squeeze him into a long-term contract despite having already locked up Johan Franzen. Martin Havlat's ($6M) stock has continued to rise after he finally had a healthy season, but the deeper Chicago goes and the more he produces the more likely it seems the Hawks will find a way to keep him around once they trade one of their two goalies. With Corey Crawford and Antti Niemi coming up it's pretty ridiculous to have both Nikolai Khabibulin and Cristobal Huet, which we've known since last summer. Khabi's re-emergence as a money goalie may well mean it's Huet who hits the road, despite the fact that Khabi himself will be a UFA this summer.
Marian Gaborik ($6.33M) is free and clear from the Wild but his explosive goal-scoring potential has to be weighed against his injury risk. Michael Cammalleri ($3.35M) will be one of the more expensive UFAs based on his offensive production and he's great at the wing or centre. Jason Williams ($2.2M) will make less and can also play both slots.
Alexei Kovalev ($4.5M), Saku Koivu ($4.75M), Alex Tanguay ($5.25M) and Robert Lang ($4M) are not under contract to the Habs.
Nik Antropov ($2.05M), Mike Comrie ($4M), and Viktor Kozlov ($2.5M) are potential choices. Steve Sullivan ($3.2M and a potential bargain if he doens't re-up with Nashville), Maxim Afinogenov ($3.33M), Brian Gionta ($4M), Erik Cole ($4M and likely back with Carolina) and Keith Tkachuk ($4M) are out there, along with Bill Guerin ($4.5M and probably glued to Sid's side at a lower price next year) and Mike Knuble ($2.8M).
If you think another defenceman needs to be part of the equation in Vancouver, there are a number of alternatives on the market.
Jay Bouwmeester ($4.88M) is the guy a lot of teams are going to want to get their hands on because he'll only be turning 26 for the start of next season and is coming into the prime of his career. Mike Komisarek ($1.7M) is out there and as much as it's been a punch line for people, you honestly couldn't blame him for switching conferences to de-Lucic himself.
Scott Niedermayer ($6.75M) will be a hot commodity if he doesn't retire and doesn't fit in with the Ducks' plans. Francois Beauchemin ($1.65M) is also available and while he'll get a raise, he still might be a reasonably-priced option. The Ducks will be hard-pressed to keep all of their defencemen for next season unless they deal manage to deal Jean-Sebastien Giguere to clear cap space.
Rob Blake ($5M), Mathieu Schneider ($5.63M), Adrian Aucoin ($4M) and Jaroslav Spacek ($3.33M) are older choices. Johnny Oduya ($0.6M) is a mid-range guy that could thrive with more ice time. Paul Mara ($1.95M) and Derek Morris ($3.92M) may not be back with the Rangers. Cory Murphy ($0.41M) has offensive skills.
There are more players out there, of course, but those are the major names that'll be poked and prodded by the shoppers this summer.
By the time training camp rolls around there could be some major changes to this team or the off-season might just result in a few minor tweaks. Only time will tell, but the clock is ticking for Gillis and you can bet this will be an all-consuming issue for Canucks fans as they stew over another playoff exit that was too early for anyone's taste on the west coast.