I can’t say with any certainty that the Pittsburgh Penguins are going to win the Stanley Cup this time around.

I mean, heck, you’re reading a guy who thought the Carolina Hurricanes were poised for a comeback after falling behind two games to none in their Eastern Conference final series with the Pens.

But even having to make that admission, I like the Pens’ chances. I like them a lot.

After all, they beat the Philadelphia Flyers with ease, dominated a deciding Game 7 with the formidable Washington Capitals and swept a decent, if overmatched, Carolina club.

But even that’s not enough to sway me because in many ways all they did was exactly what the defending Detroit Red Wings did in the West. Detroit dispatched the Columbus Blue Jackets with ease, survived a difficult series with a tenacious Anaheim club that went seven hard-fought games and then they took apart a game, but overmatched Chicago team with almost the same ease the Penguins had in dispatching the ‘Canes.

But what makes the Pens, in my eyes at least, more of a threat this time around is that they played, and won in this postseason much the way the Red Wings did.

They have scoring that comes from more than one line (something we didn’t always see when they finished 10th overall in the regular season, but is clearly in evidence under the direction of new coach Dan Bylsma).

They play a control game, especially when they are in the other team’s end of the rink. They limit the chances of the other team’s best scorers, denying them the puck or at least denying them space in front of the net while they attempt to get the puck there. They generally exhibit more control along the boards than their opponents.

They remain calm, focused and in control even when the chaos level rises to what had heretofore been unfathomable heights for a young team, a team that often seemed more excitable than the team it was playing against through all of the playoff bouts last season.

Isn’t that the very essence of how the Red Wings win?

It wasn’t always this way with Pittsburgh, but you could see the development coming all through the previous playoff rounds with the Flyers and the Capitals. It was especially evident in the Game 7 win in Washington with the Caps poised for the biggest game of their young lives and the fans whipped to a frenzy of near indescribable proportion, but Sid the Kid and company calmly skated out onto the ice and systematically destroyed the Caps with a take-apart game for which the Capitals had no answer.

The easy perception was that it all turned on Alex Ovechkin missing on a breakaway and Crosby coming right back to score Pittsburgh’s first goal, but it was so much more than that. You had the sense that even if Ovechkin had scored that opening tally, these Pens wouldn’t leak confidence, that they would come back and play their game; a game the Caps weren’t deep enough, skilled enough or experienced enough to match.

That was on display again in the clinching game against Carolina where ‘Canes scoring star Eric Staal finally got on track and scored the opening goal less than two minutes into the game. The crowd, as we reporters like to say, went wild, but the Pens kept coming in waves, getting goals from role players such as Ruslan Fedotenko, Max Talbot and Bill Guerin en route to a 4-1 triumph.

That was a calm, opportunistic club that beat the ‘Canes, the Caps and the Flyers, a more mature version of a talented team that lost to those very same Red Wings last spring.

Is that enough to make a difference this time around?

Well the way vanquished Hurricanes coach Paul Maurice put it, maybe yes.

"There are no flukes in a seven-game series," Maurice said. "They (the Penguins) deserved to win."

A deserving team is different than a team of wannabe winners, even a very talented team of wannabe winners.

Even when Carolina finally managed to get a handle on Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby in the game they absolutely had to win, it went for naught. Pittsburgh proved itself to be more than just two players with a nose for the net. To be sure they have their problems still on the back end, problems the Red Wings are certain to try and exploit, but one gets the sense that this time around Crosby won’t be crying about bad breaks, he’ll be making his own breaks and this time if Malkin gets shutdown there will be others, players like Guerin and even Miro Satan, who can fill his scoring space.

And one can argue that goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, both a hero and, at times, a goat in the series with the Red Wings last spring, is a better goalie this time around. Fleury’s greatest contribution to the playoff run this spring has been his remarkable consistency. He’s not just a difference maker some of the time or because of one or two great stops, he’s a difference maker all of the time. A player who doesn’t blink in the face of an onrushing Ovechkin is a player who will not fear anyone, including anyone wearing the red and white of the defending champs.

Is that enough?

Not if you believe that the master is still better than the student.

There’s reason to buy into that and it starts in goal. Fleury may be better, but Osgood has been there before and won and in these playoffs at least he’s shown himself to be back on a championship track.

Osgood seems to be getting better as the playoffs age, overcoming a difficult regular season to start steady against Columbus and be a difference maker vs. Anaheim and Chicago. It’s difficult to bet against Osgood, especially when in the four games he’s lost, all four have been by a single goal and two of those were in overtime.

Osgood is back and he’s back big time.

Perhaps more importantly, so are the Wings in general. Sure there are injuries; some of them seemingly serious and to big-name players, but the Wings don’t seem flustered by lineup changes, even when it means having names like Pavel Datsyuk, Nik Lidstrom and others off the roster for a time. The Wings have lost just once at home this postseason and enjoy home ice for this series. Home ice was a factor vs. the Pens last spring and the Joe Louis Arena can be worth a goal to the Wings even before their opponent steps onto the ice.

And while the Pens have some depth players that are contributing more so than last spring, it’s impossible to argue that they are deeper and more experienced than the Red Wings who continue to get scoring from all four lines, play excellent overall team defence and have a defence that though not exactly young, is dominating (when healthy) in its own zone.

In truth that’s where the battle is likely to be won or lost. Pittsburgh’s defence is the same, maybe even a tad slower than last spring when it had Ryan Whitney in the mix. Veteran Philippe Boucher can deliver a la Whitney with shots from the point, but he’s not as game-steady and controlling and there’s no one on the Pittsburgh blueline who can match the incomparable Lidstrom.

The Pens must also deal with the psychological loss of Marian Hossa who jumped their ranks after the failed outing last spring and signed with the Red Wings in a bet to further his chances of winning the Cup. That’s expected to provide motivation for the Pens, but it will provide offence for the Wings and in a tight series one really good player can make a difference.

So who wins?

Let’s be honest, without knowing the true injury situation for either side it’s impossible to know. The two teams are close enough in talent and the Pens appear to have grown in terms of mental toughness to the point that even if they aren’t on a par with the Red Wings they’re not likely to be intimidated by them.

That makes it a tossup in my book, but if I had to bet I wouldn’t bet against the Penguins.

They are hungry, they are good, they are motivated and they are led by Crosby who just might be the mentally toughest player still alive in the postseason.

No guarantees, but the Pens are good enough and the Red Wings are just banged up enough that this time the series could go a different way.