Jim Kelley

Jim Kelley writes regularly on the NHL for Sportsnet.ca and can be heard on Primetime Sports on the FAN590.

Mike Keenan may never coach in the NHL again due only to the lack of openings.

Is this the year?

It was a popular marketing phrase just a little while ago as the National Hockey League sought to maximize its many assets in a series of commercials asking whether or not "this could be the year" when certain players and teams excelled, certain records might fall and certain rivalries, especially among the Original Six, 12, 18, 21 etc. might redevelop and reignite some long-simmering fan interest.

What the campaign never addressed was whether or not that year, or any year, might be the year in which no NHL coach was fired during the course of the season.

Understandable, though history shows that for decades now somewhere between five and eight head coaches get whacked during the season or in the days leading up to the end of it, when management of a failing team goes about the ages-old tradition of selling hope via a coaching change.

Last season the number was seven; kicking off with the dismissal of Denis Savard in Chicago just four games into the season and ending with the still inexplicable firing of Guy Carbonneau in Montreal.

In between those dark days for those who believe French Canadians are the subjects of discrimination in the NHL, the firing squad claimed Barry Melrose in Tampa Bay, Stanley Cup-winning coach Peter Laviolette in Carolina, Craig Hartsburg in Ottawa, Michel Therrien of the then Stanley Cup runner-up Pittsburgh Penguins, and Tom Renney of the New York Rangers.

Oddly enough, the massive turnover from last season gave rise to the thought that with so many new faces behind the benches that this might be the season when no NHL coach got the in-season whack.

After all, the coaches who were relatively secure because of performance -- and Buffalo's Lindy Ruff with 12 seasons behind the bench in that city heads that list -- seemed safe. The majority of the in-season hires had some success in improving the fortunes of their new teams and that, in most cases, led to contract extensions.

Since secure contracts and the cost of paying them off are the No. 1 reason why coaches have job security in the NHL, it looked like at least a better than even chance that this might be the year the NHL goes through a full 82-game slate without an in-season change behind the bench.

The argument was bolstered by the fact that there weren't even all that many coaching "legends" sitting in studios waiting for the recall to action. Mike Keenan is doing that, but it would appear his time has come and gone in the NHL and his last stop, Calgary, may well be his last stop in the NHL. Laviolette has a gig and so does Sportsnet's own Doug MacLean. Both are respected for their accomplishments, but neither could rightly be called the second coming of Scott Bowman. Barry Melrose is back at ESPN, but then he was there for nearly 13 years before the Lightning ownership pulled him out of the studio for a mere 16 games. That's not the kind of resume that intrigues an owner looking to sell a whole whack of unsold tickets.

Throw in the fact that veteran coach Pat Quinn finally found a gig (in Edmonton during the offseason) and veteran Dave Tippett replaced Wayne Gretzky in Phoenix (with some success so far) and, well, it just seemed as if this truly would be the year.

Not any more.

The list of coaches in trouble is not long, but it is real.

Here's the Sportsnet quarter-pole assessment of coaches in trouble and a prediction as to how they might fare.

Paul Maurice, Carolina:

Maurice, who took over for the fired Laviolette in Carolina, heads the list by virtue of the fact that going into Thursday's game against the Maple Leafs, the 'Canes were in last place overall (by virtue of those same Maple Leafs having a game in hand). That's not good, especially for a team with a roster essentially unchanged from the one that posted victories in two playoff rounds last spring. But Maurice does have some things working for him. For one, he's tight with general manager Jim Rutherford, a relationship both men have described as almost father-son like. That helps, and so does the fact the Canes have a reputation for being an up and down team in consecutive seasons and that they have some significant injuries, especially in goal. Netminder Cam Ward is largely the reason the Canes have success in any season. Given his injury problems, Rutherford's comfort level with Maurice and the fact that it would be hard to argue that given that the roster is largely the same it's hard to blame the coach who had so much success last spring, Maurice would appear to be safe at least for now.

Ron Wilson, Toronto:

You can make a case in Toronto - and some in the media already have - that Wilson is the wrong man for the Leafs as presently constituted. You would also be wrong. Wilson has his shortcomings and his acerbic dealings with media don't win him many friends, but he is a strong teaching coach and that's what the Leafs need right now. The Leafs are vying with the 'Canes for last overall and that's why he's on this list. Also working against him is that he was put behind the bench by Cliff Fletcher before current GM Brian Burke came on board, but that's balanced by the fact that Wilson and Burke are close friends and old college teammates and will be together guiding the fortunes of Team USA at the Vancouver Olympics. It certainly makes for an awkward situation to take Wilson off the Toronto bench and then have to work hand in hand with him in Vancouver. Also working for Wilson is that Burke doesn't fire coaches in season and, if you're a conspiracy theorist, you might believe Wilson actually was Burke's choice, he just couldn't voice it to anyone while he was negotiating his exit from the Anaheim Ducks. Wilson appears safe for now and we would argue that as long as he keeps the team out of the draft lottery, he's safe for the season.

Randy Carlyle, Anaheim Ducks:

This is an intriguing one. Carlyle is one of those coaches who appears to have a short shelf life with players. He's a good coach, but a demanding one, and coaches like that tend to lose their voice with the players at some point. Being third last overall after having a strong performance in the playoffs last spring also works against Carlyle and if it appears he's the problem, GM Bob Murray won't hesitate to fire him, especially if he calculates that a change behind the bench could ignite a climb up the standings and into the playoffs. But Carlyle, too, has cards to play. The Ducks have undergone major changes to get younger; they did it late last season at the trade deadline and still Carlyle excelled. They did it again in the offseason, moving Chris Pronger among others. In short, Murray knew there would be challenges and so did Carlyle. The view from here is that the coach will get all the time he needs to work through them.

Todd Richards, Minnesota Wild:

There's a reason Jacques Lemaire left the Wild at the end of last season and joined the New Jersey Devils. He knew that with a change in the GM chair (Doug Risebrough out, Chuck Fletcher in) and a change in ownership, that he would not be secure. He also knew that the team was failing and one could argue he simply jumped before he was pushed. That could leave Richards as this season's Craig Hartsburg, but don't bet on it. Richards is Fletcher's hand-picked coach and the two have a history together in the AHL. He's also a Minnesota boy with deep roots in the hockey community there. Given that and the lower expectations, especially given the departure of star player Marian Gaborik to the New York Rangers, Richards should be safe unless owner Craig Leipold inserts himself into the equation and demands change because of the need for playoff revenue.

Andy Murray, St. Louis Blues:

Another coach who carries a short shelf life reputation among players. One could argue that Murray is this decade's Robbie Ftorek, but he performed a minor miracle last season in getting the Blues from last place in the West at Christmas to a playoff berth and a noteworthy first-round effort (four straight but competitive losses) against a superior Vancouver team. Team president John Davidson knows the climb back to respectability is an up and down hike and he's not likely to pull the plug on Murray unless the team quits on him. Though there have been some bumps in the relationship between the coach and his largely young team, so far at least that has not been the case.

Pete DeBoer, Florida Panthers:

There are ownership issues in Florida and that's never a good thing for a coach, but DeBoer is an acclaimed young coach who seems to finally have the Panthers moving forward despite the constant sell off of prime talent and now a serious concussion injury to David Booth, arguably their brightest young star. They once again do not appear to be a playoff team and they play a game that would bore even Jacques Lemaire, but they play hard for DeBoer and that's all new ownership can ask or afford.

Jacques Martin, Montreal:

A GM who fires his new-hire coach doesn't usually last long. It's also not likely that will happen, but then there is new ownership in Montreal and though the Molson family both likes and respects what Gainey did there as a player, they have no real allegiance to him as the GM or to Martin, the coach he hired in a move that still puzzles most.. Gainey could be in trouble at the end of the season and one could argue that he might make a coaching move just to try to keep his GM job, but then if you really know Bob Gainey you know that he would never do such a thing, he is simply too upstanding to resort to cheap tricks. Now if he thinks a different coach could get this club to the playoffs, well, he might just do that.

Alain Vigneault, Vancouver:

The Canucks are a team of which much is expected, but injuries are causing serious problems. GM Mike Gillis knows that, that's why Vigneault will get a long leash even after his walking wounded return. Still, Gillis didn't hire Vigneault and he's got a lot of money invested in these players along with demanding ownership and a demanding fan base; being outside the playoff club late in November is not a good thing. Still, it says here that Vigneault has done an exceptional job keeping the Canucks in contention through a rash of physical setbacks, never really losing touch with a Western Conference that isn't all that great with the exception of the runaway San Jose Sharks

Barry Trotz, Nashville:

He's had a long run with GM David Poile and his detractors might argue that it's time for change just for the sake of change, but Poile never subscribes to that tactic. Poile also recognizes that Trotz does a lot with a little, especially a very little in terms of offensive might. Ownership, which knows as much about running a hockey team as I do about running a medical insurance operation, could make a push for change because the Preds always need playoff money, but to handcuff Poile would be an open invitation for him to leave and they certainly can't afford to lose their singular VIP. Trotz is safe until Poile says otherwise.

Summing up, maybe this could be the year where no in-season coaching changes are made. There are good and reasonable arguments to keep every coach mentioned above, the problem is that never happens.

There are no Savards or Melroses on the firing horizon, but we'll make this prediction: as of this writing five of the six Canadian-based teams are outside the playoff house. If that's the same situation around the time of the usual all-star break (because of the Olympics there is no all-star game this year) it's a safe bet one or more of them will be replaced. It won't be fair and it won't be deserved, but if I were Alain Vigneault or Bob Gainey and my team was in that spot, I'd be worried that this might not be my year.