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Stanley Cup final preview: Blackhawks
Our columnists are putting it all on the line for this Stanley Cup final.In one corner, we have Mike Brophy's long connection to Philadelphia Flyers defenceman Chris Pronger leading him to take the Flyers in six.
In the other corner, we have Mark Spector's long connection to Chicago's nightlife prompting his pick of the Blackhawks to win its first Cup in 49 years.
The winner will receive a lovely bottle of the spirit of his choice, while we, as the house, will take our customary rake of a bottle of 10-year-old Laphraoig.
We'd say may the best man win, but as long as we get our Scotch, we really don't care.
BY MARK SPECTOR
sportsnet.ca
To get your head around how the Chicago Blackhawks find themselves on the verge of erasing the National Hockey League’s longest, single-franchise Stanley Cup drought, you’ve got to go back six seasons. To the season that wasn’t — the lockout of 2004-05.
Chicago had missed the playoff six of the past seven seasons, and would not qualify for three more years to come. The lowly 'Hawks hadn’t won a playoff series in a decade, while at the same time, the National Hockey League had seen its product decline in similar fashion.
Right about then — in June of ’05 — Dale Tallon was hired as the eighth general manager in Blackhawks history. Who knew what he knew?
While other GMs were carrying out misguided theories on how to build a roster under the new salary cap — hello John Ferguson Jr. — trying to decide upon what type of player would thrive in the new game, Tallon slowly began building the old fashioned way.
After two years of seasoning in the minors, he decided it was time that Duncan Keith bought a house in Chicago. Brent Seabrook and Dustin Byfuglien were promoted as well, playing their first NHL games that season. Then Tallon made that one-sided deal that burns the Flyers to this day, getting Patrick Sharp for one Matt Ellison and a 3rd Round pick.
In the summer of ‘06 Tallon would draft Jonathan Toews at No. 3 overall. Then Patrick Kane in ’07.
Today, Chicago is the fastest, most skilled team in hockey, deep in talent, toughness, grit and finish. They are the blue print for the Competition Committee that drafted the overhaul of the NHL’s product during that lost season, and as such, will be copied by every Florida, Edmonton and Islanders club that is in search of a template.
Why will Chicago make relatively easy work of the Philadelphia Flyers, contrary to what that misguided scribe Mike Brophy would tell you?
Because they are faster, deeper, every bit as tough or tougher, and have better goaltending than Philly, with apologies to one of our favorite stories of this spring, Mike Leighton.
Chicago has played better playoff opponents, spent the season in a vastly better Conference, and against that superior competition managed to win 11 more games than Philadelphia in 2009-10.
Or, you can think of it this way: If Chicago was playing the 12th best team in the West, who would you pick in this series? Well, that’s where Philly’s 88 points would have placed them out West — just behind Anaheim and slightly ahead of Dallas.
In short, the Flyers are Cinderella, sneaking into the post-season via shootout after Game 82. The Blackhawks are the real thing; losers in the Conference Final last season who clawed its way right back to make the next step 12 months later.
This is “Plan A” versus “Flash In The Pan.”
If it goes six, we’ll be surprised.
FORWARDS: On its second line, Chicago plays Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp.
On its third line, the Blackhawks give you the premier pest in these playoffs, Dave Bolland, who has five goals and 10 points while sending both Daniel Sedin and Joe Thornton running to their therapist’s couch after a series of mental torment that got the better of both men.
And the third most dangerous player on the top line would likely be Dustin Byfuglien. And hasn’t he been a factor so far this spring?
In short, the Chicago forward ranks are deep, deep, deep — with considerable size throughout the lineup. Hossa’s production has been down, but he is as strong as they come on the puck. The 6-3 Tomas Kopecky mans the other wing.
Andrew Ladd, who has an undisclosed arm injury, is big, mean and burly on the third line with Bolland and Kris Versteeg. Byfuglien is the original Immovable Object. Troy Brouwer is employed in various spot throughout the forward lines. He is also a brute who can play some.
And, of course, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane carry the sticks that stir this Madison Avenue Margarita. When ‘Hawks coach Joel Quenneville gets his matchup and puts Bolland on Richards, we suspect Toews will eat the diminutive Danny Briere alive.
DEFENCE: The biggest difference here is depth:
While the Flyers have four players who average over 24 minutes per game, Chicago has five who average more than 18 minutes. So the load is spread around a tad more on the Blackhawks blue-line, among a younger group.
Chicago’s Top 3 minute-wise — Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and Niklas Hjalmarsson — average 24.6 years of age. Philly’s Top 3 — Pronger, Kimo Timmonen and Marr Carle — average out at 31.6.
You can say that with age comes experience. But you could argue that experience is a wash, when you consider that Keith and Seabrook were every bit as prominent as Pronger at the Winter Games and have a lot less miles on them. Keith is likely going to win the Norris Trophy, and alongside Seabrook, this is arguably the best defensive pairing in the NHL today.
Clearly, it is a pair the likes of which Mike Richards line has not seen yet in this post-season.
GOALTENDING: “The playing field is even.” — Mike Brophy.
Huh?
Antti Niemi had seven shutouts in 35 starts this regular season — none against the pop-gun attack of the Montreal Canadiens. He has two more this spring, has won three series for the Blackhawks and posted a .921 saves percentage against considerably superior opposition than the one faced by Mike Leighton for all of five games this spring.
It is true, neither of these two have ever been in this situation before. But let’s just say one of them is going to find himself in over his head. For the sake of argument, let’s agree that either Niemi or Leighton is going to go into his summer wondering if that pre-Finals success was all a dream.
Which guy do you think it is going to be?
The guy who had a stellar regular season, posting a shutout every fifth start? The guy who beat the No. 1 and 3 seeds in the West?
Or will it be Leighton, a great story and seemingly a real deserving guy, who at age 29 has finally found a place in the sun?
By the time Byfuglien is done with Leighton, we’re betting the answer is obvious.
POWERPLAY: Here is where the depth on Chicago’s blue-line comes into play. Namely, Brian Campbell.
Having a player of Campbell’s stature on your second pairing is akin to having Hossa on your second line. And come powerplay time, what that means is the powerplay doesn’t suffer when Keith and Seabrook are on the bench.
Campbell is one of the better D-men in hockey at gaining the zone. He can shoot it, pass it, and make solid use of Byfuglien’s work at the top of the crease.
Down low, Toews and Sharp have been deadly. Kane has become an excellent puck retriever, and Keith quarterbacks the entire production like Joe Montana. This far, the Blackhawks have the PP edge over Philly in the playoffs, 22.6% to 20.7%.
Philadelphia took 17 more minors however — 87-70 — through the first three rounds.
PENALTY KILL: Not much to chose from: Philly ranks second at 87%, while Chicago is next at 86.6%.
The Blackhawks had the fourth best PK unit all season at 85.3%, but most importantly, were the third best faceoff team in the league this season at 52.4%. (Philly was 13th at 50.1%.) Faceoff wins make killing penalties a lot easier, of course.
John Madden comes into play here, as a fourth-line centre that has made a career out of killing penalties in the post-season. Brent Sopel is a key shot-blocker, another stat where the Flyers and Blackhawks are neck and neck, ranked 2nd and 3rd behind Montreal this post-season.
COACHING: In his second season with Chicago, Quenneville has total confidence in his roster and his own ability to employ it. He’s a tough-love kind of guy, and seems to know just when to give back to a player like Byfuglien the same rope he had used to hang himself in regular seasons past.
Quenneville has coached over 1,000 games, and watched last year as his charges were taught a valuable lesson in the Conference Finals by Detroit. He has slowly worked some consistency into a young lineup that has struggled to find the same level every night. With just four more wins to go, that element shouldn’t be a problem anymore.
CONN SMYTH CANDIDATE: This one is easy: Jonathan Toews.
He leads the playoffs in scoring with 7-19-26, has taken only two minor penalties all spring and has three game-winners. And he does it all while averaging 20:48 of ice time each night, nearly three minutes less than Ilya Kovalchuk and Sidney Crosby were employed.
Captain Serious is one serious leader, and proved as much when he outshone many senior teammates at the Olympics in Vancouver. This one will be a landslide vote: When Chicago wins the Cup, Toews will get the Conn Smythe.
PREDICTION: It is easy to watch the Flyers emerge over Montreal, with some big-time performances from different players throughout their lineup, and think that maybe this is the team that has the answer to what has been a tour de force out West for Chicago.
But beating the Kitty-bar-the-door Canadiens in five isn’t anything close to disposing of the San Jose Sharks in four straight. Vancouver is a faster team than Boston, and still they couldn’t keep up with the Blackhawks, while Philly needed a comeback for the ages to defeat the Bruins.
The West has been far superior to the East all season long. This is where that fact comes home to roost.
Chicago in five.
Mike Brophy on the Eastern Conference representatives from Philadelphia. | Full article