The Leafs and Senators are both in re-build mode, but which franchise is in better shape moving forward?
On Monday, Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Ron Wilson stood at the podium at the Air Canada Centre and announced that his club was only two or three pieces away from being a Stanley Cup contender.
At almost the exact same time, 400 kilometres to the east, Ottawa Senators general manager Bryan Murray was suggesting that his club could have made some serious noise if they qualified for the playoffs this season, given their strong finish.
So despite both Ontario teams missing the playoffs in the same year for just the second time ever (2008-09 was the other season), there appears to be genuine optimism surrounding each club going into the off-season. And while we won't be able to see a Leafs-Sens playoff match-up this spring, we can try to fire up the Battle of Ontario with a debate over which team has the better pieces going forward for a re-build.
Here's a breakdown:
Forwards: There is no denying that Jason Spezza is the most talented forward on either roster. At the age of 27, Spezza has matured and evolved into a legitimate first-line centre -- which is exactly what the Maple Leafs are lacking.
However, the Leafs are now in possession of a number of highly-skilled wingers -- which is exactly what the Senators need. Phil Kessel is a consistent and legitimate 30-goal scorer and one of the best 10 snipers in the NHL. And this season, Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin had productive years and both players are still in their mid-twenties. Toss in Nazem Kadri -- who is a better high-end forward prospect than Ottawa currently has in their system -- and the Leafs’ scoring depth up front seems superior to the Senators.
Edge: Toronto
Defence: Luke Schenn and Dion Phaneuf are two defencemen who the Leafs can build around for years to come. Phaneuf really seemed to thrive in his role as leader and power play specialist after the trade deadline. And 21-year-old Keith Aulie looks like he can be a legitimate top-four defenceman down the road.
Next season, the Senators’ blue line will be patrolled by 30-somethings like Chris Phillips, Sergei Gonchar and Filip Kuba. But beyond that, the Senators have one of the deepest collections of talented young defencemen in the Eastern Conference. While he can sometimes be a riverboat gambler, there is no denying the offensive upside of Erik Karlsson. And newcomers Jared Cowen and David Rundblad will enter the NHL picture next season with high expectations. Rundblad is expected to crack the top-six next season in Ottawa, after being the top defenceman in the Swedish Elite League in 2011. In three years from now, the Sens are hoping to have a young defensive core that is similar to the one Nashville has right now.
Edge: Ottawa
Goaltending: Two months ago, if I would have told you the Senators would have an edge in goaltending on the Leafs, I'm not sure that I would have believed it myself. But the acquisition of Craig Anderson has been a game-changer for Ottawa. Last season, he merited serious consideration for the Vezina Trophy in Colorado. And in his 18 games with the Sens this season, he posted impressive statistics including a .939 save percentage. By locking up Anderson to a four-year deal, the Sens should finally have some stability in net. For those of you who don't think Anderson is a proven commodity, consider this: Anderson has a .919 save percentage in the past four seasons, putting him on par with Pekka Rinne and Jonas Hiller. (All three have played pretty much the same number of games over that time span).
James Reimer appears to be the real deal in Toronto, but we don't have enough of a body of work to accurately predict how he might fare with a 60-game workload. And for this reason, I'm giving the edge in goal to the Senators.
Edge: Ottawa
-
Poll
-
Which team is in better shape moving forward?
Coaching: This was actually the easiest of the comparisons, because the Sens don't have a head coach right now. Say what you want about Wilson, but he certainly got the most out of his group in the second half of the season. Wilson is now actually one of the longest-tenured coaches in the Eastern Conference, having been in his position longer than the likes of John Tortorella, Dan Bylsma, Jacques Martin and Peter Laviolette. There is something to be said for stability behind the bench and the Leafs players should know exactly what to expect next fall when they come to training camp. For the Senators, it will be another exercise in getting to know a new coach and his system in September.
Edge: Toronto
General Manager: These general managers have made their fair share of mistakes, but both appear to have their teams headed towards a positive re-build right now. Burke traded away multiple picks for Kessel, but has been able to obtain two late first-round picks in this year's draft. And as noted above, the Leafs have plenty of young pieces in place to build around.
Murray has stockpiled a number of high picks for the upcoming NHL Entry Draft after blowing up the core of his team two months ago. Both have made mistakes on the free agent market, with Alex Kovalev's two-year deal in Ottawa being the worst of the bunch. And while both general managers don't warrant high marks, they also don't deserve to be criticized as much as they have been by their own fan bases. In the big scheme of things, both general managers have their teams headed in the right direction.
Edge: Even
Cap Space & Other Intangibles: After the great salary dump in February, the Senators finally have a significant amount of cap space to play with this summer. Ottawa should have about $19 million to spend, if the cap goes up to the projected $62 million for next season. But don't expect Ottawa to use much of that money to land any big-name free agents. For the first time in the Eugene Melnyk era, the Sens will not be spending to the cap.
For their part, the Leafs’ cap situation is even brighter than Ottawa's -- they have only $38 million committed for next season. That means Brian Burke can go big-game hunting with almost $24 million in his pocket. They would love to target Brad Richards or a first-line centre of that calibre. The Leafs can also circle around cap-heavy teams and try and pick up some spare parts that they cannot afford. The Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins and Calgary Flames could all be in a similar situation to the Blackhawks last season. And with Wilson declaring that his team is two or three pieces short of being a contender, he's given Burke a mandate to land those pieces this summer.
Edge: Toronto
Overall Analysis: This comparison is actually pretty even -- maybe with a slight edge to the Maple Leafs. Both of these teams could very well miss the playoffs in 2012, but the prospects for competing in the future appear to be bright. Toronto will have more pressure to make the playoffs next season, given their long post-season drought. And while Leafs and Sens fans can't agree on much, let's all admit this: We can't wait for the next playoff edition of the Battle of Ontario so we don't have to fire up the rivalry with paper comparisons of the two organizations.
