If one thing is certain at the NHL Entry Draft, it's the uncertainty in picking the right prospect.
The great thing about the NHL Entry Draft is the uncertainty of it all.
You take a look at each year's draft class and you hold it up against others from the past to see how it compares. But you can never really make an exact comparison right away. It is so subjective.
This year, for example, there is no clear-cut No. 1 choice even though many feel that honour will fall to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Nobody doubts the kid's skill and creativity, but some wonder if he is NHL-ready. Can he -- like Taylor Hall last year, John Tavares the year before and Steven Stamkos the year before that -- make the jump to the NHL?
There's no guarantee Nugent-Hopkins will go first on Friday. The Edmonton Oilers have the No. 1 pick and with so many young, medium-sized forwards on their roster already, they might opt to take highly-regarded defenceman Adam Larsson. Or they could trade the pick for a more experienced forward with decent size. Or they could take another forward, say Gabriel Landeskog or Sean Couturier or Jonathan Huberdeau. We shall see.
Some years it's easy to spot the No. 1 pick. There was no doubt in 2005 that the Pittsburgh Penguins would choose Sidney Crosby. It was the same thing in 1991 when the Quebec Nordiques selected Eric Lindros with the top pick and in 1984 when the Penguins chose Mario Lemieux first overall.
It's not like that every year, though. In 1996 there was no consensus No. 1 pick and the Ottawa Senators settled for defenceman Chris Phillips. He has had a decent NHL career, to be sure, but you wonder if Ottawa had to do it again using 20-20 hindsight, might they have gone with Zdeno Chara who was drafted 56th overall by the New York Islanders? Funny thing is, they eventually wound up with Chara and let him go to keep Wade Redden. Makes you wonder what it is about the 6-foot-9 defenceman the Senators don't care for?
Some years, it's a real toss-up as to who will be picked first. In 2004, the Washington Capitals selected Alexander Ovechkin No. 1, but had they picked Evgeni Malkin, who went second to Pittsburgh, it would not have been a bad choice. In 2001, the recently-relocated Atlanta Thrashers picked Ilya Kovalchuk with the first pick allowing the Ottawa Senators to take Jason Spezza with the next pick. Go way back to 1988 when Mike Modano was the top pick to the Minnesota North Stars and had they picked Trevor Linden, who went second to the Vancouver Canucks, they probably would have been happy.
It isn't easy to screw up with the first overall pick, but it has happened. Perhaps the most notable is when the Senators took Alexandre Daigle with the first pick prior to their initial season. Daigle was a scoring superstar with Victoriaville in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League and being a Francophone, seemed to be the logical choice for Ottawa. He was a good player, but was never able to translate his junior success into NHL stardom. The Senators could have had Chris Pronger, who was picked second by the Hartford Whalers and has had a Hall of Fame career, Paul Kariya (fourth to Anaheim), Rob Niedermayer (fifth to Florida), Jason Arnott (seventh to Edmonton), Saku Koivu (21st to Montreal) or Todd Bertuzzi (23rd to the Islanders).
The Thrashers went with Patrik Stefan No. 1 overall in 1999 and he was an unadulterated bust. As true as it is that ’99 was not a great draft year, there was some talent available. In fact, it has been said one of the great draft catches of all-time happened that year when the Detroit Red Wings chose Henrik Zetterberg with the 210th pick. Henrik freaking Zetterberg!
The fact is the Red Wings have a great reputation for pulling rabbits out of a hat at the draft. The Wings drafted Pavel Datsyuk 171st overall in 1998 and he is a sure-fire Hall of Famer. They also took Jonathan Ericsson 291st in 2002 and Darren Helm 132nd in 2005.
That's the thing about the draft: You can't really judge it until years later. That is when some of the hidden gems start to shine. Doug Gilmour was something of an afterthought when he was chosen 134th by the St. Louis Blues and he turned out to be one of the great late picks of all-time. Same with Steve Larmer, chosen 120th by the Chicago Blackhawks in 1980.
What story will this year's draft tell? Check back 10 years from now and we'll let you know.
