The David Booth trade is a ground rule double for Vancouver GM Mike Gillis if Booth scores 25 goals, 50 points, and pulls that gnarly plus-minus back up to respectability.
If the Canucks get the pre-concussion Booth - a 30-goal force coming hard off the wing - then it's a home run for Gillis, who only parted with the much-travelled Marco Sturm and a good but oft-injured Mikael Samuelsson to make the deal.
So we've spent parts of the past few days speaking with people - scouts, a GM, even some media types - who have watched Booth more closely and for a longer time than have we over the years. Let's face it: How often do you sit back in a Northwest Division town, fix some popcorn, and watch a Florida Panthers game?
Not often enough, at least for us, to get a proper read on a guy like Booth. So we asked around, and if you boiled the comments and evaluations of this deal down to one statement, it would be:
Do the Canucks get the 32-goal Booth, who recklessly went to the net with and without the puck every night? Or, do they get post-Mike Richards Booth? The one whose game has shifted to the perimeter on enough nights that Dale Tallon and the Panthers wanted out from under his big contract?
"Well, I guess that's the $60 million question," laughed a Western Conference scout.
Actually, for the Canucks it's only a $17 million question - spread out over four seasons. And really, that's why Canucks GM Mike Gillis has buffered his club nicely with this deal.
Sturm has played nearly 900 NHL games on six teams. He's a solid vet, but one who is slowing down. In short, he is entirely replaceable.
Samuelsson we like a lot. Remember, he was a walking, talking infusion of that championship Detroit Red wings dressing room sitting in a stall at the end of the room near the Sedin twins. However, he had two seasons and a bit in Vancouver to pass along his experience, and the harsh reality is he is now a soon-to-be 35-year-old winger recovering from a serious abdominal injury. We predict Florida will deal him at the deadline to a Pittsburgh, San Jose or even back to Detroit, perhaps for the third-round draft pick they gave up in the Booth deal.
Steve Reinprecht's $2 million salary to play in the American Hockey League? That's the Canucks owner throwing in the profits from one playoff gate to make the deal happen - which is no small inclusion.
This brings us to Booth, the soon-to-be 27-year-old left winger around whom this trade will be judged. Through his first two games, both Canucks losses, he's still finding his way next to Ryan Kesler and Chris Higgins: no points, minus-2, seven shots on goal.
The obvious angle is how can he not be a better player when surrounded by a vastly superior roster in Vancouver? Playing next to Kesler may draw Booth back into the areas he has somewhat vacated in the wake of two serious concussions.
"The way to get there is by playing physical, by getting to the front of the net, by playing good defensively," Booth said. "There are things that accomplish those goals, versus just saying, 'I want to score.' There are skills to work on, and that's what I've addressed in the off-season.
"I want to get back to where I was a couple of years ago, and even exceed those (numbers). I have expectations for myself that are higher than anyone else's."
That's easy to say, but Booth has never felt a Canucks fan's scorn.
He's been feeling his way through his first two games on a new team, which is understandable. But Booth's numbers through eight games of the 2011-12 season read poorly: 0-1-0, minus-8 and just two PIMs.
That doesn't sound much like a guy who's going to the dirty areas, or hard to the net. In a Canadian market, you get by on production, not projection. He'll have to pick up his game to be accepted at Rogers Arena, and he knows it.
"Expectations here are higher than in other places. I'm ready to take the challenge," Booth said. "It's definitely going to be a different experience. This is polar opposite, night and day difference from Florida to here. It's pretty cool. There is a lot expected of us here, and actually that's what I'm excited about."
So are the Canucks, who look to have made a nice deal here.
Mark Spector is the senior columnist on sportsnet.ca
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