What we know going into the New Year’s Eve showdown between Canada and the U.S. at the World Junior Hockey Championship:
One: These look like the two strongest teams in the tournament.
Two: Zach Fucale deserves the start in goal against the U.S. He had a great view and no action against Slovakia in the tournament opener, making it impossible to evaluate him. Eric Comrie saw a little more action in against the Germans but Fucale had to be very good in the second period against Finland, making six red-letter stops when the game was very much hanging in the balance. Fucale has throughout the proceedings here seemed the epitome of cool—in-demeanour, he reminds me of Carey Price going back to the WJC in Leksand. Going with Comrie is counter-intuitive at this point — bespeaks a lack of Coach Benoit Groulx’s confidence in Fucale that’s founded on some poor play in the QMJHL and nothing he’s done since he reported to the under-20s camp a few weeks back.
Three: Samuel Morin is not going to see any ice outside of mop-up time or only in the event of an injury. Not after a brutal, unforced turnover led to the Finns’ single goal last night. I don’t doubt that Morin will develop into a useful pro but he’s a work in progress. He’s probably not where Tyler Myers was back in ’09 and Myers took a regular shift and still made you nervous every other shift.
Four: Max Domi is a great junior but even better when he’s agitated. Defenceman Julius Honka tackled and pinned Domi for about a count of 20 behind the play deep in the Finnish end of the rink. Domi’s frustration was plain. Rather than retaliate with a slash or elbow, Mad Max got to his skates, raced to get onside and started a three-way passing play that finished off with Sam Reinhart’s second goal, the winner on the night.
Five: Nick Ritchie got his wake-up call. Honka — don’t mean to pick on him — took a good 20-foot run at the big Peterborough winger. Mistake. Give Honka points for courage if not judgment as he gives away at least three inches and around 30 pounds. Not surprise that he bounced off Ritchie, who didn’t seem to brace himself or, for that matter, even notice. Probably a good thing. He could have lowered the boom on the Finn and been called for a penalty, the type of groundless call that would be made in these tournaments but never in major junior. Thereafter Ritchie seemed more engaged skating alongside Connor McDavid and Curtis Lazar — though Jake Virtanen took a shift or two in Ritchie’s stead. I’ve taken some flak about having Ritchie at No. 3 in the Sportsnet Magazine’s draft preview last spring, ahead of Virtanen and Oshawa’s Michael Dal Colle. Right now, Virtanen is an understudy here and Dal Colle didn’t make the roster. You’re entirely welcome.
Six: We’re going to hear all about this game next June when Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel will be headlining the draft but really their contest of merits and the No. 1 pick doesn’t ride on their performances in the last game of the opening round or if they meet again in the final. The game is far more meaningful for Noah Hanifin and Lawson Crouse. Hanifin, the mobile Boston College blueliner, is the morning-line favourite to be the third name on most NHL scouts’ lists of draft-eligible players — I word this carefully because it would be premature to presume that his will be the third name called, especially if it’s Buffalo owning No. 3 overall, a likely scenario they way the standings sit. Not an area that Sabres GM Tim Murray is looking to address. That’s where Crouse, the big Kingston forward is ostensibly a fourth-liner on this Canadian team, comes in. Scouts I talked to this week are saying that Crouse could be the Sabres’ play if the Wonder Boys are tapped by, say, Edmonton and Carolina. (Scouts also figure that the big Czech centre Pavel Zacha of Sarnia wouldn’t be Murray’s type of player, but I’d be less confident in saying that.) The trick would then be to extract any value from that No. 3 pick. Would Crouse be there at No. 5 or No. 6? There are too many moving parts right now to project it.
Seven: Sonny Milano is a skills demon, a pure sniper. The Slovaks held the U.S. scoreless deep into the second period but with a couple of minutes before the intermission the Plymouth Whaler/Columbus 2014 first-rounder came down the left wing and ripped a top-corner shot that was in and out in a blink. Milano looks pretty scrawny at this stage, probably not ready to play in the NHL next season without some physical risk, but maybe the Blue Jackets find a way to beef him up and spot him next fall. As it stands he provides needed scoring support behind Eichel and Minnesota draft pick Alex Tuch.
Eight: I’d say Auston Matthews, the 2016 draft-eligible, has looked every bit as good and probably better than McDavid and Eichel did at the same stage. Scouts consider him a less skilled player than the other two, but he has great size and is hard for 19-year-olds to push off the puck. McDavid’s and Eichel’s ceilings are much higher, but Matthews plays a heavier game that serves him well in this format. He’s been better and better every game that I’ve seen him, going back to their last pre-tournament game, a rout of Sweden in Kingston December 23.
Nine: Sweden or Russia have reason to dread a match-up with the Finns. The defending champions have only three goals to show for three games and need a win over Germany to avoid the ninth-place game and total humiliation. Still, they’re a pain to play against and those three goals aren’t much of an indication of the number of chances they’ve generated. The relative merits of the Canadians, Americans, Russians and Swedes is to be determined but I’d make a case that the Finns would go into the quarter-finals as the best team to come out of a group as a fourth seed. I’d give them every chance of advancing to the semis.
Ten: The only thing better than seeing the Canadian and U.S. teams on New Year’s Eve would be seeing them again in the final. As far as this goes, the first instalment isn’t a great predictor of how things can play out in international tournaments. Canada fairly routed the U.S. team in an opening-round game in Sweden back in ’07. In fact, that American team with Patrick Kane was life or death just to make the knockout round (check facts). It then had to claw their way through OT to beat the U.S. in the semi-final shootout, Jonathan Toews’s shining moment. In other words, save your irrational exuberance or reflexive gloom for later. When the ball drops, it marks not just the start of the New Year but the WJC as well.