Should he stay or should he go? Can John Tavares provide more to the Oshawa Generals through trade than he can on the ice this season?
There's an interesting rumour floating around the Ontario Hockey League this season involving a possible blockbuster trade that could see the Canadian Hockey League's poster-boy, John Tavares, on the move.
While this rumour is nothing more than speculation at this point by arm-chair general managers throughout Canada, there are many reasons why trading John Tavares makes perfect sense for the Oshawa Generals.
The Generals were hit hard by junior graduation last season, just as most CHL teams inevitably are, but it appears as though the team has lost its window of opportunity to win with Tavares in their lineup. Although the Eastern Conference is considered wide-open, it appears with each passing day the Windsor Spitfires and London Knights are the cream of the OHL crop this season.
Although it would be unfair to write off the Generals' chances of winning the OHL this season, they're not considered to be in the same category as that of the Spitfires who have lost just once this season. Therefore, the question then becomes do the Generals have enough assets to build a team around Tavares that could win the league this season? Not without bankrupting their immediate future and even then there are no guarantees it would pay off.
The Generals had big plans for a championship last season. Several big trades were made to acquire players who are no longer with the team while they also lost out on their bid to host the Memorial Cup. With a new arena and the CHL's top player, Oshawa was regarded as a shoe-in to host the tournament. Perhaps losing out on the Memorial Cup was the first sign the Tavares and Oshawa marriage would not end with a championship.
As the consensus first overall pick for the upcoming National Hockey League draft, Tavares' OHL days are numbered at season's conclusion. Therefore, the situation can be quite similar to the NHL trade deadline where a team attempts to move its greatest asset knowing they will inevitably lose him to free agency.
After four seasons in the OHL, Tavares is no doubt ready to move up to the NHL. The 18-year-old sniper missed last summer's draft by just five days. As much as Stamkos appears to be a franchise player in the making, there's no doubt Tavares would be donning Tampa Bay's black, blue and white this season had he been eligible for the 2008 draft.
One can't help but wonder what the Generals would look like next season if they traded Tavares. With players such as Michael Del Zotto and Calvin de Haan returning, the Gens' young team might have a better chance at contending a year from now than this season. With that in mind, trading Tavares for players who will be able to take on bigger roles next season could help expedite their run at a championship.
The London Knights are the perfect example of a team that was able to do exactly that last season when they traded all-world goaltender Steve Mason. Knowing they wouldn't contend for the OHL championship last season, they traded Mason to the Kitchener Rangers for a package which included forwards Nazem Kadri, Phil Varone and defenceman Steven Tarasuk. Those three players have helped position London for another run at the OHL title this season that they likely would not have otherwise been able to do.
While Mason was considered the top goaltender in junior hockey last season, the return for the best player in junior hockey would no doubt be greater. Which, as Kitchener Rangers head coach and general manager Steve Spott said, would create another issue should the Generals decide to move him.
"Do you really get fair market value for a guy like John Tavares?" Spott asked. "He's the best player in Canada in his age group and you can bring in a number of young players or different-type players but at the same time, John is a very, very special player."
Should the Generals choose to trade Tavares, the number of teams who could fairly compensate Oshawa in a trade for their superstar are few and far between. Another factor to consider is that a trade of this magnitude would likely be with a non-conference rival, once again eliminating the amount of trading partners.
The most natural choices as trading partners would then become the Windsor Spitfires and London Knights. It's unlikely the Spitfires would be willing to rock the steadiest boat in all of Canada by making a trade of this magnitude. However, adding Tavares without losing too many vital pieces from their current roster would instantly make Windsor the favourite to win the Memorial Cup.
Many feel if the Knights are going to get back to the Memorial Cup this season they would need to make some additions to their team in order to beat the Spitfires. However, as good as London is this season they could be a dominant team with the amount of returning players they will have next season which begs the question as to whether they would want to sacrifice a possible championship next season for a run at one this season. Would the Knights be willing to move as many pieces as it would take to acquire the best player in the league?
"You'd be crazy not to be interested in good players but unless Oshawa was looking to move him, it's not something we certainly talk about," Knights assistant general manager Jim McKellar said. "He's an Oshawa General and I think the intention would be that he would be an Oshawa General for the rest of the season and it's up to them to decide."
Several sources have confirmed the Generals are not shopping Tavares, including the decision-maker himself, Chris DePiero. The Generals' head coach and general manager went as far as to say none of the other OHL teams have so much as inquired as to his availability.
"There are a lot of factors that would have to go into (trading Tavares)," DePiero said. "Right now, we as an organization haven't talked about it. We just approach things game-by-game and I think the bigger picture takes care of itself in the long haul. John's having a great time being an Oshawa General and leading this team at this point."
The sentiment was echoed by the star forward.
"I really hope it doesn't come to where I have to be traded," Tavares said. "I love being an Oshawa General. I've loved my first three years here.
"I really want to finish my career as a General. It was always my dream to start here and finish here so I really don't want to be traded."
Although neither party is receptive to the idea so far, things could very well change in a matter of months. Tavares will miss nearly a month of OHL action while representing Canada at the world junior tournament. Teammate Del Zotto could also be away at the world juniors which could then put the Generals in a bind to win hockey games.
Making matters even more interesting is that the CHL's Top Prospects Game will be held at the General Motors Centre in January, after the OHL's trade deadline. With this being known as the "John Tavares draft year" for the last four years, Oshawa might be less inclined to move Tavares knowing he would be wearing a different uniform and be introduced as a player from another team during the event.
There's no doubt Tavares will always be remembered as an Oshawa General. But accepting a trade could be another way for Tavares to endear himself to the Generals' faithful. Should he be traded to a team that would go on to win the OHL, Tavares would get his chance to not only win a championship and play in the coveted Memorial Cup, but give his beloved Generals the assets to do the same next season.
"I think there are certain players that should graduate from the program that they got drafted to and my honest opinion is John Tavares should graduate as an Oshawa General," Spott said.
It remains to be seen whether Tavares will go down as an Oshawa General in the hearts and memories of fans after a trade or by graduating from their program.
And while it's more likely, at this point, that he remains in Oshawa, one can't help but wonder if Tavares' worth to his team would be greater through trade than it is on the ice.
