Igor Panarin was not available for comment yesterday but I don't doubt that he fully expected and maybe even had predicted the most shocking result of this WJC. Panarin is not a player, not a coach, not a hockey executive. I'm not sure that he has ever been to a hockey game, though being based in Moscow he could catch CKSA vs Dynamo. No, Panarin, a fellow with KGB written right into his DNA, is the dean of the Kremlin's diplomatic academy and he has gained some small celebrity by advancing the theory that the United States will collapse by 2010. His definition of "collapse" entails, among other things, the obliteration of the U.S. dollar and civil war. After that, things will get really bad. The rest of the gory details were outlined in the Wall Street Journal on December 29. Just look for "As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S."
One line stood out for me, though: "There is a 55-45 percent chance that disintegration will occur," Panarin said.
A 55 percent chance of a collapse of the United States is hopeless optimism when it comes to the WJC. Fact is, the chances of a U.S. victory at a WJC are up there with the odds of your winning 649. The chances of the American team's under-achievement are a sun-rises-in-the-east proposition.
Don't mistake my little screed for Dr Panarin's. This isn't pure America-bashing. It's a statement of fact. The U.S. has had a major impact on the game of hockey. The NHL would be a far weaker loop if you yanked all the American-born talent from it. The hearts of some of the NHL's finest and most up-standing citizens beat a little faster when The Star-Spangled Banner is played before a game.
So there's plenty of talent. There's character. With the vast resources that the USA Hockey program has at its disposal, you'd think that success would be guaranteed. Not talking about every-year success--it's too complicated a game and it's a worthy field of teams at the WJC. But certainly regular success. At the very least occasional success.
It's almost unthinkable that the U.S. would have but one championship to show for all the talent that it sent to the WJC. But that's it: 2004 and even that was a fluke, a bank shot from a Canadian goalie into his own net being the difference-maker in the final.
As collapses go, the Americans' crash at this WJC has been as spectacular as any in their sorry history. It wasn't the 5-3 loss to Slovakia--that was only the end point. It was a total breakdown that commenced midway through the first period of the Canada-U.S. game. When the U.S. jumped out to a 3-0 lead against the hosts and defending champions, some were already pencilling in the Americans into the final, maybe even establishing themselves as the gold-medal favourites (presuming that the Swedes and Canadians would beat up on each other in a semi-final). We know how that turned out. John Tavares started a fire and his team-mates took turns pouring gasoline on it. The loss to Slovakia at Scotiabank Place was a quarter-final game but it did feel an awful lot like the fourth, fifth and sixth periods of the Canada-U.S. tilt.
Sure, the U.S. thoroughly dominated play and much history will be written declaring that Jaroslav Janus stole the game. True, Janus, a goalie who toils with only some success and not much distinction for the Erie Otters, turned aside 44 shots. But even the game of his life shouldn't have been enough. It's frequently said that the Canadian program usually finds a way to win ... well, the converse can be amplified with the U.S. The Americans with but one exception find a way to lose.
It was supposed to be different this year. NHL scouts have criticized USA Hockey for passing over American-born players in the CHL in favour of collegians. The final USA roster featured eight CHL players but other than goaltender Thomas McCollum of the Guelph Storm and defenceman Jonathon Blum of the Vancouver Giants, none had featured (top-two line) roles. The Spokane Chiefs' Tyler Johnson saw almost no ice. (You could make the case that McCollum saw too much of it vs Slovakia. For a while there it seemed like there wasn't a shot that he couldn't get out of the way of.)
Not all are culpable. Colin Wilson, the Boston University centre and son of former NHLer Carey Wilson, was the headliner on this squad and he never bailed out. He had his heart ripped out by Dustin Tokarski a couple of time vs Canada but his work ethic never waned. Nashville drafted him in the first round of the draft last June and it's easy to picture him as the Predators' go-to guy for as long as they stay in business and eve, if as Dr Panarin predicts, Tennessee secedes along with others to form a new Confederacy.
Wilson, though, was an exception. More typical was the (non-)performance of James van Riemsdyk, Wilson's winger and the Flyers' first-round pick, No. 2 overall, behind Patrick Kane. This was his third trip to the WJC. He had been a dominant player at the spring under-18s in 2007, man among boys. But since then: pffftt. Said one scout after the Slovakia game: "He isn't any better than he was two seasons ago. He might have even gone backwards as a player since he went from [USA Hockey's] under-18 program to UNH [the University of New Hampshire]." Yup, he scored a near-meaningless goal late in the Slovakia game but his most memorable moment will be his tumbling over the boards when pounded by Canada's Stefan Della Rovere.
Jordan Schroeder was a disappointment yesterday as well. Widely regarded as the best U.S. prospect eligible for the coming NHL draft, Schroeder was having a fine tournament until the loss to Canada. Thereafter the University of Minnesota forward, the third and final component on the U.S. first line, was invisible--or, at least, visible when he stick-handled away an early penalty shot but seldom after. Not the next Patrick Kane, that's for sure.
I was talking it over with one scout. This guy who was born in Canada but moved to the U.S. years back and might pass for a super-patriot when it comes to truth, justice and the American way. And though he believes in the NCAA as a better training ground than Canadian junior hockey, even he admits that USA Hockey's model is broken and needs to be fixed. He said past Canadian failures occurred when Hockey Canada gave special consideration to player (e.g. Eric Lindros) at the expense of team building. It's arguable, I suppose. No doubt, though, there's a certain entitlement when it comes to the U.S. program--some would say that the program fosters it or tolerates it, some would say it's simply the culture of the game there. If they're going to get it together they better do it quickly--according to Igor Panarin the U.S. talent base is going to get thinner. He says that by the end of next year Alaska will be annexed and returned to its original proprietors. He sez Sarah Palin really will be able to see Russia from her house. Scott Gomez and Matt Carle too.
- Panik update After the U.S. had drawn within a goal in the third period, Rchard Panik, just 17, blew by U.S. defenceman Ian Cole (a first-round pick of the St Louis Blues in 2007) and threw the puck towards McCollum, not a bad strategy given his form. That was good for the fourth Slovakian goal, a back-breaker as it turned out. Panik, a big, suprisingly physicall mature right winger, was much more impressive than Schroeder. I spoke to him afterwards through a translator. (Panik speaks almost no English.) He says that he plans on playing in Windsor next year but doesn't see trying to come over to join the team for a run to the Memorial Cup. He says he's getting fourth line play with Trinec in the Czech league--"maybe on the ice eight or ten times a game"--but says he's happy enough with that and it's a good learning experience. Off what he showed vs the U.S. he'll be a big impact player for the Spitfires if they can get him over here. The players from the Czech team were warming up while Panik was doing interviews and evidently they have some history--some mostly good natured barbs were indecipherably traded.
- No need to hype Okay, it was a fun game, I'll grant you that but hyping it to be something more is just goofy and uninformed. The Globe and Mail called it "the most remarkable giant-killing in recent memory." Oh yeah, you'd have to go way back to find something right up there with it ... like the Germans knocking off the Americans (Kane, Mueller, Johnson & Johnson) at the world juniors two years ago. Yeah, I'm not sure that it's the most profoundly surprsing result Slovakia has generated--they tied Canada (scoreless) in Brandon in 1999 and then knocked off tournament favourite Sweden (the Sedins and others) in the bronze medal game. Yeah, the Kazakh-Canada game gets thrown in there but that's ancient history (11 years back). Slovakia isn't the minnow that Kazakhstan is.
- The death of hockey in the Czech Republic and Slovakia I mentioned (umpteen times) discussions with an IIHF official who says that the problems with the inferior and undeserving teams qualifying for this WJC (e.g. Kazakhstan and Latvia) and those better teams left out (Switzerland and Belarus) are not a major concern ... the far more pressing problem, he told me, is hockey malaise in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. And he maintains hockey in those nations is being killed by the CHL. Go tell it to Jaroslav Janus or to the two other CHLers in the Slovakian line-up, Marek Viedensky of Prince George (who picked up assists on the Slovaks' third-period goals) and Michal Siska of Kamloops. Or to Panik for that matter--how he figures ten minutes a game in the Czech league will advance his game better than the CHL is beyond me. The Slovak team that tied Canada back in Brandon in the 1999 tournament was just loaded with CHLers. The CHL isn't killing Czech or Slovak hockey--it's the hope for the best players, just about their only salvation.
