It's too early to pick a frontrunner with team lineups still in flux as NHL teams continue to send players back to the juniors.
The opening of the National Hockey League season just made handicapping the Memorial Cup a bit more difficult.
Top-end junior players attend NHL camps each year, leaving teams in the Canadian Hockey League in a wait-and-see position through the first couple weeks of their season. As such, junior team personnel have just as hard a time gauging their own team than they do the teams they will be competing against.
The decision is rather minor by comparison for NHL teams when determining the immediate future of their prospects. However, the difference between a player unexpectedly returning to junior and another surprisingly staying in the NHL has a big impact on the junior teams that holds their rights.
"It's a huge effect on an organization when you get the right guys back," explained Kelly Kisio, general manager of the Calgary Hitmen. "It helps the coaching staff and management decide more on which direction they want to go."
Kisio's team benefitted from a late arrival when the Washington Capitals opted to send forward Joel Broda back to them. Broda scored 53 goals last season and figures to be a top scorer in the league once again.
"He definitely helps the cause, that's for sure," said Kisio, who anticipated Broda could be back for his overage season given the depth in the Capitals' system. "It gives you a chance to win, albeit that one person doesn't make your hockey team, he definitely helps in the grand scheme of things."
Although the Hitmen lost a lot of players to graduation last season, they're still considered one of the top teams in the Western Hockey League's Eastern Conference. Adding Broda to the mix means Calgary has the option to surround him with players who could compete for the league crown or trade him to help expedite the rebuilding process.
Broda was just one of many players returned to junior this week. The Brandon Wheat Kings, who are hosting this year's Memorial Cup, got a big boost when overage forward Matt Calvert turned down a contract with the Columbus Blue Jackets for a chance to win the Memorial Cup.
Brandon was long considered the front-runners for the league crown this season but they couldn't be blamed for their cautious optimism three weeks ago. The Wheat Kings began the season without Calvert, Scott Glennie, Brayden Schenn and Europeans Alexander Urbom and Toni Rajala.
Wheat Kings head coach and general manager Kelly McCrimmon knew his team should look good on paper but until he received his aces back, nothing was certain.
"You look in Brandon and within a day of each other you get Brayden Schenn and Matt Calvert back that are high-end, high-end players in our league and that makes for a formidable opponent in Brandon," Kisio said.
Meanwhile, the Saskatoon Blades also received overage defenceman Sam Klassen from the New York Rangers. The Rangers appeared to have thrown a wrench in the Blades' plans this summer when they signed the undrafted prospect, only to send him back for another year of junior seasoning.
The Hitmen, Blades and Wheat Kings all have teams built to contend for the title but what makes the WHL so interesting this season is the fact that another Memorial Cup spot is available.
Since Brandon is hosting the tournament and have their spot guaranteed, should they reach the league championship series the team they meet will automatically join them in the tournament. As thus, the mentality for teams in the Western Conference is to win their conference, knowing that might be good enough to gain entry into the Memorial Cup.
"I just think it's natural to think that way," Spokane Chiefs general manager Tim Speltz said. "Assuming (Brandon's) successful, the difference is you have to win three playoff series and not four and that's huge."
As is the case in any year when a league hosts the Memorial Cup, there are more movers and shakers on the trade front. The strong teams in the Eastern Conference will need to measure themselves directly against the Wheat Kings while the teams in the Western Conference might only need a finals berth.
The Western Conference will likely have a broader distinction between contenders and rebuilding teams this season. Speltz's Chiefs already threw their hat in the ring after trading for Kyle Beach from the Lethbridge Hurricanes. That trade will likely be the first of the big trickle-down effect in the Western Conference.
Two teams are still in limbo awaiting the future of their star junior players. The Vancouver Giants remain without forwards Evander Kane and James Wright while the defending league champion Kelowna Rockets await a decision on defenceman Tyler Myers.
Of the three, Wright is the most likely to return. The Giants, who are perennial contenders, will likely be in the mix this season regardless of whether Wright and Kane return.
The decision for the Rockets, meanwhile, will depend greatly on whether Myers is back. Should Myers return for his fourth season, Kelowna has every reason to believe a second-consecutive Memorial Cup appearance is attainable. Their decision, however, might hang in the balance awaiting the Buffalo Sabres' decision.
While NHL teams make their final decisions with regards to the future faces of their franchise, junior teams await the decision on their immediate future.
"If the right guys come back -- the right 20-year-olds come back -- and they want to be pros and be contributing guys on your hockey team then it makes for a lot of good teams in the league," Kisio said.
"I see the Western Conference being a dog-fight from start to finish," Speltz concluded.
