It is a long way to May 30, Championship Sunday at the MasterCard Memorial Cup, but one can already imagine the last thing the Windsor Spitfires want to see.
That would be the London Knights lifting the trophy on Windsor’s ice, completing a repeat to match the feat of the 2009 and ’10 Spitfires of Taylor Hall/Ryan Ellis fame. By no means is that a prediction of what will unfold across the next eight months, since at this point there isn’t one coach or GM among 60 Canadian Hockey League outposts who is even certain about the material he has to work with. Players such as the Knights’ all-everything Mitch Marner can stick in the NHL.
The two southwestern Ontario cities, separated by a two-hour drive, have been parry-and-thrust in the OHL for more than a decade. London, under Dale Hunter and Mark Hunter, won its first Memorial Cup in 2005. The Spitfires were taken over by the group that includes GM Warren Rychel less than a year later.
London has since reached the summit of major junior again. Windsor has gone through a peripatetic phase since the Hall years, but has the nod to host after bidding thrice in a row.
The entire OHL campaign, if one is so inclined, could boil down to whether the Spitfires gel after the trade deadline and peak by springtime. Entering the Memorial Cup through the figurative front door, as a league champ, might require defeating London in the Western Conference final.
Here is a rough idea of where everyone stands in the Western Conference, the stacked half of the OHL.
1. London Knights
They might not be the same juggernaut without Christian Dvorak and possibly Marner. However, D-man Olli Juolevi (Vancouver) and left winger Matthew Tkachuk (Calgary), who went back-to-back at Nos. 5 and 6 overall in June, don’t need to be rushed by their NHL organizations.
Hunter has no fewer than 16 players attending NHL prospect or main camps. Once everyone trickles back, London should be able to fill out the flow chart of NHL prospects, role players and 17-year-olds who might have to suck up a healthy scratch, but can deliver after being furnished with favourable zone starts (pro tip: draft Alex Formenton for your OHL keeper pool).
2. Windsor Spitfires
A theme of last season was groundwork. Coach Rocky Thompson was adapting from coaching pros to coaching teens. Cornerstone Mikhail Sergachev (Montreal) was learning a new game and language. Wunderkinds such as centre Gabriel Vilardi and No. 1 goalie Michael DiPietro were adapting while taking on much more than is usually asked of a player in his age-16 season. All of the above could really take a large step forward now that they are settled.
The main question with Windsor is how Sergachev, blueliner Logan Stanley (Winnipeg), centre Logan Brown (Ottawa), right winger Christian Fischer (Arizona) and centre Julius Nättinen (Anaheim) will adapt from their NHL camp experience to focusing on group success at the OHL level. Memorial Cup host teams—especially once rosters are set—are always scrutinized for weakness, and that creates pressure. Windsor, with one playoff win (game, not series) in a half-decade, doesn’t have that shared experience to provide stress relief.
It stands to reason Windsor will figure it out by May. Adding two-way right wing Jeremiah Addison (Montreal) as an overage was also a masterstroke by Rychel.
3. Sarnia Sting
Not unlike London, it is unlikely the Sting will lose three NHL first-rounders—defenceman Jakob Chychrun (Arizona), right wing Travis Konecny (Philadelphia) and left wing Pavel Zacha (New Jersey).
Regarding Chychrun, remember that the 18-year-old comes into the season having trained to play instead of rehabbing a surgically repaired shoulder. Sarnia is potentially formidable with Chychrun as a zone-clearing force and power-play quarterback distributing pucks to the other two first-rounders as well: right wingers Nikita Korostelev (Toronto) and Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis).
Sarnia was 23-8-0-1 from Jan. 1 through the end of the regular season. That point pace might be a ceiling for the full 68.
4. Owen Sound Attack
Junior hockey hipsters, this is your team. Michael McNiven (Montreal) is a goalie-of-the-year candidate supported by four elders on the blueline. That latter clause hinges on incumbent captain Santino Centorame and fellow overage Thomas Schemitsch (Florida) each return to join Jacob Friend (Los Angeles) and Tyler MacArthur. A Ryan McGill-coached team can also be counted on for unremitting puck pressure. Owen Sound was 15-10-2-1 after the deadline while playing in the loaded Midwest.
There are questions about scoring. Six-foot-six centre Matt Schmalz (Los Angeles) will furnish net-front presence if he returns. Petrus Palmu is the leading returning scorer (23-26-49).
5. Kitchener Rangers
The Rangers’ two biggest scoring threats are wingers, on the right side Jeremy Bracco (Toronto) and on the left Adam Mascherin (Florida), and it’s tough to build around wingers. Beyond 18-year-old centre Connor Bunnaman (Philadelphia), there is a drop-off in in the middle. The skill and speed is abundant, especially with two 17-year-olds, right wing Greg Meireles and centre Cedric Schimenz.
The Rangers have had an excellent continuity on the back end, which they should maintain under new coach Jay McKee, who played more than 800 NHL games as a stay-at-home defenceman. Overage Dawson Carty has nailed down the No. 1 goalie job.
6. Erie Otters
The working assumption is that captain Dylan Strome will be with the Arizona Coyotes until well into November. With the world juniors in December, Erie’s not likely to see much of No. 19 before January, if at all.
Another 50-win season might not in the offing, but a team coached by Kris Knoblauch should be capable of making it four years in a row with at least 40. Erie has maintained a nearly all homegrown roster for several seasons, and has a good blend of forwards—brawn from overage pivot Kyle Pettit (Vancouver) and right winger Taylor Raddysh (Tampa Bay), and skill from Alex DeBrincat (Chicago) and 17-year-old Ivan Lodnia.
The Otters added 19-year-old netminder Troy Timpano, so they must feel they’re still magic. Timpano earned much admiration while facing 39 shots per game in Sudbury over the past two seasons.
7. Saginaw Spirit
Coach Spencer Carbery, an ECHL vet, will surely need time to foster rapport with eight vets who are at NHL camps. That group includes Team Canada incumbent Mitchell Stephens (Tampa Bay) as the No. 1 centre and three drafted D-men: Filip Hronek (Detroit), Keaton Middleton (Toronto) and Markus Niemalainen (Edmonton). The latter two, each 6-foot-5, are projects.
Playmaker Brady Gilmour, 17, and 18-year-old goalie Evan Cormier (New Jersey), will have some great nights. How they rebound from the inevitable rough ones will factor into Saginaw’s fate.
8. Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
Drafted forwards abound on the ‘Hounds, including 19-year-olds Zach Senyshyn (Boston) and Blake Speers (New Jersey). Defence and goaltending, with Joseph Raaymakers as a first-time No. 1, could be an issue.
The upshot for the ‘Hounds is that if they are slow out of the gate—especially while Senyshyn, who suffered appendicitis two weeks ago, is regaining full strength—then it might hasten becoming a seller. There will be willing trade partners during a Memorial Cup host year, and they need to commit to building around their 18-year-old trio of forwards, Tim Gettinger (NY Rangers), Jack Kopacka (Anaheim) and Boris Katchouk (Tampa Bay).
9. Guelph Storm
When all else fails, believe in hope, and Guelph has that since D-men Ryan Merkley (No. 1 overall) and Dmitri Samourkov (No. 2 overall in the import draft) were the spoils of finishing dead last. Making the playoffs as a developing team in the Midwest is tough, but Guelph’s cadre of 19-year-old defencemen, including Noah Carroll (Carolina), did a lot of on-the-job training in ’15-16.
The Storm, who have added overage goalie Liam Herbst, need a big bounce up after the nadir of 36 points.
10. Flint Firebirds
Job 1—and two through 10—for GM George Burnett and new coach Ryan Oulahen is building trust with players and advisers. The fallout from last season’s player walkout will take several seasons to contain. Nicholas Caamano (Dallas) broke out as a 20-goal scorer last season, and is still barely 18 years old. Flint will need to make a goalie trade; at this writing, there isn’t a goalie on the roster who has ever won an OHL game.