The opening game of the 2016 MasterCard Memorial Cup is a battle of rust vs. rest. Two years ago, the London Knights were in a very similar position to that of the Red Deer Rebels at this year’s tournament. Back in 2014, the Knights were the tourney’s host and thus guaranteed a spot but they were knocked out of the OHL playoffs in the second round. So it went for the Rebels, this year’s host, who last played on April 29, losing Game 5 of the WHL’s Eastern Conference final to Brandon.
It might be the hardest task for coaches and players in junior hockey: maintain focus and form when there are only practices to look forward to over the course of weeks. Some teams managed to strike the perfect balance—Ottawa won a title like this in ’99 and Shawinigan in 2012. But in 2014, the Knights looked flat and unfocused and lost all three of their games, even with the likes of Max Domi, Bo Horvat and Chris Tierney in the lineup.
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How will it shake out for Red Deer? Look for the Rebels blueliners to try to play a heavy, physical game against the Knights’ prolific first line of Matthew Tkachuk, Christian Dvorak and Mitch Marner. Other good teams have tried that this spring, Niagara in the OHL final and Erie in the conference final, and both were swept—in fact the only two games the Knights dropped during their impressive run through four series this spring were a couple of games against the lightly considered Owen Sound Attack in first round.
Red Deer does have some big bodies and experienced blueliners who might be better suited to the task than those the Knights faced in the OHL playoffs. Haydn Fleury (Carolina’s first-rounder, seventh overall in 2014), Nelson Nogier (a Winnipeg draft from the same year) and overager Kayle Doetzel will try to lean on the Big 3 and it will be an interesting test particularly for the draft-eligible Tkachuk. Said one NHL scout this week: “Tkachuk’s game is between the dots and in the dirty areas out there. His ability to get in there and find the puck and get shots off is really at the elite level. But he’s going to see another level of contact out there, at least five-on-five.”
In this week’s edition, Jeff is joined by Sam Cosentino, Joey Kenward and Timo Meier for a wide-ranging MasterCard Memorial Cup preview.
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A couple of big hits early against the Knights might get the Rebels’ blood running—the upside—or, if reckless, put London on the power play—the downside. Five-on-four buys Tkachuk and Marner space to operate, not that they need a lot.
While layoffs, weeks without games, can make it hard for skaters to get their motors running, it doesn’t necessarily have quite the same adverse effect for goaltenders, so if Red Deer is going to have any success at the event, they’re going to need their last line of defence to step up. The Rebels have evenly divided time between Trevor Martin and Rylan Toth—they’ve each played in nine playoff games and they’ve posted identical .905 save percentages, Martin with a 3.05 GAA and Toth a 3.19. With their season on the line against Brandon Red Deer coach Brent Sutter went with Toth, but he might turn to Martin who has a won-loss of 6-2 in the post season.