MONTREAL – Dozens of storylines will play out over the next couple of weeks at the 2015 IIHF World Junior Championship in Toronto and Montreal but one dominates conversation for better or worse: the showdown between the top two players eligible for the 2015 NHL entry draft, Canada’s Connor McDavid and the U.S.’s Jack Eichel.
There are a couple of hundred other players and dozens of them will go on to have an impact in this tournament or a future in the game. Ten teams will step on the ice and all have their stakes, gold as the goal for the heavyweights, avoiding demotion for the also-rans. Still, before the pucks in the opening games are dropped, McDavid and Eichel will be the focus and will remain so until someone else through heroic feats imposes himself as the talk of the holiday season.
I’ve worked more than a dozen of these tournaments over the last 20 years and only a handful of times has it played out that the locks for the top two picks in the upcoming draft have been in the mix. It’s fewer still when you’re looking at them being impact players and even fewer still when you’re looking them going head to head as McDavid and Eichel will on New Year’s Eve. If these two are the dominant figures here, if the draft order is locked in based on anything that happens here, we’ll be in uncharted territory.
So here’s an unscientific look at how top-ranked draft-eligible rivals fared as under-agers at the world juniors. Points are based on:
- The prominence of the roles these prospects played for their respective teams.
- Value of head-to-head match-ups played in draft evaluations.
- Star quality.
- Drama.
- Entertainment.
This falls on a scale of one to 10 with “Incomplete” given in cases where top draft-eligibles didn’t play in the World Juniors.
Chris Phillips and Andrei Zyuzin (1996)
Back in Boston in 1996, Chris Phillips skated on the Canadian blueline and Andrei Zyuzin did the same for the Russians and though they’d go No. 1 and 2 in the draft a few months later they were minor figures. When these teams went head to head in the semi-finals they really didn’t figure in a classic game, a 4-3 Canadian win. Jarome Iginla and Jose Theodore showed the way for Canada, Alexei Morozov for Russia. Phillips took his place in a line behind Nolan Baumgartner, Canada’s best blue-liner, and Wade Redden and Denis Gauthier. Zyuzin was a face in the crowd. McDavid-Eichel factor: 1
Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau (1997)
Thornton barely played as 13th forward for Canada. Marleau didn’t make the cut for Canada. McDavid-Eichel factor: Incomplete
Vincent Lecavalier and David Legwand (1998)
The Canadian program had long looked at the world juniors as a 19-year-old tournament but broke from their recipe and looked to Lecavalier for a lead role. Way too much hype, way too much to ask, way too soon. Lecavalier never fit the part and grew ever smaller as Canada crashed and burned, losing to the Russians in the quarters, the U.S. in the consolation round and then to Kazakhstan in the seventh-place game. Legwand was a bit player, mentioned in the same breath as Mike Modano by some – apologies to Mike Modano. McDavid-Eichel factor: 2
Patrik Stefan and the Sedins (1999)
Stefan missed the world juniors in Manitoba because of a concussion suffered in the IHL. He had looked physically impressive at the 1998 tournament and I remember a scout telling me, straight up, dead to rights, he’d lap the Sedins. Not exactly how it turned out. (He also figured Daniel edged out Henrik in a contest of merits.) The Sedins were great in the tournament – just as they had been in the ’98 tournament. Canada gutted out a semi-final win over the Swedes, the favourites going in. The Sedins were really good but they watched the Russians win the final from the stands. McDavid-Eichel factor: Incomplete
Rick DiPietro and Dany Heatley (2000)
DiPietro was in the .930 range for the U.S. and looked legit as the U.S. No. 1 and the goaltender of the tournament. Heatley scored the game-winner in the third period against DiPietro in the bronze-medal game. Mike Milbury thought he had seen the future with DiPietro but nobody really thought Heatley was a superstar-type talent before or after. McDavid-Eichel factor: 3
Ilya Kovalchuk and Jason Spezza (2001)
Kovalchuk led the way for Russia in beating the Canadians in the opening round, showing amazing skating ability and taunting the Canadians after the fact. You knew that he was ready to play in the NHL the next season and he did that – as well as playing in the Olympics. For his part, Spezza raised his play as the tournament went on and made the tournament all-star team. Kovalchuk confirmed his status as the No. 1 that game but he showed less and less in each game that followed. Russia finished out of the medals and Canada picked up a bronze. Overall impression: The gap between these two and the rest of their class looked pretty precipitous going in and even more afterward. Maybe you could read the tea leaves off this and envision that both would be very good players but something less than HHOFers. McDavid-Eichel factor: 5
Rick Nash and Kari Lehtonen (2002)
Going into this tournament the talk focused on the player who would go No. 3 in the draft the following June, Jay Bouweester – who was talked up like a future Norris Trophy winner. Same as he was talked about for the previous two tournaments, few saw Nash passing him at the event in the Czech Republic because Nash played fourth-line and 13th-forward minutes. Lehtonen was outstanding for the Finns, the best goaltender in the tournament. McDavid-Eichel factor: 1
Marc-Andre Fleury and Eric Staal (2003)
Fleury was Canada’s best player by far. Staal did not make the team. McDavid-Eichel factor: Incomplete
Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin (2004)
No chance to go head to head. Ovechkin’s skills were plain with five goals in six games. He was the known quantity after delivering the year before in Halifax. But in Finland he might still have been the best but not at his best. Malkin picked up a goal and four assists. Even if he and Ovechkin further separated themselves from the field, Russia fell in the quarters to the host Finns. McDavid-Eichel factor: 1
Sidney Crosby and Bobby Ryan (2005)
Crosby was very good but was sort of lost in the crowd pn the best team to play in this tournament in the last 20 years. Bobby Ryan didn’t get invited to the U.S. team. McDavid-Eichel factor: Incomplete
Erik Johnson and Jordan Staal (2006)
Johnson was impressive in a supporting role for a U.S. team that finished out of the medal. (Phil Kessel, the fifth pick in the entry draft that year and the buzzier name going in, was pretty dynamic for the Americans.) Staal didn’t get an invitation to the Canadian team but Jonathan Toews, the No. 3 pick in the coming June, was a third-line guy. McDavid-Eichel factor: 3 based on Johnson-Toews.
Patrick Kane and James Van Riemsdyk (2007)
Kane was the U.S.’s best forward, surpassed only by Toews and Alexei Cherapanov in Sweden. Van Riemsdyk was little used at the end of the American bench. McDavid-Eichel factor: 2
Steven Stamkos and Drew Doughty (2008)
Both were important players for a Canadian team that wins narrowly in the Czech Republic. Doughty might have actually filled the larger role but a lot of the attention focused on what passed for an internal competition between Stamkos and John Tavares. McDavid-Eichel factor: 3
John Tavares and Victor Hedman (2009)
This is the closest thing that we have to McDavid-Eichel. Tavares and Hedman were No. 1 and 2 and no one close for third in everyone’s book though a few insiders – a few more than will ever admit to it – had Hedman ahead of Tavares. Tavares completely delivered on his end – he was absolutely electrifying in leading the host Canadian team to a critical comeback win over the U.S. in the opening round. Hedman struggled – he was knocked for being outplayed by teammate Erik Karlsson. In fairness to Hedman, he was absolutely rocked in an exhibition game against Canada in Toronto and was something less than his usual self. The Canada-Sweden match-up in the final in Ottawa was anti-climactic, with the hosts routing no-showing visitors. Still, the tournament gave a pretty good window into the games after the clear Nos. 1 and 2. Personal aside: I remember scratching on the door of the hotel restaurant at 6:00 a.m. on New Year’s Day and I struck up a conversation with the only other patron in the room, Islanders GM Garth Snow. He made it seem pretty clear that Tavares was his leaning and his scouting priority, his mind made up even before the medal round had begun – that is, before Tavares and Hedman met in tournament play. McDavid-Eichel factor: 7
Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin (2010)
Hall showed a great skill set but wasn’t Canada’s best. Seguin didn’t make the final cut. McDavid-Eichel factor: Incomplete
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Gabriel Landeskog (2011)
Nugent-Hopkins was a late cut, knocked for being not physically ready for the tournament. Scouts working the tryouts were divided on that one. Landeskog sprained an ankle and his tournament was over after one game. McDavid-Eichel factor: Incomplete
Nail Yakupov and Ryan Murray (2012)
Yakupov flashed skills and racked nine assists but not one goal for the eventual silver medalists. Should anyone have read anything into that? It could have provided fuel for second-guessing about his finishing ability, maybe. Murray was a contributor on the Canadian blue line but not quite the lead guy on the third-place finishers. McDavid-Eichel factor: 2
Nathan MacKinnon and Alexander Barkov (2013)
A complete jumble. The draft talk before the tournament focused on Seth Jones, who’d emerged as the NHL Central Scouting No. 1 but would still be there for Nashville with the No. 4 pick. Jones was very solid for the U.S. but was eclipsed by Jacob Trouba. McKinnon seemed to pose the likeliest challenge to Jones’s top ranking but he wound up with a less prominent role than Halifax teammate and fellow draft-eligible Jonathan Drouin. Barkov picked up three goals but Finland didn’t make it to the quarters. McDavid-Eichel factor: 3 based on Jones-MacKinnon
Aaron Ekblad and Sam Reinhart (2014)
Again, more than two names in the mix. The draft class was a complete grab-bag with Sam Bennett as the No. 1 North American according to NHL Central Scouting and Ekblad and Reinhart Nos. 2 and 3. None in this lot would be considered a franchise player and all would have been selected after McDavid or Eichel if they had been draft-eligible. Ekblad was Canada’s best defenceman in the tournament, no small feat, but he would suffer (greatly) by comparison to Doughty at the same stage. Reinhart wasn’t asked to or expected to carry the day for Canada – Drouin, Anthony Mantha and McDavid had more prominent roles. McDavid-Eichel factor: 1