It’s a shock to the system to be moved mid-season for any player. But in the junior ranks it’s essentially a given that many top teams are going to load up for Memorial Cup runs by adding top-end 18- and 19-year-old talent in exchange for their top 15- and 16-year-old prospects and/or draft picks. This year, some of the biggest names in the CHL have been on the move. But the question when talking about teenage players is how they’ll react to the change of scenery.
Jeff Marek hosts Sportsnet’s CHL podcast, a one-stop shop for news, analysis, opinion and interviews covering the WHL, OHL and QMJHL.
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OHL
Former OHL first-overall draft pick and Ottawa 67’s captain Travis Konecny was dealt to the Sarnia Sting in January. Along with 20-year-old teammate Sam Studnicka, the 67’s got a package that included 17-year-old Chase Campbell, 16-year-old Sasha Chmelevski, eight picks spread over the 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 drafts and two conditional selections in 2021 and 2022, which depend upon whether or not Konecny plays in the OHL next season.
Crazily, Ottawa could still be benefiting from the exchange six years from now, but Sarnia is in win now mode. This despite the fact that as of Monday, Ottawa and Sarnia both sat second in their respective divisions, with 54 and 63 points. Sarnia is obviously the stronger of the two sides, but they are far from guaranteed to make noise in the playoffs.
In addition to the trade to acquire Konecny and Studnicka, the Sting also dealt for Devon Paliani from the Saginaw Spirit and two overagers in Matt Mistele from the Oshawa Generals and goaltender Charlie Graham from the Hamilton Bulldogs.
Since joining the Sting, Konecny has been more than advertised, stepping things up to produce 12 goals and 28 points in 16 games. Per Prospects-Stats.com, he now ranks third in the OHL in estimated Even Strength Points per 60 at 3.97, behind 20-year-old Kevin Labanc of Barrie (4.21) and Matthew Tkachuk (4.25) and ahead of Mitch Marner (3.83) and Christian Dvorak (3.76) of the London Knights. Yet, for all the production Konecny is providing Sarnia, his impact would be secondary to the boost Michael Dal Colle is providing in Kingston.
Dal Colle—a Memorial Cup Champion in 2015 with Oshawa—had an underwhelming start to his season. Though he was named captain of the Generals, he struggled some, was cut by the NHL club that drafted him fifth overall in 2014 (NY Islanders) and by Team Canada in his final opportunity to play in the world juniors. He has responded to being dealt to a contender by producing at the highest rate of his junior career for Kingston.
Since being moved on Jan. 1, Dal Colle has been nothing short of on fire. He produced eight points in his first two games with the Frontenacs, eventually averaging two points per game in the month of January. February also started off with a bang: seven points in two games last weekend. Overall that gives him 31 points in only 14 games with Kingston, good for a production rate of 2.21 points per game.
It should also be noted that of Dal Colle’s 56 total points this season, an absurd 50 of them are primary points. He only has six secondary assists on the year, which speaks to both the offensive struggle he faced in Oshawa during a down year after winning the Memorial Cup, and to his impressive participation level offensively in Kingston.
Joining a team that features top sniper Spencer Watson and the captain of Canada’s world junior team, Lawson Crouse, Dal Colle has been able to fit in well on a mature squad that’s looking to compete in the playoffs and has ample use for his experience.
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WHL
The most noteworthy deadline deal in the Dub saw Regina acquire 20-year-old Cole Sanford from Medicine Hat. An undersized winger at 5-foot-9 and 165 lb., Sanford has produced 1.37 goals per 60 minutes of even-strength play this season, good for top 20 in the league, after posting 50 goals and 95 points last year for the Tigers. He had 21 goals and 38 points through 33 games to start this season, but so far in Regina has only posted five goals and seven points in 10 games.
Regina is currently holding onto a wild card spot with 53 points through 52 games, but their 167 goals ranks eighth in the Eastern Conference. If they hope to make any waves in the playoffs they’ll need more goals down the stretch.
QMJHL
The two most significant trades featured European import skaters Dmytro Timashov and Timo Meier. Timashov, the slick passing Swede, was dealt to Shawinigan from Quebec immediately after a fine showing at the world juniors in exchange for a first round pick and two thirds. Similarly, the Swiss star Timo Meier was acquired by Rouyn-Noranda from the Halifax Mooseheads in exchange for a first rounder, a second and a third.
Meier is an extremely effective scorer, firing more shots per 60 minutes of ice time (16.06) than any other skater in the “Q”. The scary part is, the gap between him and No. 2 isn’t close—he gets off two more shots per 60 than the next ranked player in the league. With only 20 goals on the season, it was quite likely that his goal scoring would ramp up with the Huskies.
This looks to be exactly what is happening. Meier had 11 goals through his first 23 games this season shooting 7.9%, but since the trade he has scored nine goals in 12 games on 12.9% shooting for one of the most productive goal-scoring stretches in the QMJHL this season. He is a career 11.4% shooter, so his recent numbers are closer to what we’d expect from him. Should Meier maintain his shot rate, he likely produces roughly 100 more shots in the final 17 games of the season and generates around 11 or 12 goals, pushing him over the 30-goal plateau on the season in 52 games played.
All of the major transactions should pay dividends for the teams making them, but the draft picks going the other way are a heavy price to pay. Only one team from each league can make it to the Memorial Cup in Red Deer. Competition for those slots looks to be fierce as we head to the wire for the playoffs and things are only going to heat up from here on out.