In the wake of the consecutive fourth-place finishes at the world juniors, people will be surveying the wreckage and wondering what would be Canada’s best recommended course of action going forward. I don’t know precisely what to tell Hockey Canada, but I do have a helpful suggestion for fans: Get used to it, at least for the near future.
Yes, as many as 11 players from this fourth-place team will be eligible to return next year but I can guarantee that most won’t. If healthy, Connor McDavid will and he’ll be eager to improve on his debut at the WJC, which in the end proved as inconsequential as other 16-year-olds for the Canadian juniors, Sidney Crosby included. If healthy, so will goaltender Zach Fucale, who has a year of junior eligibility left and will be returned to Halifax by the Canadiens next season.
It thins out rapidly after that, though.
Jonathan Drouin was supposed to be Team Canada’s franchise player in Malmo and played well, even if he flatlined against Finland in the semis. (You can cut him some slack, given that he was coming off a concussion suffered just before the under-20 training camp in December, but the shpilkes set off by his injury only gave notice that Canada lacked depth on its top two lines.) Drouin’s eligible to return, but there’s no shot at all. Tampa Bay could easily have kept him around this season and GM Steve Yzerman might second-guess the decision to send him back to Halifax for more seasoning.
Aaron Ekblad likely won’t be back. If you’re being selected in the top three of the draft next June–and Ekblad has every shot of being first overall—odds are you’ll move directly to the NHL. Drouin was the exception but it’s hard to see a lottery team, say, the Oilers, not sending him back to Barrie.
The further you go down the list of possible returnees, the less enthusiastic you get about the prospects of their potential return to the tournament. Would you feel better about Canada’s chances knowing that Frederik Gauthier, the big centre from Rimouski with third-line upside, is going to be back? Didn’t think so. And that said, at least a couple of others eligible for return (i.e. Bo Horvat, Josh Morrissey) will be playing in the NHL.
So too will the best of players from the 2013 entry draft who were passed over for this world junior team, notably Darnell Nurse and Max Domi. Watching the questionable puck-handling on the back end during the meltdown in the semi and bronze-medal game, you had to think that Nurse could have helped. Next year he’ll be helping the Oilers. As for Domi, only Drouin matches his skill set. It’s hard to see how he wouldn’t have offered an upgrade on what Brent Sutter was rolling over the boards on Canadian power plays. Dollars to doughnuts, Domi will be stick with the Coyotes coming out of the next training camp.
OK, you’re looking for reasons of optimism and you’ll point to Canada’s gold medal at the under-18s last spring. Take as much comfort from that as you want, just understand that the pipeline doesn’t offer much more promise than that. I can’t remember NHL scouts so down about a draft class as the 96-birthdays. Ekblad is a nice player but based on his ceiling, would he have broken into the top four of the 2013 class? Nobody would be taking him ahead of Seth Jones. And scouts think there’s a fall-off in the Canadian pool of talent after Ekblad, Reinhart and maybe Sam Bennett in Kingston.
At each turn after the opening round, Hockey Canada couldn’t have asked for a better position to be in: It sounds disrespectful but the quarterfinal against Switzerland was an ideal, nonthreatening tune-up, the nearest thing to a bye. The Swiss sometimes send out good teams that can overachieve and knock off anyone else in a given game, but they can only get close against Canada. A semifinal against the Finns was preferable to a meeting against the hosts, the Russians or the U.S. Tougher than the Swiss but still a winnable game. Yet at no point in that semi did it look like Canada deserved to beat Finland. And even the bronze-medal game set up well for Canada—Russia was coming off tough games against the U.S. and Sweden.
Everything they could have asked for and only the fourth-place handshake to show for it.
Hockey Canada tried to use a different recipe to cook up a winner for this tournament. Unfortunately, the soufflé didn’t rise in the semi. HC officials decided to go to Lake Placid to play the U.S. juniors and others last summer, because it would give them a better measurement on the players. They decided to forego the selection camp in its usual format in December, because it would avoid a couple of the highs and lows that are a byproduct of tryouts. Hockey Canada’s willingness to tinker with a formula that had worked so well in the 1990s and as recently as 2009 bespeaks an air of concern or even desperation.
Brent Sutter was supposed to be the miracle man, the guy with the undefeated record in two previous trips to the WJC. Please don’t give him too much credit for the win in 2005—no coach has ever had more to work with, a team that beat opponents before they left the dressing room. Yeah, Sutter did yeoman’s work getting the 2006 edition—a less talented group—over the top, but coaches don’t finish chances on a power play, coaches don’t avoid taking bad penalties, coaches don’t make big saves. You can give Sutter too much credit for victories and too much blame this trip. He was never the difference maker. No one should be surprised when a rabbit’s foot stops working.
The rest of the world cares about the world juniors more now than ever before. Sweden’s program used to be a dog’s breakfast and now it is clearly the best. The U.S. was knocked out in the semis, but still has a couple of gold since Canada’s last victory. Russia has become Canada’s nightmare matchup again. The Finns have overachieved with the best team game and headiest play over the years, and have done a better job producing high-end talent. All this is makes the world juniors more significant and none of it is good news for Canada.