Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.
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1. Eric Staal should be in the discussion when considering bounce-back candidates. Staal scored once and added an assist on Saturday, giving him four goals in his last three games and points in six of his last seven games. With 24 points in 30 games, Staal is on pace for 65 points, which would be his highest per-game point total in four seasons.
An added bonus: With all the positive plus/minus in Minny, Staal is a plus-13. Staal has exceeded that plus-minus total just once in his entire career.
2. Vladimir Tarasenko’s playmaking has hit another level, which makes him a much more dynamic weapon and fantasy option. He’s moving from an Ovechkin Jr. into genuine superstar territory with his passing skills. Now we are looking at a 40-goal guy who might also setup another 40 plus goals. I wasn’t sure he’d find this next gear but he appears to have 31 games into the season. Tarasenko is all alone in second in league scoring with 37 points.
3. The way that Tarasenko and Nikita Kucherov are busting out is changing the dynamics of the right wing position. Before the season, I had Patrick Kane and Joe Pavelski all alone as top tier options, followed by Kucherov, Tarasenko, Jakub Voracek, Corey Perry and Blake Wheeler in the second tier. Kucherov and Tarasenko have butted into tier one. You could argue that Voracek has as well.
4. Dylan Larkin owners have been wondering why there hasn’t been more production as the sophomore has recorded just two assists all season (to go with 10 goals). Like Larkin, Montreal Canadiens rookie Artturi Lehkonen might be shaping up for a Cy Young record-type total. Lehkonen’s goal total well overmatches his assist total (6-1) after scoring Saturday.
Lehkonen also has goals in three of his past five games, but his ice time hasn’t changed a great deal since the Alex Galchenyuk/David Desharnais injuries (around 13-15 minutes per game). But he is at least receiving some second-unit power-play time. I’ve invested in him in a keeper league because he’s shown some promise in his rookie season.
5. With a goal on Saturday, Jonathan Drouin has eight points over his last seven games. The numerous Tampa Bay injuries are clearly helping his fantasy value and his ice time seems to make a huge difference. Start him with confidence.
6. Aaron Ekblad: Fewer than one block per game from a big-minute defenceman? Considering Ekblad’s shooting binge this season, I would take him in standard leagues over Drew Doughty – those are leagues scoring goals, assists, plus/minus, power-play points, penalty minutes and shots on goal. But if your league scores blocked shots then I start leaning towards Doughty. It’s only one category but having a defenceman who can’t even block a shot per game in a league that scores blocks is a liability. It’s also worth noting how poorly Ekblad has performed without Brian Campbell. He is losing possession battles on a nightly basis, is taking more penalties than ever and has a plus/minus in the tank.
7. Justin Schultz is in line for a bigger role. The Penguins’ first-unit power play without Kris Letang on Saturday featured Schultz on the point with the usual forwards (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist). I watched a fair portion of this game and it seemed like No. 4 for the Penguins was out there a lot. As it turned out, he led all Penguins’ defenders with 23 minutes and one helper. He’s owned in just over half of Yahoo! leagues, so his window has probably closed as far as his availability in serious leagues. But if he’s somehow available in your league, try to find a way to add him to your roster.
8. I was curious about Derrick Pouliot since he was recalled shortly after the Letang injury was announced and even more so now that Trevor Daley is also sidelined. In his second game on Saturday, Pouliot received 19 minutes — one minute and two more shifts than his first game.
If you’re in a keeper leaguer that’s been hanging onto Pouliot all this time waiting for his big break, these ice time totals have to be somewhat encouraging. I was expecting coach Mike Sullivan to shelter Pouliot the same way he has throughout his NHL stints, but the recent injuries should provide him with decent ice time and second-unit power-play minutes.
9. The hope for Mikael Granlund was that he would develop into Minnesota’s version of Nicklas Backstrom – an elite playmaker that can elevate his teammates to superb levels. Granlund is a good playmaker but he is not elite. He also isn’t much of a shooter. While he has seven goals on 14.0 per cent shooting, he is a mere 8.5 per cent career shooter. We should expect some regression.
Granlund is headed towards a career season but he probably tops out at 50 points. That he hasn’t emerged as a more dynamic playmaker (particularly on the power play) suggests that he is better served as a secondary offensive option. In the right scenario, he could go for more points but I would treat him like a 50-point guy at best.
10. Nino Niederreiter has 10 points in his last 11 games. When he is on, he is a force to be reckoned with. But for whatever reason, Niederreiter is still skating just 14:40 per game, with merely second unit power play unit time. On a lot of teams, he might be breaking out in the prime years of his career but on a team with Minnesota’s depth, he is caught in the numbers game.
I wonder about the early progression of Andrew Ladd when I think about Niederreiter. He might have to land on a bad team before he gets used in a top role. Niederreiter is a restricted free agent this summer and is arbitration eligible. He is going to command a lot to stick around. I wonder if he isn’t a cap casualty.
11. It’s time to start taking Carolina Hurricanes forward Derek Ryan seriously. He led AHL Charlotte in scoring last season and was named the team’s captain. Now he’s up with the big club and is producing so well that they can’t send him back down. And he’s playing with Jeff Skinner and Victor Rask.
With exposure to Skinner and Rask, plus some big power play usage, Ryan is in a great spot. He’s filling the role we thought Lee Stempniak would when he started the season off hot. I’d look for Ryan to produce at a Stempniak-esque 50-point pace the rest of the way. With 50 games left, that would mean about 30 points. He’s owned in just 9.2 per cent of Fantrax leagues.
12. Nick Bjugstad, skating on the top power-play unit in place of the injured Jonathan Marchessault, finally registered his first point of the season Thursday. I am out on Bjugstad. He was injured to start the year, so I always give a player seven or eight games before passing any kind of judgment. But he’s past that number and he’s coming off three seasons in which he’s managed just barely more than a point every two games.
13. Some folks are disappointed with the season Oliver Ekman-Larsson is having. They drafted him for elite production and he has been merely decent. It should be noted that last season was an outlier in terms of point production. Most seasons he has produced right around the 40-45 range. Without much in the way of scoring from his teammates, OEL hasn’t been getting the assists necessary to drive past the 50-point plateau. It’s tough to see where that scoring will come from.
What’s really concerning is that his shot volume is down nearly a full shot per game. He can still sling it, but with teams taking away his shot, he has become less valuable to fantasy owners. At merely two shots on goal per game, OEL is suddenly ordinary. He;s still good, so we aren’t talking about someone you should drop, but kicking the tires on trades would make a lot of sense.
14. Timo Meier made his NHL debut with the Sharks Friday and scored a goal on his first career shot. We’ve seen a ton of instant impact from players making their debut but it hasn’t always lasted. Meier skated just 10 minutes, with no power play time. He’s a great keeper league option but I wouldn’t go in on him in one-year leagues just yet. Meier got into the lineup replacing Joel Ward, who was a healthy scratch.
Meier is a former lottery pick who has performed well in his first pro season thus far with nine goals and 15 points in 17 AHL games. This is especially impressive as he has bounced back quickly after a bout of mono hindered his training camp chances.
15. Jiri Hudler is back and skating on Jason Spezza’s wing so we will finally see if these two can make some magic. I don’t have high expectations for Hudler, but if he had around 30 points the rest of the way, I would be satisfied.
16. Daniel and Henrik Sedin: Has the page turned on these guys? In November 2013, the twins signed a four-year contract extension that carries them through the end of next season, at which point they’ll be almost 38 years old. They are two seasons removed from 76 points (Daniel), but everything has declined since that time. The advanced stats indicate that the ideal situations for production are actually improving slightly, but the results are declining. And puck luck is right around the league average. There’s no reason for a decline other than … well, simply losing a step.
I’m just musing aloud here, but if the twins start getting 18 minutes of ice time instead of 19 or 20, and a portion of their power play time starts going to the second unit, then that might be better for all involved. The Sedins, the kids (like Sven Baertschi and Bo Horvat) – everyone.
17. Dmitry Orlov has four points in his last six games and nine in his last 17, if you’re looking for a depth option on defence. He also had a point taken away from him Friday night, too. His power play time has been fairly steady as a second unit option.
18. Nathan MacKinnon’s numbers are undergoing a vastly needed market correction and there’s still a ways for them to go. Kudos to you if you stuck by him and believed that the pucks were bound to start going in. If you doubted his talent for even a second, shame on you.
19. Antti Raanta is proving that he can be the future in Manhattan but Henrik Lundqvist has four years left on his contract after this one. So he’s not going anywhere. And Lundqvist also has a no-move clause, so he’s protected at the expansion draft. Can you see the Vegas Golden Knights going with a tandem of Marc-Andre Fleury and Antti Raanta?
20. Ilya Kovalchuk is having an amazing year in the KHL so far. He’s playing with Tampa Bay prospect Nikita Gusev (who you should keep on your radar because he’s buddies with Nikita Kucherov and wants to come over). Kovalchuk would either need all 30 teams to agree to his return for 2017-18 (doubtful, but possible), he could sign with New Jersey again for 2017-18 (not as remote, but still doubtful), or he could wait one more year and then return in 2018-19 as an unrestricted free agent at the age of 35 (he’s 33 right now). If he has another season like this one there will be no shortage of suitors.
