Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.
1. It took a 39-save shutout but Sergei Bobrovsky is now on the right side of .900 in terms of save percentage and 3.00 for goals-against average and please, may he never look back. I know it was bleak but I hope you hung in there. I am expecting top-10 numbers out of Bobrovsky the rest of the way, if not better. You can bet there will be hiccups but the worst is behind us.
2. David Savard has yet to score a goal despite boosting his shot rate to 2.0 per game. This is a guy who scored 11 goals last season and has averaged 7.6 goals per season as a professional. He is due.
3. What is crazy is that you will find Savard available in the majority of Yahoo! pools at just 16 per cent owned. Savard is on pace for 35 points without having scored a goal. Add five goals to that mix and he hits 40.
4. Nazem Kadri is on pace for 32 points, but given his tremendous shot rate, I believe 55 is in play. I’ve backed off from my 60 prediction since he has dug a big hole, but 55 means 47 points in the final 62 games, which is totally doable. The Leafs are starting to really play a nice brand of hockey.
5. How about James Reimer? His hot run has the Leafs sniffing around the playoffs, just three back in the wild card chase. They totally won’t make it and Reimer is sure to regress, but he could help your squad at least temporarily. At 47 per cent owned in Yahoo! leagues folks are starting to catch on.
6. For those concerned about Anze Kopitar, at least he is chipping away with five points in the past nine games. By no means is that good, but these little nibbles are enough to sustain you until the binge you know is coming.
7. One area where Kopitar can easily pick up some points: the power play. Kopitar is typically good for 25 PPP, but has just one thus far. ONE! And the Kings are not even showing their usual struggles on the power play having scored on 20 per cent of their opportunities. Kopitar just has not been getting in on the scoring and that is mostly random.
8. Jonathan Toews is on pace for just 49 points. He probably finishes closer to 60, but it would not surprise if he finishes a little short. Like Kopitar, Toews could really see a bump on the power play. He has just one PPP despite deployment on the top PP unit. A word of caution, however, Toews has averaged about 14 PPP over the past few seasons so that top unit deployment is not enough to guarantee big production.
9. Marian Hossa, meanwhile, is on pace for just 37 points and that is before you consider his risk for injury. Hossa has already lost three games to injury thus far. He should pick it up a bit, especially on the goal front as he is shooting just 6.1 per cent despite being a career 12.1 per cent shooter. But Hossa saw a significant drop in his shooting percentage last season, finishing at just 8.9 per cent. It is entirely possible that Hossa is entering another phase of his career as a shooter.
10. Fortunately, Hossa has too much hockey sense to simply fade away. Barring injury, he likely gets back on track for, say, 50 points, which is a definite drop from the 60 he has scored the past couple of seasons, but still much better than we are seeing now.
11. Leon Draisaitl will not quit producing. I still have modest overall projections for him given his ludicrous 31.4 shooting percentage is certain to come down, but I will toss out some praise. Draisaitl looks like an excellent fit alongside Taylor Hall. He has good enough offensive skills to not take away from things, but he also understands his role alongside Hall and that is to use his size and speed to drive the net hard and muck it up in the dirty areas. Hall works best with a guy who does not need the puck on his stick to make an impact and clearly Draisaitl is a fit.
12. Given Draisaitl’s continued production I am bumping his year-end projection to 45. That is about a half-point-per-game pace from here on out.
13. Loui Eriksson looks like he might get to 60 this season, which would be quite the bounce-back after several down seasons. A couple of reasons for the jump: an increase in ice time, particularly on the PP, and good health. Eriksson, an otherwise extremely reliable player, really struggled with concussion woes a couple of years ago and it really hurt him even last season. It’s great to see such a talented player able to rediscover his form after these struggles.
14. Martin Jones with another shutout. He is on pace for double-digits in that category, which should tell you one of two things: either Jones is elite or he is due to regress. I lean towards the latter. If I could, for instance, trade Jones for Freddie Andersen, I would do it in a heartbeat.
15. Marc-Edouard Vlasic was held off the scoresheet Thursday after scoring three points in the previous two games. He skated huge minutes, though, and continued to see ice time on the top PP unit. Vlasic is peripheral enough that even with top PP minutes he still may not produce a ton, but he is an intriguing option if you are in a pinch or playing daily fantasy.
16. Matt Duchene is unconscious right now, adding another two goals Thursday. He is now shooting 19.2 per cent on the season. I think you know what to do here. Sell high!
17. It’s not that Duchene isn’t legit – he is – it’s that he isn’t going to score 40 goals, nor is he going to score much more than 60 points. If you can get a guy who should score more than that, then pull the trigger. One example, Claude Giroux. That’s a swap I’d make straight up if I had Duchene right now.
18. Jakob Silfverberg needed an open net, but he scored his first goal of the season Thursday. Despite his many talents it just does not seem Silfverberg has the consistency to push to be better than a 40-point guy. Of course, fantasy owners would take a 40-point guy considering the dreadful start he has had.
19. Sami Vatanen has six points in the past six games. He is probably a 50-point guy, but considering the slow start he may only reach 45 this time around. That still means 36 points over the next 60 or so games, which is a plentiful pace.
20. Some big news here with the NHL set to add a “bye week” with five days off for each team during the 2016-17 season. This stretch will come at some point between January 1 and February 28 and will not be the same for every team. For those in head-to-head leagues, or those in rotisserie leagues without games-played caps, mapping out the schedule before you draft becomes even more important. Otherwise, you risk handicapping your roster with a bunch of players all missing time for a key weekly matchup.
