Every Sunday during the regular season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings.”
1. Matthew Tkachuk had gone 11 games without a goal and was coming off a recent one-game suspension, so he’s been receiving his fair share of criticism. He responded well on Saturday, scoring the game-tying goal and an empty-net goal in the Flames’ 4-2 win over Vancouver. Tkachuk is known more for his chippy play than anything but his goal/assist ratio suggests he is much more of a passer than a shooter. In just over 100 games, Tkachuk has 19 career goals compared to 48 assists.
2. Is Cam Atkinson a great buy-low option? His shooting percentage is down (6.54 5-on-5 SH%, down from the last two seasons) and he’s missed a bit of time because of injury, so the season hasn’t really gotten off the ground. He’s shooting at roughly the same number of shots per game (three SOG/GP), so better luck could result in much stronger second-half splits. So I’d say yes, it’s worth a shot. At the right price, of course.
3. You probably want to use Jimmy Howard at your own risk, as he is 1-4-3 with a 4.64 goals-against average and .836 save percentage in his past nine games. As well, we might start to see Petr Mrazek factor into the Wings’ goaltending situation more than he has. Howard has played over twice as many games (24) as Mrazek has (10) this season.
4. Sam Bennett has put together a hot run with eight points in his last seven games. He has even scrounged some power-play time, although not consistently. He got some run on the second unit last Thursday with Jaromir Jagr out again with injury and Matthew Tkachuk suspended for one game. I am not prepared to buy any Bennett stock. If I have to roll with one of the kids on that line, Mark Jankowski is a better player.
5. Can we take a moment to appreciate how good Jason Zucker is?
From the start of the 2014-15 season, Zucker is just outside the Top 10 in goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. His mark of 1.06 has him 11th, between Evgeni Malkin (1.07) and James Neal (1.06). This year, he’s finally been given some power-play time and Zucker is well on his way to his first 30-goal season.
Remember, when Zucker set a career-best with 22 goals last year, just one came with the man advantage, and he averaged 15 seconds of PP time per contest. He’s over two minutes per game this year and he’s doubled his career PP goal output as a result.
6. Corey Crawford started Friday night’s game for the Blackhawks, meaning he missed just three games with injury. I’m sure the team is happy to have him back seeing as it gave up 11 goals in those three games, losing them all.
It can’t be overstated how much he means to this team. He has a .922 save percentage going back to the lockout season (that’s 274 starts!) and his .930 this year has helped this team stay in the playoff race early on when it was porous defensively. Fantasy owners rejoice and pray no further injuries come.
7. It was the Artemi Panarin show in Newark on Friday night. Five goals for Columbus, five primary assists for Panarin. Truly a night that is hard to top.
Once Panarin’s shooting percentage comes around (he’s under 9 per cent right now despite being over 15 per cent in his first two years), he’ll be fine as a fantasy asset. Power-play points are still an issue and that will limit his upside but getting to 20 goals and 60 points seems reasonable.
8. I dumped Sebastian Aho in one of my shallow leagues for a hotter option, as his scoring pace has teetered right on that edge where he isn’t quite worth universal ownership during his slumps. His 240-SOG pace is awfully intriguing, however. Definitely not a guy to cut in leagues with 12-plus teams. That shot volume gives him a high floor.
9. Clayton Keller last scored a goal on Nov. 6. He has now run up 16 straight games without a goal. He has only six points in that stretch. His shot volume has also fallen off with just 33 SOG in those 16 games. A 2.0 SOG per game is a fine pace but he had thrown up over 3.0 SOG per game over the first month of the season. Scoring woes, reduced shot volume, horrible plus/minus – that’s a trend for waiver fodder in one-year leagues.
Keller is still on pace for 60 points and has a good chance of getting there but he’s not on the shortlist for Calder candidates anymore.
10. Both of Matt Duchene’s goals since joining the Senators have come on the power play. They are giving him every opportunity to succeed using him on the top unit instead of Derick Brassard, whose hot start is fading in the rearview mirror. Has Duchene turned the corner? I’m not there yet. I need another strong showing before jumping in here.
11. If the Ducks survive their injuries to make the playoffs they can also thank Ryan Miller’s superb play. In six starts the veteran backup has boasted a .919 save percentage or higher, earning the Ducks a point in each outing. Indeed, his numbers are off the charts with a .945 save percentage overall. He’s no threat to John Gibson but could go on a nice run if Gibson gets hurt again.
12. The Adam Henrique tenure in Anaheim is off to a roaring start with points in all five contests. He has six points in five games total and is skating all the minutes he can handle with Corey Perry and Rickard Rakell on his wings. Great spot for the time being. Ride him while he remains their top centreman.
13. Since being promoted to the top line, it has been biscuits and gravy for Wayne Simmonds with three goals and four points in three games. Small sample but the Claude Giroux/Sean Couturier halo seems to be helping.
14. More importantly for the Flyers, shuffling Jakub Voracek to the second line has resulted in some depth scoring. Voracek has seven assists through three games, while Michael Raffl has three goals and four points and Valtteri Filppula has one goal and four points.
The person of interest here is likely Raffl, who we have seen go on some hot streaks before. This is a deep option for sure but someone to keep an eye on, especially after he went the first 21 games of the season without recording a point.
[snippet id=3638287]
15. Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin have been on fire since being reunited. Now, I don’t want to attribute everything to that – remember when the whole team was on fire for the first two weeks of the season? – but as long as they keep rolling, it’s only good for the fantasy value of each player.
My big pickup for this week was Tom Wilson, which has worked out better than I could have imagined. The power forward is enjoying his time on the top line with Backstrom and Ovechkin. For example, last Wednesday, he put up a four-point night along with four PIM, three SOG, two hits and two blocked shots. I scooped up Wilson for the peripheral value and potential for a point or two with that top line exposure.
Count me dubious that he has much production value, though, recent hot streak aside. He’ll stay there as long as the goals keep coming, but as soon as those fall off, he’ll be back in the bottom six. That’s not a bad thing – he’s fine as a fourth-line winger, third line in a pinch. I just don’t see him working out long term on the top line.
16. It’s possible that Derrick Pouliot will be the odd man out once Erik Gudbranson returns – it always seems as though there are injuries on the Canucks’ blue line, however. Plus, there’s a possibility that Gudbranson is traded by the deadline, as he’ll be a UFA at season’s end.
17. Can we call it a breakout season for Nathan MacKinnon yet? He’s up to 11 goals and 33 points in 28 games. I can think of two separate instances in which I had MacKinnon queued up to pick at around 140th – 150th overall in a fantasy hockey draft, only to see him grabbed just a few picks before me. If only I picked him one round sooner.
[snippet ID=3322139]
18. Yanni Gourde is within the top 10 in rookie scoring with 20 points (9g-11a) and a plus-12 in 29 games. Gourde’s 17.6 per cent shooting accuracy could mean that he is due for some kind of regression but he has emerged as a true sleeper for a Bolts team that scores at will, leading the league with 3.8 goals per game.
19. Craig Smith has found instant chemistry with the newly acquired Kyle Turris. His ice time and power-play time have also increased over last season, so his stock has undoubtedly increased.
20. The Golden Knights are currently occupying a playoff spot. The team is scoring, isn’t taking many penalties, and its penalty kill is solid. This is keeping Vegas afloat. The Golden Knights also don’t need all-world goaltending to win games. However, if Marc-Andre Fleury can return and perform at a level near what he did for his Penguins career, this team could be even better. All this is great news for Fleury fantasy owners.
[relatedlinks]